Jump to content

Holston_River_Rambler

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,559

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Is it really a flood threat until janetjanet starts posting here? But yeah, the past several runs of the GFS have been showing someone getting 5"+ between the Ohio Valley and us. So far most of those runs favor the OH Valley. The EPS mean is up to around 3.5 - 4" across most of the state. I'd say 25% of the members get us over 5 - 6" and one member gives ye olden "get your waterwings and floating flamingos ready" amounts of 8 - 11 inches over eastern parts of TN. Hopefully the CFS is right and we get a break by early - mid March from this pattern that seems to be setting up. It seems to me to be like the pattern we've had, in the sense that the northern stream kept throwing energy at the Gulf, but it just never synced up with southern waves. So there were a bunch of chances for something big, but it never pulled it off. This new pattern looks like it will keep throwing energy at us in ways that would be conducive to flooding, but hopefully it doesn't sync everything up just right.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just woke up to get a glass of water and I have a dusting on elevated surfaces.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    So de we think much of this will hold together? Looks like High Knob is at least going to get a couple of inches tonight. HRRR tries to kill it off, but I don't think that will happen. Now it may not make it to teh ground, but I think the radar returns will hold together: Notice (Tri Cities folks) that there is also some weird 181 or 26 or whatever it is now band that shows up. It literally looks like it starts as some lift over the Eastman Bubble and then follows someone to JC. I'll be asleep, but will be interested to see if that verifies on radar overnight. maybe it is the ultra rare Bays Mountain point leeside low? JiC index may be in its COD, but it is still in the good phases 8/1 and we also we have the all important No One Cares Anymore (NOCA) index going for this to overperform tonight. Level of public and even weenie interest in any given event are like the SOI. We've dropped to -31.23 for this event.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sleet in Oneida/ Big South Fork area.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    TIMS extended range model is running:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    That is the time frame for the GFS's big Chatt system from the 12z Feb 5 run.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    It was a model we invented (Thunder In the Mountains) based on the old saying that thunder in the mountains in winter means snow soon.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z NAM
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    @John1122 I'm adding the JiC (John in Chatt) to be like the MJO, that is if John knows the general weeks he has to go to Chatt each winter. We can even create plots. Current conditions
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    But the 18z GFS hates everyone but TRI and wants us to die
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think it had a better interaction with the secondary N. stream piece (blue circle), than it has had in previous runs, but yeah, still too positively tilted with the main vort to the south.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know that we had a storm thread for it (maybe I missed it) but the obs for this start on page 12:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the radar from the top CIPS analogue: and the H5/ MSLP pattern: Honestly the radar doesn't look too different from what some of the models have been spitting out. 12z RGEM at 60 hours:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the top CIPS analogues out to hour 60 based on the 12z NAM (I wish that CIPS site gave analogues based off the RGEM, lol): site: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F060&rundt=2022020912&map=COOP2perc
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z RGEM looked interesting.: No clue where that would have gone, but it is quite a bit different from the NAM: 6z GFS that John posted looked more like the RGEM, which seems odd to me since I think the NAMs are closer akin to the GFS wrt their physics.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe we end up with ye olden suppressed solution from last week (below is la la land GFS run from 12z Feb 1): I've started saving the nice runs at day 15, after what happened earlier in the month. Compare the above to what you mentioned, now under 10 days out: And to be fair, this is what this weekend's (now seeming suppressed) storm looked like at in GFS la la land: :
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    But it also gives us another squally clipper around hour 140:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    The last clipper with the squalls was the only one I remember in like the last decade. 12z Euro is a late bloomer too.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    For now we shall enjoy the look of the 6z GEFS height and vorticity mean, "bias corrected" (whatever that means on storm vista) Here is the non "bias corrected" for comparison:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    #neverforget: 4 run trend on the GFS from the last storm's shortwave out west, within hour 123. and of course let us not forget the ever popular "tail" solution either:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    The basic idea of the 0z GFS is still there at 6z, just a tad further SE.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found the NE folks mentioned this: https://sondehub.org/#!mt=Mapnik&mz=6&qm=1h&mc=36.36181,-84.27051 weather balloon tracker Looks like it even gives you live Skew-Ts
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    psu just posted a link to this article in Nature, in the MA forum The authors seem to think that the sacred Modoki may make an appearance next winter: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-97111-y
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah I was about to say... Maybe it will finally reboot the TIMs model.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Do we severe, or do we flood though?
×
×
  • Create New...