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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Tobiewx how farest ye?
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    There are places near TRI that beat me by ten degrees this PM that are now colder than me by a few degrees.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    The Carter Fold is at least cooling off now, lol. Maces Springs was near 56 this afternoon, already back down to 40 now. HRRR for the win at TRI?
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    And of course as soon as I type that I go check the 18z soundings and they still look good, just not as good, lol.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think it is just going to come down to who gets right on that edge of the heaviest precip and can keep it snow the longest. It's a question of where the firehose sets up, and Nashville probably thinks it's more likely over Cumberland County. I really do think 3-5 and maybe more is right, for whoever gets under the firehose. It is going to absolutely rip. Every sounding I have looked at from every model shows great forcing into the DGZ, they just differ on 700mb - the surface temps.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    MRX AFD is up. excerpt: "For this evening and tonight, strong jet structure will move across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. Some models are so a 300mb jet of 165-170kts over the Ohio valley. Models show very strong upper divergence with the jet configuration between 04-09Z. The Ageostrophic Vertical Circulation with the jet will produce dynamic cooling as well as the wet bulb cooling due to initial dry airmass. A period of heavy snow (some sleet) is possible across the Plateau, western sections of the Tennessee valley, northeast Tennessee, and southwest Virginia. The strong warm air advection and isentropic lift will produce widespread precipitation. Eventually the warm air advection will win out with model soundings show precipitation transitioning to rain area-wide soon after daybreak."
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was about to say that, lol. Maybe we can time that last section of clearness for a quick few degree drop.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Rates overcame!
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like we get one more clear section and sun before sunset:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    They took my MoCo reverse dollop away. Sad.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Closer to Memphis:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Well it's 343 PM. The NAMs are out and the 12km didn't look too terrible for the plateau west. Now what? Too early for booze and all hope isn't 100% lost yet, at least for me. I guess it's watch the webcams time. Here's some snow near AMZ just east of Memphis: https://smartway.tn.gov/traffic?features=incident,traffic,cameras&position=35.13802557,-89.4291555,13
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wish I could have a drone I could legally fly up to 500mb at times like this, lol, for my own private soundings.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Careful Tellico, you're gonna pull me back off my ledge...
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm thinking even on the edge of the plateau on Morgan County here I'm SOL. 37/25. Expect John and Cumberland county crew to do better though. If this does flop for me, what a flop. Powdery high ratio snow all day yesterday with CAA, to rain and 33 this evening. 1030+ arctic high over the Great Lakes and a low of 15 overnight. Apparently going with the warmest model is just a good rule of thumb for areas south of Canada now. The NAM even tried to come around for a few runs, lol.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think they’ve just lucked out wrt cloud cover today.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    It ain't too far from the truth, lol. I thought I took a pic of that a few weeks ago in Kingsport, but I didn't, so I had to improvise.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    They firing up that torch on Jared drive? For those of you who don't know, Kingsport has a giant propane heater they fire up if snow is threatening. Quite effective.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Monterey is at 30, so that makes me feel a little better about my 28, lol
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Selfishly pulling for teh para GFS with all I got, lol: Clouds have moved back in here. We jumped up to 28, lol after 17 at day break. DP c. 21 in my area.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Come on clouds, you can do it:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z NAM still ticking south (if just barely) past 5 runs:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Going to start trying to do some timelapses, now that I have a tripod. experiment one, hoping to catch some of the red clouds this AM:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro jumped west a bit:
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