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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Virga might delay onset, but I think they're going to be wrong abut the onset, especially in Morgan county.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    If nothing else IMO this is trending faster onset over the past few runs: Based on that radar, I wouldn't be surprised to have virga or maybe even precip reaching the ground by the 10 o'clock hour
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Radar looks nice to the southwest. Dovie'andi se tovya sagain.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1 But I think it sometimes renders those parameters pretty coursely
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm using weenie rule 14, subsection 5.6: When your local forecast office doesn't have you in an advisory product, look downstream, use another office's product, and extrapolate: Thursday Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 34. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    That being said, I think the 3km NAM actually came north a bit from 6z, lol. And showed a stouter warm nose.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z 12km NAM:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's not finished running yet, but here is the 12z trend:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM looks like it will be a bit south as of hour 26:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's a RGEM trend gif if you want to use it for explanation purposes @Carvers Gap
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    On the other hand the HRRR has recently been the one to show me having precip. type issues and after onset, it doesn't think I have those this time.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know I just think the NAM has me spooked. Supposedly it has a knack for sniffing about warm noses/ temp problems : It may not be right, but it is a possible solution. Sometimes surface lows or pieces of them like to ride up into the eastern Great Valley.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry meant to add their map too:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was actually thinking I would wake up and the I'd be on the rain/snow line for the 6z runs, lol. WPC forecast actually thinks it will be an icy day for us tomorrow, although they don't give any reasoning in their discussion: "By Thursday, a wave of low pressure is forecast to develop along the arctic front over the Deep South. This low pressure wave is forecast to develop further as it tracks toward the northeast. This will bring an increasing threat of a winter storm from the Tennessee Valley and areas farther northeast on Thursday. The heaviest snow may fall over parts of the Central Appalachians while ice may impact much of Tennessee and northern Mississippi/Alabama."
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's like for the lead up to the this, some of the more extreme model camps the models switched sides. Last storm the NAMs were the most suppressed and east, until just before the event, but now they are the furthest north. Last time the Euro was not as consistent as the GFS, but it has consistently shown more snow where the GFS was washed out until about 36 hours ago.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    WRT to what EastKnox just posted, I think on that description (and I could def. be wrong), this section is the most significant edit: for this situation: "PVA is NOT under the vort max but is rather in the downstream area from it. Any variation in the vorticity isoline spacing, wind speed or angle the wind vectors intersect the vorticity isolines over space and time will change the advection of vorticity and will subsequently change the magnitude of PVA. In a situation where there is a vort lobe, in the downstream region of the vort lobe, some areas within the region will have greater PVA than others depending on variations in vorticity isoline spacing, wind speed and the angle of intersection between vorticity isolines and wind vectors."
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think they're talking about the 500 mb vort (positive vorticity advection). I mean it is backing the flow out of the southwest some, but it is def. not a big wrapped up vort like the last storm: I guess it is better than nothing.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, wrt my question earlier, the only notable enhancement to lift they mention is : "additionally think the Plateau counties up into southwest VA will also see higher amounts as they`re near the PVA which will help bring down the precipitation at a much faster rate. Further down in the valley things are much more uncertain specifically because of uncertainty in how fast the column saturates and how warm they get during the day."
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks familiar @John1122
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah that’s what is confusing me. The models are showing some steady if not dramatic lift. Sort of an overrunning scenario. I would have thought that that would have been frontogenetic since presumably there’s a front nearby but pivotal maps don’t show much in the way of that. There’s something (we probably several things) subtle going on in different levels of the atmosphere that are lifting the moisture. No one culprit, slow but steady. Honestly I kind of like that approach more than the drama of the last storm. At least for my part of the plateau.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Anyone want to take a stab at the lifting mechanics of this system? The 500mb vort looks strung out and weak. The jet dynamics look weak to me too. I looked at the frontogenesis maps on Pivotal and they didn't look anything like this last system. Is it that fabled lift source, isentropic upglide?
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's a Holston River special, lol. Knoxville to Kingsport, at least in TN.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro looking good for MBY this run:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still having some issues getting clouds to clear out sw of Knoxville, but here is a nice shot of the snow cover using visible and day phase GOES 16 imagery:
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