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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry meant to add their map too:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was actually thinking I would wake up and the I'd be on the rain/snow line for the 6z runs, lol. WPC forecast actually thinks it will be an icy day for us tomorrow, although they don't give any reasoning in their discussion: "By Thursday, a wave of low pressure is forecast to develop along the arctic front over the Deep South. This low pressure wave is forecast to develop further as it tracks toward the northeast. This will bring an increasing threat of a winter storm from the Tennessee Valley and areas farther northeast on Thursday. The heaviest snow may fall over parts of the Central Appalachians while ice may impact much of Tennessee and northern Mississippi/Alabama."
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's like for the lead up to the this, some of the more extreme model camps the models switched sides. Last storm the NAMs were the most suppressed and east, until just before the event, but now they are the furthest north. Last time the Euro was not as consistent as the GFS, but it has consistently shown more snow where the GFS was washed out until about 36 hours ago.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    WRT to what EastKnox just posted, I think on that description (and I could def. be wrong), this section is the most significant edit: for this situation: "PVA is NOT under the vort max but is rather in the downstream area from it. Any variation in the vorticity isoline spacing, wind speed or angle the wind vectors intersect the vorticity isolines over space and time will change the advection of vorticity and will subsequently change the magnitude of PVA. In a situation where there is a vort lobe, in the downstream region of the vort lobe, some areas within the region will have greater PVA than others depending on variations in vorticity isoline spacing, wind speed and the angle of intersection between vorticity isolines and wind vectors."
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think they're talking about the 500 mb vort (positive vorticity advection). I mean it is backing the flow out of the southwest some, but it is def. not a big wrapped up vort like the last storm: I guess it is better than nothing.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, wrt my question earlier, the only notable enhancement to lift they mention is : "additionally think the Plateau counties up into southwest VA will also see higher amounts as they`re near the PVA which will help bring down the precipitation at a much faster rate. Further down in the valley things are much more uncertain specifically because of uncertainty in how fast the column saturates and how warm they get during the day."
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks familiar @John1122
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah that’s what is confusing me. The models are showing some steady if not dramatic lift. Sort of an overrunning scenario. I would have thought that that would have been frontogenetic since presumably there’s a front nearby but pivotal maps don’t show much in the way of that. There’s something (we probably several things) subtle going on in different levels of the atmosphere that are lifting the moisture. No one culprit, slow but steady. Honestly I kind of like that approach more than the drama of the last storm. At least for my part of the plateau.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Anyone want to take a stab at the lifting mechanics of this system? The 500mb vort looks strung out and weak. The jet dynamics look weak to me too. I looked at the frontogenesis maps on Pivotal and they didn't look anything like this last system. Is it that fabled lift source, isentropic upglide?
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's a Holston River special, lol. Knoxville to Kingsport, at least in TN.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro looking good for MBY this run:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still having some issues getting clouds to clear out sw of Knoxville, but here is a nice shot of the snow cover using visible and day phase GOES 16 imagery:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Someone has been cutting lumber on that side of the Mountain. Made a nice overlook for me, lol. I'm not sure if it is on private land or the State forest, but it is right off the trail that climbs the mountain. Only about a 3/4 mile hike up to that clearing. The sun's over Little Brushy mountain in that one pic. I live pretty much at the base of it.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just about 3 miles north of my place, on Lone Mountain: Looking east from Lone Mt: Looking at Frozen Head yesterday, from Highway 62: Coalfield yesterday, looking Northeast:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the 6z GEFS members:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro for Thursday:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Lord have mercy, 15z SREF is resolving the shortwave as stronger run over run: Here we go again, I guess...
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the 12z EPS members:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Whatever was wrong with imgur is fixed now:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the control was even further south than the OP. Having trouble uploading pics right now though.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is the 850mb rel. velocity gifified: I don't know though. I'm just not very enthused by the 500mb energy: Late add: Is the QB from the transfer portal?
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Weather weenie rule # 54
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro dug the energy for the late week system a bit more at 12z:
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