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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Looking carefully at that, I could see a few ways that pixeled area could be taken. Perhaps I have angered a MRX met.
  2. That was my "hedgin my bets" post, here is my "embrace the snow weenie" post: 6z para GFS keeps even Knox and Loudon counties all snow.
  3. One thing I'm not super enthused about is that it looks like the trough is starting too tilt a wee bit earlier than I would like. You can see the orientation of the lift go from ENE to NE between 11PM and 6AM I looks to me like that might promote a little more sunshine in eastern valley areas than we would like. Not saying its a deal breaker, but I don't think it's ideal either. It could be I'm a little jumpy too, lol.
  4. Honestly not sure, but that could be something that is happening.
  5. The 18z Euro's evolution: Is it starting to sniff out some end game action from the left over energy with the trough?
  6. Might be a NAMing incoming. Big jump on the SREF ARW members east between 15z and 21z 21z: 15z: SREF NMB members look pretty similar to me to 15z, (which was closer to the above, 21z ARW)
  7. Yeah it looked a little SE to me, but it's been so close the past 4 runs I couldn't tell for sure.
  8. Already below my low of 19, at 18. If I'm counting rain drops tomorrow, it won't be through lack of the HPs effort. Arctic air still squeezing out moisture even as the sky clears. This video is looking SE and the sky has already cleared across the valley: I don't know that I can remember a situation like this. Arctic air sweeping in, moisture coming back tomorrow. Skies are clearing and we should get some hours of radiational cooling before the high clouds move back in.
  9. Wow, it's close to being all snow just north of me on the plateau. Maybe even for me.
  10. I feel like it has done well in modeling the boundary layer issues I've had with storms here vs other modeling. That said, I can't remember how far the lead time was for it nailing those,. It's still pretty far out in HRRR land right now.
  11. One more jump or two and the NAM will look a lot like everything else.
  12. NAM 3km has been a little steadier, but IMO it also made a jump south at 18z :
  13. 850 wind trend past 6 runs too: There' certainly still rug pull potential for sure, but that trend, if not our friend, is at least friendlier.
  14. The 18z NAM is still the warmest model and most aggressive with the warm nose, but let's also consider the trend it has over the past 6 runs:
  15. Euro Control and ensemble members for le thump:
  16. Still interested to see what happens with the trailing bits of energy as the system(s) evolve over the next couple of days:
  17. 12z Euro maintains its thumpage:
  18. Yeah this is the first time I've had access to soundings from some of these models and the differences between what the precip type says, what the precip type shows on the model output, and what the sounding looks like seem a little wonky.
  19. Look how close the above sounding is to an all snow sounding, from over my head:
  20. Here's how the RAP sees the precip types: Here's what it sees as the sounding around Chatt at 2 AM Thursday: It says rain, but shows mix and it is sooooo close with that forcing to being all snow.
  21. I wish Jack Sillin was doing what he did for that storm a few days ago, where he used RAOB data to analyze model output. That was helpful. Would be nice to see how what's left of the TPV is acting like a pseudo 50/50 low and causing confluence over NE, vs how models are seeing it. NAM seems to be playing catch up with that feature, but being the warmest model, it could still be right with eventual evolution, even if how it sees us getting there is wrong, lol.
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