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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the post I'm referring to:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    The ridge just squishes it. But if csnavywx was right, and models are breaking down the ridge too quickly, that would allow the northern stream to line up more with the southern vort like on the 12z CMC. If that ridge holds up just a little longer, there is more amp opportunity with that healthy vort as it ejects.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think this run is just going to stretch out the first vort too much.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Bob Chill mentioned in the MA forum that it might get cut off, and as deep as it is digging here at 18z, I could see that. Sorry I should have added that the above is the trend over the past 4 runs.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Since 0z today on the GFS the initial vort for the weekend system has shifted from Nebraska to Lake Powell at hr 99
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    csnavywx had a good post in the MA forum about the weekend storm, mentioning that he thought that the systems ability to dig and amp was dependent on the breakdown of the ridge off of the west coast. The slower that was to break down, the better chance our storm had. So far the ridge is looking better on the 18z run.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I do want to add that there are other good H5 looks for us (bowling ball upper lows, overrunning, clippers), but that 93 gif is top tier for this kind of a phased bomb storm that the models keep trying to pop somewhere along the coast.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Man, if you just shifted the CMC's evolution by a couple hundred miles southwest.... as much as these runs have been jumping around, it isn't out of the question, IMO. even as it stands it would be a nice small event for eastern TN.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know what the surface will look like, but the shortwaves look better on the CMC:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, we need this look: shifted west, so that the trough axis is over Alabama. Here is the ideal vort map evolution for east TN, IMO: There have been some runs that looked close to that, but too far east, for the most part. But they were in that territory with 960 lows off of Hatteras.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it will still be too late for our area, aside from whatever one s/w alone can produce. But it is pretty darn amazing that there could be such differences at H5 out west, but still produce a similar solution. Timing differences aside, the s/w being that far west early on, this run still produces a similar outcome to 6z wrt surface weather along the east coast: It's almost like this sort of a phased storm, whether it is out to sea, or more inland, is something the pattern just wants to produce now.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    The phase between the second shortwave and the one above, happens almost overhead east TN.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Look how much further west it is: at this hour, it looks like it is headed for the Gulf at a good angle.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    The northern shortwave is nearly 500 miles west of 6z, lol.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Actually I think was looking at the southern s/w thinking that was part of the storm, it may have been on a few runs ago, but I guess it's the n.stream piece over UT and CO at hour 99 I should be watching.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the N stream shortwave over Canada is running a little faster on the 12z GFS wrt to next weekend possible storm. Might catch the southern stream s/w a bit quicker on this run
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe we need to start a betting pool for which runs will show a big east coast storm and which won't over the next few days. 6z GFS looked a little better than 0z, but not nearly what we saw at 18z yesterday. 6z Euro looked like it might be a little better than 0z , but that's only based on extrapolating 500 mb vort maps past hour 90. I'm basically ready fro Friday just so we can see what happens. This next weekend chances notwithstanding, I think we need a reshuffle if we want better chances at a storm. There is just so much wind in the mid and upper levels in the eastern CONUS, that even when we get a nice southern stream shortwave (like this Tuesday) it gets sheared apart when it gets to the southeast. I kinda wish the MJO signal would just go ahead, and come out of the COD in the Maritime Continent, and start the same trek through 4/5/6 that it took in December. Yeah, that would make things less favorable for a while, but hopefully we could get it back to 7/8/1 by late February. But it's just dicking around in the COD for the next 10 - 15 days as though the tropical convection zones were on Oprah: "you get convection, and you get some convection, you all get convection!!" The BOM evolution is just bizzaro, but I would take it: It sees the main signal going backwards through 6->5->4->3->2->1->8 by 20 February, but all in the COD. What happened to our December -NAO? Do we just have waayyyy too much motion in the N. Hemisphere to get one of those now? GFS and EPS still show some arctic blocking, the -AO y'all were talking about recently, so will be interesting to see how that plays out towards mid February.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is the mean vort map:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z EPS: Not that this hasn't been said 1000 times at this point, but not a bad look at this range for H5, precip., and temps.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ollie Williams over at southernwx just pointed out that Tomer Burg has GEFS vort maps on his site. I've always wanted to see something like this to see how certain members get to certain solutions that produce storms. So of course I had to giphyfy it. The resolution is so small that it might not be helpful unless you zoom in, but it gives you an idea of how different members see the mid level evolution, all at once: I started it at hour 150 and went through about hr 220. I went slowly forwards and backwards and then sped it up. Vort is there in just about every member, and I think this just goes to show how delicate this set up is.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's wild to look at the spaghetti-O plots for this GEFS run. There are some that see a storm, but I think every single one of them is OTS or too far north: The thicker purple line is the OP and the smaller lighter lines are the ensemble members.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wonder if the amount of active wind energy in the flow right now would help to really amp up something if everything was timed just right? It's like these northern stream darts are being thrown by a pitching machine. If one was caught in a phase, would putting the breaks on like that really ratchet up the energy available for a potential cyclone?
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Caveat, this post is aimed at the very end of the long range right now. As we start to transition back to a less favorable pattern in the long range, I thought I'd look at ye olden strat. Lots of run-to-run variability (that's code for I looked at two runs and am too lazy to dig deeper right now). There're the sort of disruptions we'd expect with the less favorable tropical forcing: 50mb: Nothing though that looks much different than it looked in the long rage in December. Indian Ocean convection looking healthy. I looked at it over the past 3 weeks (not the below gif) and there has definitely been a tendency for the convection over tropical Africa to move offshore in the past week, so I think it probably is the expected MJO wave started up again in its treck across the eastern hemisphere's tropics. Even though the RMMs have us in the COD, I suspect that is because there are competing areas of convection. Still some in the Maritime Continent into the western Pac. When and if that Indian Ocean wave propagates to the Maritime Continent, we probably torch, but hopefully we can avoid the heavy rains that El Nino baby's CFS plots from a few days ago showed. One point of interest that I noticed Raindancewx pointed out in one of the volcano threads, was that the volcano shook up the waters around Tonga and cooled them off: That little cooler area north of New Zealand. I've noticed that that area is a prime region for TC development when the MJO gets to phase 7, so it wil; be interesting to see how and if that changes anything when the MJO gets there again in late February.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Little bit of a leeside low in Upstate SC: Wonder is that is helping enhance this a bit AND I wonder if that means y'all will get another one of these tomorrow evening as the next shortwave rolls through?
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Players are still on the field for the big phased bomb from the 12z GFS. Shortwave in the southwest ejects out about 48 hours too quickly this time so a swing and a miss:
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