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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thanks for the heads up on the Ukie, I hadn't even thought to look at it this AM.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Strangely enough, the EPS members from 0z were the best look I've seen from that ensemble for the late weekend system, despite the fact that the OP was washed out: I mean, its still not great, but kind of surprising considering we are within around 5 days now and the OP was so washed out. 6z GEFS has some pretty good hits too, but also some duds.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah NCEP was having some data issues
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    File this one away in the "GFS was about to create an epic Gulf storm" file: It wouldn't be a winter if I didn't get this gif out at least once: I mean it isn't really the same, but there is a N stream piece racing to catch a southern stream vort. over the NW Gulf.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z GFS back to a nice wave riding the front idea. In fact, I like the 12z's take pretty well: There's an extra piece of vorticity that dives in and helps amp the wave that was trying to flatten. That scenario pops a lee side low in the Upstate of SC, and that is pretty nice for eastern sections.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    The late overnight OP runs seem to be trending towards more of a washed out, positively tilted wave in a fast flow for the late weekend critter: GFS trend through 6z today: Euro trend through 0z last night: Luckily the ensembles still have a pretty wide spread of possible solutions, so its not over, yet: I suspect we get at least one good digital snow NAMing or SREF'ing out of this one. Although the Euro ensembles are stingy wrt to snow, the stubborn EPS RMM plot finally at long last wait for it wait a little longer ok next jump, I promise just kidding ok ok, made it to 8: Look, I know it is just a complicated set of variables mapped onto a plot, and that BOM's ensembles and some of the North American ones had been showing that for a while, but they kept slowing it down, so maybe we are finally going to get something the stubborn, but ultimately more accurate EPS members are seeing to reshuffle the nasty Pac. Our pesky TC near Darwin is fin ally on the move, but there still is to much lift near Darwin to substantially raise the barometric pressure there: To me, that satellite image has RMM 6/7 border written all over it. Here are the overnight long range ensembles (EPS, GEPS, and finally GEFS), giphified: Looks like in the semi medium range, they all like that ridge north of Alaska now.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy hour GFS still has the storm, but it is stronger and a bit further north. There is a solid band of snow running from Memphis to Lexington. Springfield, TN is the big winner with 16.6 inches on the 18z.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    So far it looks like it wants to send the Alaska/ Aleutians ridge packing:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS members for through 7 days: Control:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pivotal was first with accum. maps so here is the Kuchera map:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are all the pretty Euro colors:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was going to say GFS like and "lite," but I actually think it is going to end up better on this run.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    WRT the late weekend system, it looks like the Euro is going to be pretty GFS-like.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukmet looks more GFSy than CMCy:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the run on the GFS: Looks like the 850 low tracks from Starkville, MS to around Dayton,TN, then towards Damascus, VA: Probably way too soon to be looking at things like the 850 low track. but I'm happy that there is something to track, for now.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Energy is digging more at 12z on the GFS. The low is going to come close to rounding the base of the Apps through N GA.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Since we've been watching the SOI lately, I thought it was interesting that the pressure in Tahiti was back down to what it was when the SOI was so negative a few days ago: For the "Nino" look, I think you want higher pressure over Darwin and lower pressure over Tahiti, indicating that convection is further east in the Pacific. There's still a tropical cyclone near Darwin, so if we could get that sucker to scootchle on ESE, maybe we'll see the SOI trend more negative. WRT the MJO, the Euro is trying its hardest: Normally we've done well with these "wave riding a front" thingys lately, but there's an extry complication for our possible friend this weekend, lurking in the eastern Pac: I haven't really had to look at the GOES 17 satellite lately, but noticed some convection on the eastern edge of Himawari 8 (the satellite I usually use to watch convection lingering over the Maritime Continent) and so I checked it out. I was immediately impressed by the fat that I think you can just see the La Nina in the low cloudiness. Whatever it is, I outlined it in blue. But the critter that is interesting to me is the one I circled in red. It's an energetic little shortwave, cutoff under the massive GOA ridge. I made this gif go kind of fast, but watch the energy spin and linger and supply some energy and moisture to the wave that drops down the Pac coast, starting around hour 60. : There's a dual jet structure with the precip. we have coming this week, through the wave riding a front scenario late this weekend: I think the precip. amounts overperform for this week, but the fact that we have so much interaction between waves and cutoffs will make for big swings and complications for later in the weekend. But hey, we seen to do pretty good with these scenarios lately, so hopefully those odds are in our favor. If you read all that, here's a present, the Euro, GFS, and CMC ensembles for the potential next weekend:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just an aside, but check out this N Hemisphere pattern we get on the GFS wrt MSLP at around hr 220:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Since we're throwing some obs. in here today, I had a little visitor for yard work this afternoon: Kind of eerie with the fog this AM:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    On a side note, the 12z Euro splits the SPV at 50 mb: GFS ain't having much of it: Still, it is under some stress at that level. The Euro even tries hard for a split at 10mb, but doesn't quite get there. The ever popular 3D vortex rendering gets some hits and wobbles at the lower levels, but looks stout overall:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think I can see the circulation you're talking about in the post just above mine. I think it is possible that helps reinforce some ridging in the NAO area. Lots of concern with the Pac across the weather forums and rightly so, but that's a sneaky pattern you've pointed out. It will be interesting to see how it evolves.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS: CMC: Euro: And the extended control, just for good measure:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Merry Christmas y'all! Here's some ensemble gif presents GEFS: EPS GEPS: FWIW I think the reason the GEPS and GEFS have more of a SE ridge late in the run, is because they lose the -NAO. Hopefully that feature will prove more stubborn.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the big +SOI jump is more Ninaish, but that is partly due to a TC basically sitting on top of Darwin: It may fall back off after that TC moves off to the east.
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