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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ok, I will be in Western NC for the next two days. Do I need to recreate a scene from Twister for the 12/23 possibility, or will that jinx it? Does being at or above 850 MB help or hurt? I'm willing to humiliatingly abase myself in gif format for the high end of this potential system.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS temp charts for 12z: I think one member has a high of 0 and a low of -5 on 12/23. Man, what an ensemble mean though for that day!
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the magical overnight Euro run: That sucker is a hair's breadth from being a mythical storm. Scenario: SE ridge flexes just enough to make the initial vort amp a bit more as it moves over the NW Gulf. PNA ridge pumps up enough to push the main vort, essentially a TPV lobe, on a track that pushes it from KS --> OK --> Louisiana. That baroclinic zone would make a storm that we would never forget. As it stands, here is the pretty output from last nights run: Wind chills: Kuchera snowfall: Of course the Euro has, over the past couple of years since its most recent upgrades, tended to overamp storms at this range. 6z GFS OP is basically a non event aside from a few flurries. 0z EPS support the idea of at least som snow for plateau areas to the east: as do the 0z GEFS members:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    The rain has absolutely poured here all day today. 2-3 was the WPC call, but I think 3 - 5 might be better once this moves out by 12z tomorrow: Found an otter pond at 3000' in Frozen Head SP, wonder how it will look tomorrow, lol:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro looking like a compromise between the 12z GFS and 12z CMC at 500 mb.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll call that a step in the right direction for the Euro:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS member 33 would be a nice Christmas present:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pretty chilly EPS mean for the Christmas time frame and there are some down right arctic members that look like the 18z GFS:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS looks like it will not follow the OP:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just saw that there was a 40 year record low in Siberia.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry you've had such a rough year, I hope the upcoming one is 1000000 times better!
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z GFS has re introduced the idea of some upslope this weekend, Euro has the vort that causes it on the GFS too, but doesn't show any precip. Maybe we can squeeze out a snow shower or two?
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    There's definitely been can kicking, but I think some of that gets settled, at least with regards to the pattern, once this huge cut off upper low gets out of the way over this next weekend. I really wish we could have gotten some upslope this weekend though since I'm going to be in Boone. Upslope is a pretty hard one to screw up, even for our area, so I'll call that a can punt. Its reminiscent of a certain infamous punt from the GA TN game this year.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z GFS gives TN a nice I 40 storm at hr 174. Ideal levels of suppression at range after that.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Regardless of the specific outcome, the GFS REALLY wants a big storm somewhere in our forum area around the 23rd. Seems like its been trying to show something since that period came into range.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I liked the 0z GFS, it was fun! It actually maintained a bit of continuity at 6z in its med - long range, in there there is a general chance of cold and wintry weather. But it spat out a fun solution for the snow showers associated with the upper low late next week. You've heard of orographic lift snows in a NW flow, you've heard of an upper level cold pool causing instability, well... I give you positive vorticity advection snow from SW --> NE on the backside of a huge upper low! Maybe it just counts as a clipper at that point? Rut Roh though, the Euro abandoned us to GFS despair at 0z: It doesn't so much get sheared out as the GFS had been suggesting, as it is able to just move ENE. The CMC also took a jump NE and looks like a compromise between the 0z Euro and 6z GFS, but favors the GFS's depiction. EPS members took a hit a 0z too, but there are still a good number of members who see the opportunity: plateau: mts: For those who like upslope, hopefully this is just a blip in these OPs and maybe the actual block will hold a bit better. *Holston cringes silently since he is planning on being in Boone next weekend*
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some of the 18z GEFS members till have the upslope as well.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just on the GFS as far as I can tell. It looks about the same on the Euro and CMC.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z GFS jumped in a big way toward how the Euro and CMC were handling the system next week. Hopefully that is a sign that it is handling things poorly right now because its long range looked warm.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    You put that a lot better than I did. But that was what I was trying to get at.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ehh 6z GEFS seems to be a bit more optimistic than earlier runs about the upslope next week:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll add that the EPS is pretty enthused about at least snow showers and flurries next week on the plateau and mts: Plateau: Mts: But, is the GFS the new Dr. No? Even if it is ultimately wrong, can it effectively show how things could go south?
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight ensembles: EPS GEFS GEPS GEFS is definitely in ints own world with regards to the SE ridge and troughs in the western trough. But I'm kind of in what can go wrong, may go wrong mode right now... hopefully that's just a personal problem lol
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Someone in the MA forum linked to this today. Some good insights into how the CPC folks see the pattern evolving: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ For me, it was striking how much came down to La Nina probabilities. Not saying they are wrong to do that, but the whole write up was fascinating in terms of trying to see how the pros reason through medium to long range forecasting. Some good MJO disco in there too.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    The big storm that was going to be a big front next week has almost turned into a Miller B on the 6z GFS. The GFS depicts the low transfer from Dubuque, Iowa to Cape Fear
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