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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    It seems like the GFS has been trying maybe one out of every 2 or 3 runs, to try to bury some energy in the gulf. Here are 9 runs centered on 12z Thursday, January 13: I count 2/3 of those runs showing either a vort of some form in the Gulf or diving towards it. The Euro Control overnight had something similar. I wish I had access to its relative vorticity maps for a more similar comparison, but the best I have is the 500mb wind: As far as I can tell, this is the first time the Control has shown something like this. All of it is a way, way out there in time, but anything remotely resembling energy diving towards the Gulf is always something I'm interested in. Overnight extended range ensemble gifs: (nice ending look IMO on the GEFS above) Most RMM plots look fairly similar now. I'll use the Euro since IMO it has been the most consistent with the MJO mess: Just looking at the tropical convection in the western Pac, I don't see much to get too excited about, but I guess we'll see:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    By popular demand I went ahead and updated the title and initial description post for this thread.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    But hey, at least the 18z Euro looks marginally better for Sunday night.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I need more beer than I have after that ending.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Little nervous about this game. IMO Perdue is good and although I haven’t kept up with them at all, based on the commentary and how they’re playing (that fullback!) I suspect they were a few red zone plays away from a much better bowl than Music City.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I went ahead and rolled the dice.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    That one went over my head, lol. Good opening run for the second half, let's hope that portends well for the Hooker-Tillman connection.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is def. one where I think ground temps will play a role. Couple hours of moderate snow would be a win IMBY.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Will the Eastman Bubble rob Hawkins county? Does the 18z GFS on 12/30 know something we don't? Will Hooker connect with Tillman again in the second half? Time will tell.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    That represents the ENE wind from a 992 cyclone in the NC piedmont blowing the EB @Carvers Gap slightly off kilter.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    We're turning this into the TIMS thread. Thunder in the mountains model? Can it equal snow afterwards? If so, does severe weather = heavier snow? We'll know by January 3rd, lol.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    What do y'all think? Thread? It's halftime so we need something to do.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM coming in rather amped: Could just be the NAM being the NAM, but Masiello had a good argument on twitter late last night for the possibility of a more amped solution:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Can’t post any gifs right now since I’m in Knoxville on my phone but Euro 12z looks pretty unchanged from 6z wrt the Sunday wave @Flash yeah I was just referring to the Nam dumping snow at range.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    But you know what we are starting to get in range of as of 9z??? That's right, you guessed it, SREF plumes baby!!
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overall, I'd say 6z Euro is pretty similar to its 0z run.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry, I would normally do a single post for 6z, but the NAMeve gets a special one. 6z GFS was even better, especially for NE TN and SW VA:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ladies and gentlemen, children of all ages, it's that most sacred time of the year. First NAMing of the year was imminent at 6z. It's like Christmas Eve. It's not a true NAMing, but you know its coming.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some of the most vivid lightning I’ve seen in a while! Mostly off to the SE of me here in MoCo.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro looking ever so slightly less constricted and a little less positively tilted with the energy as it approaches the Mississippi: 12z 18z Here's the 18z GFS in the same color scheme for comparison:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    You could really see it well on radar this AM, (this is not a current radar image) But like you said it's trying to lift back north now.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was meaning the line I've drawn in blue. It was really interesting up here in MoCo this AM. Left my house for a run at Frozen Head and it was ~ 61 Got to Frozen Head (~5 miles N of my house) and it was a cool 57. It wasn't a huge temp drop, but distincvtive.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I've been impressed with how visible one of the boundaries is on satellite, pretty much all day: It almost follows the TN river
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Bigbald Part of it is how much the shortwave digs. The CMC is a much flatter look, so you don't get a SLP to develop and strengthen as far south: CMC: GFS The amplification of that shortwave has a lot to do with how they handle the big ridge over AK and the PNA ridging CMC: GFS: The GFS rotates the ridging equatorward, and that helps the shortwave dig downstream. Th CMC rotates it westward and so not as much amplification is forced.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm just kind of wary of a rug pull. But that's probably just a personal problem with me lol. The NAM looked good at the end of its run. The SLP was running way out N and E near Erie, PA ahead of the shortwave digging out the trough over the Red River valley: The energy dropping in looked better on the 6z Euro to, compared to 0z.
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