Holston_River_Rambler

Euro seems to be wanting to go for a western ridge out in fantasy land, and that would align with Carver's thoughts. Good news dwagner, latest Euro aims the firehose along I 40: aligns with the WPC's thinking: That western ridge would def. be a welcome break from what seems like will be a rather wet week.

The National Blend of Models this AM says start warming up those floaties All OP runs overnight look similar.

Hopefully the NAO can flex again in early March and knock this down a bit, buuuutttttttttt......starting to see hints of the "hydrological concerns" pattern trying showing up on the ensemble means: EPS mean: GEFS mean: Some of the OP runs look yucky too: GFS: para GFS: Euro: It's hit and miss with these sorts of OP runs though, so like I said above hopefully an NAO can flex enough to keep it south of the TN Valley watershed, (or it could just help create a funnel between it and the SE ridge as a boundary keeps getting hung up over our area ) [runs and hides and buys an ark or two]

Honestly, I can't complain too much. I would say I have a total 7" on the year, better than the last two for sure. I think its maybe just the first time I've been posting on these boards where there have been so many chances that were truly near misses. 2 full days of sunshine now, is doing wonders for the snow batteries. Pattern looks progressive for at least the next week, so should have a nice balance of rain vs sun days. I suspect the Euro has lost the late week system only to bring it back in some form or another once it is in Hi-res range.

State o the state for future reference:

Nail. On. The. Head. I was thinking yesterday that we have had a clown map to look at almost every week this winter. As soon one marginal mess scoots out, the digital jinn whip up a new mid range threat that has ping-ponged back and forth over the course of 7 - 10 days, to what you said above. It seems like the past few winters we get maybe two periods like that. Usually one in early December and another somewhere later. This winter it has just been one after another. I guess NAOs let us live in interesting times (I'm fully ready for this statement to be bookmarked when I start blabbering on about the Pacific). But "interesting times" can be a curse, lol. I feel like (speaking only for myself) that I just need a recharge for a couple of weeks, and I think that also speaks to Big Bald's point above. Just 2 days of sun have done wonders for my interest in the storm. It's doubled from 0.05% to 0.10%. I would 100% buy what the Euro and GFS are selling for next week, if it was actually for sale. Maybe I have reverse jinxed us now! Gonna stick my neck out and say EPS member 38 is where this one is going to end up: I'm using the traditional "the map will look like how my yard looked after 6 hours of rain on 2 inches of snow" forecasting method.

Now I see it:

Also, someone is going to have to point out the doggo to me from the CMC's map.

So cold, like stone.

Oh no....

I put it in banter because I just couldn't face it at this point, lol. I'm hugging the CMC:

12z GFS 12z para

Before anyone says anything, I'm not saying winter is over at this point. But I do think many of us could use a couple of weeks of warm weather to recharge our snow weenie batteries. And sunshine, don't forget the sun. Just don't look at the para GFS 15 day precip totals if you value your sanity, lol.

Let's chase 70 for a few days! Will it prove as elusive as snowfall? Ensembles like our chances in the 8 - 12 day period. Euro Op for next Wed: But there's a TC near the Philippines that could foul things up (probably after next week, if it does anything), depending on how it interacts with the flow over the NH: You may also notice that there is a trough moving through East Asia, too: Have to see what jax thinks about that.

I think I changed to rain around 1:45 AM. Got up, looked out, nary a snow flake. We probably got 2.5" before the changeover, enough so that everything is still covered in snow right now.

Back to bed now. Gotta get my beauty rest if I want to wake up and see that rain before sun up.

Around an inch up here in Morgan County and rippin'.

Heavy doodle dogs right now here in Morgan County:

33/28. Nothing falling here yet.

B+

34/28

Here comes the fire hose: Now, I know some of that is bright banding as snow is melting, but the main thrust of the precip. is aimed right at East TN. Which means the best lift is aimed here too. Obs. indicate rates are sometimes overcoming the warm nose in places.

Latest HRRR gives me the finger, in a good way: Note, I would never mouse over the highest accumulation spot in that purple finger and claim it was over me....

What was your high today up that way?