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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is my first system here where I am almost directly up wind of Frozen Head and Cross mt. I'm wondering how it plays out if that lift sets up just right
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe, wrt to precip outputs, the model thinks moisture isn't quite making it into the DGZ. I clicked on a sounding on the HRRR in that ZR and it was 10 degrees and sub freezing through the whole profile.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Latest NBM ticked up quite a bit. 4 run trend:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the CMC is lining up for a hit too at 12z
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z HRRR: 12z HRRR:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Twere a good un: I trie to make a trend gif, but weatherbell doesn't go back to the 6z that ran out that far
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nice satellite imagery this AM, good Gulf moisture fetch as teh cold from makes its way through TN and KY:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    If this works out Greyhound, you have to put that snowman jack-o-lantern thingy up every year.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    WPC probabilities of greater than 4"
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM with special effects: Thanks for all the updates overnight for my sleepy butt.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro: 4 run snow Euro trend:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe we need to consult @Greyhounds snowman jack-o-lantern model
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM is so amped it is trying for a gulf low late in the run. Mini miller A
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's that Nina programming
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    But to be fair to Heather Haley, WPC seemed to like the NAMish solution as of 15z:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Well SREF plumes should be out. Any one want to venture a NAM guess based on those?
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    It looked like earlier in the video she had some sort of a meteogram up with several model snowfall totals.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Look, I get it, I'm sorry for her. No matter what happens she is going to have a bunch of idiots messaging the WVLT studio, harassing her and her family. I suspect she is trying to temper expectations for viewers.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    If her only reasoning is diurnally driven temperatures.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    She basically seems to be going with the NAM graphic and describing the snow to rain transition based on diurnal heating. Time stamp is around 6 minutes in.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I thought Ninas normally favored suppression and out to sea, which to me would fit this trend. Aren't Ninas when places further to our south usualy get good snows? Where's that juicy Nino STJ when you need it lol.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    For those wanting the Euro output, here you go:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the Euro Machine Learning models for those interested: There are more than 2 ML models, but only 2 have precip panels available
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Is that the RRFS?
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's the MSLP running into middle TN that makes me a little nervesome: A little more dig and we can get a clean Miller A, Mobile to Hatteras.
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