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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't quite feel like this winter has, as Carvers would say, "shown its hand" yet. To be fair, it is November 24 though. There just isn't anything that has jumped out to me as a death knell or a reason to be very excited. There have been things that have looked horrible in the medium to long range (Pac configuration) or awesome, (-NAO), but neither has turned out to be a deal breaker or maker in the short range. Currently, both OP models have some things of interest in the medium to long range: Euro Pac jet looks interesting: 500 mb on GFS looks interesting in the AO region: There are some interesting things on the GFS's OP longish range (10 -15 day) tropical forecast that are reflected on some EPS members, but not sure how much stock to put in them at this time. No Isotherm outlook yet either. He suggested in his critique of his own work that he would have benefited from waiting until the end of November last year, so maybe that's what he is doing.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Blue Moon can we get some Lake effect pictures to hold us over until the AMO flips? Pretty Please??
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Incontestable proof, proof I say, that EPS Member 8 loves us and wants us to be happy (days 13 - 15 anyway):
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    For one of the few times I can remember, the RMM plots looks pretty similar between the operational GFS and Euro: Euro RMM: GFS RMM: GEFS RMM: In terms of atmospheric convection, there seems to be a pretty good spread all across the W Pac and Maritime Continent: Western Pac had petered out a bit for a couple of days (at least that's how it seemed to me), but looks sorta healthy again. Michael Ventrice has a cool new way to visualize the way tropical convection helps modulate the Pac jet: source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/maps/mjo/global_analyses.html You can watch the jet extend as the VP200 anomalies drift east. To me, it looks like the MJO wave is trying to creep towards the western Pac, but weakening a bit as it does so. Last but not least we have the Paul Roundy Waves page: source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html I think that animation is showing the heights at 300mb as they might evolve through mid December, given similar situations in the tropics (but I may be totally misusing or misinterpreting that data and animation). If someone has a better read on the Roundy data, please let me know so I can use it in a better way.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ I'm stealing the below observation from someone on Twitter yesterday, but no matter what happens with the storm early next week it will be interesting to see how that helps develop (or hurts) any sort of NAO block after next week. 0z GFS pumps up the heights , but then scootches it all out to the east. If that were to roll back west, it could create some interesting scenarios: IMO, the Pac jet is partly why that scootches on east, so if I were betting, I would go with the scootch option right now, but the atmosphere is chaotic, so if the trajectory of the Pac jet is slightly different, I guess it could maybe help roll it back west. It's also interesting that there seems to be a tendency for storms to want to develop along the east coast and try to pump up those heights: [sorry for the different parameter, but weathermodels doesn't have PVU for the Euro and I used the Control since I can get "sort of" an operational run for the ECMWF past 240 hours. ] Someone mentioned in the general weather sub forum, while they were talking about the idea of a 1981-82 analogue, that 1981's Dec had a honking -NAO and a -PNA. I suppose that is one possible iteration if these storm keep trying to scoop up positive heights and build them over Greenland.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro and GFS gave us a nice thanksgiving week present overnight. 0z Euro 6z GFS: At this much of a time remove, probably not a lot to get excited about, but there were a couple ensemble hits later in Thanksgiving week. MJO convection looks pretty dispersed to me: Looks like the RMMs have it in the COD. I could be wishcasting, but I don't think I remember seeing that much convection in the equatorial region of the N. hemisphere that far east, on the Himawari 8 satellite.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was able to get a few photos at Frozen Head yesterday before the end o' the leaves:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Emory River at Oakdale yesterday evening: Fine November evening. You could feel the air blowing into the canyon and hitting the cliffs that had been warmed by the sun all day. The temp of the water and on the water was in the 50s, but every once in a while you would get a breeze that had hit those warm cliffs and it felt spectacular. Even caught exactly one smallmouth, lol.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some nice E TN snowfall bitterness in the comments on that post too, lol!
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not here, sadly. There does seem to be a touch of hoarfrost on a spruce tree atop Beech Mt.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the low clouds got me here. We've leveled off in the mid to upper 30s this AM.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    True. I’d say tonight will hit my area pretty hard. Already in the low 40s here.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Leaves are pretty prime here in Morgan County right now. Even still quite a bit of rusted green just on the verge of turning in Frozen Head State Park.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    What do y'all think. Is the end of week system coming NW? It is only November after all, but gotta get warmed up chasing missed phases and NW trends somehow: This may jinx it, but I kinda suspect someone gets NAM'd between 12z tomorrow and 18z Wed. Even if it is only places above 3000' lol.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    So close, lol:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I swear John, I was just thinking yesterday, that we were in that window where it seems like this version of the Euro likes to wrap up a piece of energy dump some snow on someone, lol. Here is the evolution of the storm to go alongside John's map above: Here is the EPS (I'll just put Jacksboro up as the high end of the EPS til we get closer):
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting satellite imagery this PM: Almost looks like a low level low spinning up near Knox That arrow shaped dry punch is rolling in overhead and really cranked up the wind here.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Fantasy Miller B and a flurry for Blunderstorm on the 0z GFS!!! If we get snow on All Saints Day instead of Halloween it is a 150% better omen for winter...right??
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Todd Howell said a possible velocity couplet passed over my house. I was not impressed, the rain was pretty intense though.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Front just blasted through here in Morgan County. No doubts when it came through, lol. Enjoy all y'all further east as it heads off the plateau!
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Any updates from @TellicoWx NWS Morristown used this image on one of their social media platforms, even though I think it is from WATE
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I meant to post those a couple of weeks ago. Went back to Big South Fork today and was able to get some nice T-Storm development:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some pics from the confluence of Obed and Clear Creek in mid summer: Big South Fork, near Leatherwood ford:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    PDO action from Raindance:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Fortunately I've been with the "haves", in terms of rains this month. Until yesterday, lol. Been out on the rivers a lot, trying to enjoy the summer and catch smalljaws and trout. Here are some river/ weather pics: Emory river, N. of Oakdale, looking SSE: Clear Creek, just north of Jett Bridge: Clinch river, below Norris dam, in a heavy shower: Emory river, just SE of Nemo Access as a storm drops in from the N:
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