Holston_River_Rambler

Although he is talking about the mid Atlantic, I think some of that applies to NE TN and SW VA.

Nice catch from the MA thread about the meteorology of the system:

I know, I'm the same way. Literally was just thinking, "Is this even real? WTF is happening?" as I was reading the NWS Blacksburg disco

6z Euro bumps totals up again:

Or I guess I could have been smart and just used the WPC one:

The boundary our low will ride overnight is setting up: I guess this is one of the reasons we always want to see the shortwave tilt negatively, so that it backs the low level flow and pulls the slp back N, in this case (hopefully), tucks it up on the leeside of the Apps. You can see the flow starting to back on satellite over central AL as higher clouds build back in from south to north:

I just want to make sure that y’all know that my soil temp post earlier was in no way meant to suggest that accumulation would be more or less. I saw that some folks on southernwx were bringing soil temps up, so I thought “hmmmm I wonder what those look like here in Morgan county.” I checked it out and saw that they were quite variable depending on the boundary layer and was impressed at how quickly they could lower.

IMO a NAMing incoming.

0z NAM already deeper and slower as soon as hour 14.

And think that's fair. TBH I'm probably hand-wringing a little bit about it. I think there will be some micro climates come in to play tomorrow night that I've never gotten to see before, wrt the energy and slp track, and I'm pretty happy about that.

If I had to make a call, I’d say travel at elevations above 2500 feet is no bueno tomorrow pm and overnight, but less certain below that elevation.

I think the conundrum they face is wrt travel impacts. That’s what their products are really for, while people like me at least are chasing just heavy snow on radar and deck pics. It’ll be interesting to see how the roads hold up after such warm weather.

I think the conundrum they face is wrt travel impacts. That’s what their products are really for, while people like me at least are chasing just heavy snow on radar and deck pics. It’ll be interesting to see how the roads hold up after such warm weather.

Here is a gif of the HRRR. Such a nice evolution for the northeastern valley:

Vivid lightning and thunder up here on the plateau. TIMS model is hopefully holding steady here at 1z.

18z Euro: as usual, the precip type maps are late, but here is the qpf:

Sadly you have tapped out my knowledge at my post above. I would go over to southern and ask Webb about what exactly the VPs mean. Divergent winds and jet modulation is sadly about as far as I have gotten so far.

As I understand it @Mr. Kevin, convection in the tropics modulates Hadley cells, which in turn modulate the jets. Here are a couple of images: source: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Schematic-of-the-Hadley-circulation-Abbreviations-TTL-Tropical-tropopause-layer_fig1_322886947 Source: https://www.saltworkconsultants.com/hadley-cells-and-deserts/ As to why we want it over the central Pac, I think that helps strengthen the Sub tropical jet (thus El Nino years are usually wetter than average in the southeast) but it could also be that anywhere is better than the 4/5/6 areas, when it comes to modulating the pattern for folks in the eastern US. Also keep in mind that which phase is good for us can change depending on the season and situation. So a VP plot shows where there are divergent winds aloft, modulating the Hadley cells as seen in the above image Example: Green colors indicate divergent winds aloft created by convection, while orange colors indicate convergent winds aloft. I can't find a current image, but Michael Ventrice has created some plots that show how the divergent winds modulate the jet (sorry the colors are different) TBH, I don't really know how all this correlates to the RMMs, but they were created by Wheeler and Hendon to help monitor the MJO and they use several variables to plot the circulation, in addition to VP anomalies. Here is info regarding the MJO calculation: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/MJO_summary.pdf (see section III) There are other details to consider, but for my hobby purposes, I usually start by looking at the RMMs in the morning, then the satellite of the Western Pac using the Himawari 8 found below, to try and see how tropical convection looks https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=10848&y=10848&z=0&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps[borders]=white&lat=0&p[0]=geocolor&opacity[0]=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

Here it is:

@Mr. Kevin Sorry I saw that you asked about the MJO earlier, but I've hyperventilating about the current system. This is probably the best I've seen convection look in the central Pac in a while: It is south of the equator, so not sure exactly how that squares with the MJO. Ventrice's VP plots to have an interesting evolution: Roundy's analogue page does show what seems to me like a sensible progression through the 3rd week of January: SOI also dropped to 3.82 today.

Wow at the RAP.

In regard to soil temps, I will say that they seem to be able to crash back down pretty quickly (12/18 - 12/20)

Do any of y'all remember the "Dandridge Dollop" storm? This one just dolloped me here in Morgan county in the same way, lol:

Happy hour requires the COD webpage color scheme: