Jump to content

Holston_River_Rambler

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,559

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the 6z Euro is more in the RGEM camp.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Going to be interesting to see where the North Pac ridge sets up in the long range. If you like wintry weather, this works: This doesn't: Even though they may not look too different at first glance, 6z GFS (top) has a big overrunning event lined up at the surface for us, the 0z (bottom) has it over Iowa. It is waaaayyyy out there so neither scenario could happen. But I think it is pretty much a given that we get an EPO ridge somewhere after 10 days. 6z has it in a good location, 0z doesn't. We're in a Nina and despite what the RMMs say I think the actual MJO pulse that went through 8//1/2 earlier in January, is in low amplitude phase 3/4 right now. Some of that is being offset (why we have the COD) by convection flare ups all over the place and a TC heading towards Madagascar, but with all that in mind I suspect that the EPO ridge in the long range will end up being more over the Aleutians than AK and Yukon area. The models have shown that ridge setting up in an ideal location in the long range many times in the past few years and it adjusts west based on the reality of tropical forcing. Now that hasn't always been the case this year, we've actually had good tropical forcing recently, so hopefully I'm wrong. At least the SOI stopped rising overnight (dropped from +27 to +21). Honestly I'm kind of leaning for the model progression in February to get worse before it gets better. In other words I think we see good looks in the long range deteriorate as we get closer to verification, but I think by maybe the third week through late month we get back into phase 7 heading back toward 8 and the opposite may start to happen. The models give us a "close the blinds" look, but by Feb week 4/ March week 1, the pattern starts to verify better. One thing that could help us is SST mixing from the Tonga eruption. 7 day cooling over the MJO 5/6 and (I hate to say it, 7 too) areas: but notice that even with that cooling it is still warmer than average in some of those areas, lol: I think those SSTs may be a little bit of a wild card though, as the MJO pulse moves east.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Latest runs (6z GFS/ NAM/ RGEM) look pretty similar wrt to track to what John posted above. NAM and GFS are a little southeast of the RGEM. 6z Euro should be out in about 45 minutes and I will update with that as well.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Also, one of my favorite products, the Hyrdological Outlook! Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Louisville KY 456 PM EST Mon Jan 31 2022 ...Widespread Heavy Precipitation Expected Wednesday-Thursday Night... A large scale weather system is expected to impact southern Indiana and central Kentucky later this week. Initially our area will be on the warm side of this system were heavy rainfall is expected. Given that our soils are fairly moist from recent snow melt, some flooding issues and eventual river flooding will be possible later this week. Rain is expected to develop across the region late Tuesday night and become more widespread during the day on Wednesday. A brief lull in the precipitation is possible Wednesday night before a second round of heavier precipitation moves into the region on Thursday. Colder air will arrive in parts of southern Indiana by Thursday morning changing this rain over to a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and some snow before the change over works south through central Kentucky later in the day. The precipitation ends early Friday morning. Rainfall amounts of 2.75 to 3.5 inches are expected across the region with isolated higher amounts. This amount of rainfall is expected to create excessive runoff which will result in localized flooding in some areas. Sharp rises on area creeks and streams are expected and some rivers across the region may go into flood by the end of the week and into the weekend.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z GFS is certainly cold looking past this week. I feel like there is just a bit of can kicking going on though, so we'll see. Hopefully western forum areas can escape the ice threat later this week. It made a couple of attempts at phases, but both missed. The second one was a pretty impressive miss though:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Can't say the GFS isn't trying though:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    So close, but so far away:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    If you thought one vort in the southwest was complicated, the 6z GFS and 0z Euro give you three trying to kick out around hour 150: That is a very tricky pattern if it happens. At one point on the Euro there are 5 different vorts interacting with that southwest trough:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Probably won't be too painful. It's the Euro after all. Now if the reliable GFS was showing ice......
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro marches snow and ice across the state later next week: 1040ish High over the Lakes.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ye olden -EPO/ -AO: This after a nice overrunning event. The overrunning event will lock in to a cutter in approximately 5 days.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think I probably matched my totals from the last storm. Around 2.5 here, when measured in the shadiest and most elevated surfaces, as is the custom. Kind of an eerie crescent moon rising over the valley to the southeast with light snow falling.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    That's good, we need multiple models, if we can get a couple more we'll throw together an east TN ensemble!
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    It looks to me like someone near Farragut will get more than me with that band.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    It really was. I had kinda just "turned off" so to speak from watching it and just tuned out. Looked out and there was already half an inch. I'd say I'm at just barely under and inch now, and all from that one band now moving off the plateau
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hopefully this band holds together as it comes off the plateau. I wasn't really paying attention but I feel like I've almost up to an inch now in just half an hour.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Decided to watch some TV while waiting on the band to come through. It is absolutely pouring snow here now. I bet it would nearly be a whiteout if it were daylight (it actually got harder after this video).
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Getting close to moderate now. Would be interested in Oak Ridge obs in about half an hour.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I’d say I’m at “light snow” level now. Pretty small flakes though.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Finally spitting a few flurries here in southern Morgan
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    WBIR just showed a pic of Oliver Springs. Looks like they have half an inch on the ground. Nada here just a few miles NW. Apparently that band is producing.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z GFS with ye olden 1060 high in South Dakota at hour 360. Nice mild temps under there too:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Alright, everybody needs to be on their A game for TIMs model obs today. HRRR showing some CAPE and lightning flashes. We gotta recharge the TIMs model as much as possible before next weekend. I don't think it counts if we just see it on GOES-16 derived flashes. HRRR lightning flash density 0-3km CAPE:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    A pretty good radar return just north west of me, we'll see if it any of it reaches the ground when it gets here
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    For your model watching pleasure, Tropical Tidbits had some kind of an overhaul last night and now has extra hours and a bunch of extra parameters for the Euro.
×
×
  • Create New...