Jump to content

Holston_River_Rambler

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,676

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAO definitely doing it’s job at 12z!
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Op GFS at 6z was another ideal La Nina run. I think I could draw up a pattern like that if you just told me La Nina. You can even make a really fast gif of the run and it doesn't matter for our area. Not much changes: 0z Euro was a bit different. It ends at 240 with a nice trough: I know ensembles are better at long range, but it just struck me this morning how badly the pattern could potentially work out if the GFS is right. As we've been saying, the GEFS and EPS still like the better pattern day 10+. So at least we still have that. GEFS: EPS: Western Pac looking a little better (even if still not great) with some convection north of New Guinea: Strat split seems to have worked out and is within 90 hours now: Both the Euro and GFS show it reconsolidating after this. Not sure how healthy it will be though.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hopefully one of these years!
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wonder if the suprema la nina look on the long range GFS is partially caused by the big convective flare up in perhaps one of the worst places for us to see it. This is a gif of the sat. imagery over the SW Pac over the past 5 days: I wish I could make it go a little slower, but not sure how to adjust speed on giphy. Notice at the beginning there was very little south of Vietnam and Laos, but some pretty good flare ups recently. I think the flare up over N. Australia that drifts east towards the areas E and SE of New Guinea is associated with the MJO movement into the west Pac, but as seems typical of La Nina, it all get shunted SE. That convection created a big rise and now a big drop (but not to negative numbers yet) in the SOI. In the past 7 days it has gone from approx. -4, up to 30, and now back to 15. Interestingly, the overall 30 average of the SOI has been lowering: I guess that's a lot of huffing and puffing just to talk myself into waiting to see what happens once the block gets established and give the tropical convection some time to keep working itself out. I think the long range OP model runs can, for the continental US pattern, be really dependent on how the tropical Pacific looks for any given run's initialization. Even if it does just turn into our typical la Nina, think of the poor flooding rains we missed out on last year! We could get started on those early this year to help with drought striken areas! Even the WPC gives a 5-7" total over the next 168 hours near MBY:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Well, since y'all have brought up the Nature signs... Birds and squirrels have been behaving like the winter of all winters is coming to us on the plateau. I actually thought about trying to get a picture of them around my house, but never got around to it.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    That 18z GFS was the ultimate La Niña run!
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Also of note. I think we get an upgrade to the GFS today.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    And of course now that the MJO is getting into the western Pac all that nice convection from two weeks ago (that it might have helped enhance) has died out, lol Although there is some south of Hawaii and east of Central America.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thunder IMBY. You know what that means...
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    The 6z GFS shows what could be a downright magical pattern evolution. Not saying this going to happen, but I guess it is at least on the table. Imagine what would happen if the NAO block trapped a vort under it in a massive rex block on a continental scale: And then it retrograded west enough to keep us on the NW edge of a upper level SW flow, while maintaining cold air:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    One of the interesting things about the strat PV disruption is that I think it is 100% related to this NAO block (not sure which is the chicken and which is the egg in this case though). However, long range strat PV is showing another sort of SPV evolution that might result in a warming and not just a split: GFS Euro: I think what we are looking at in the medium/ shorter range is more like what happened in 2018 when we had the nice blocking in March after the strat split or warming (can't remember which) in late Feb. the gifs above would be like more recent SSWs but they're pretty far out in 300+ hr "magical retrograding snowstorm on the 18z GFS" land, so who knows. It's such and awesome block, I hope someone one in the eastern half of the US gets hammered at some point. With such a big NAO, you might think we would be looking at an Archambault event as the block eventually breaks down. That is a summary of the nature of the events from the page below and was written in regards to a different event. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/03/pacific-archambault-signal-for-equinox.html I think these are the publications if anyone is interested. I may dig into one later when I have more time:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    What in the world is that at the end of the 18z GFS: The ultimate -NAO storm?
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    The bright green is SO2
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS and Euro wanting to show a bit of a split of the SPV. Looks like there is probably some relationship with the -NAO ridge developing. Euro: GFS: Here is the 3D model from the 0z GFS run last night:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    In fact, we might want to go ahead and clear janetjanet a place off at the TN Valley weather table: There's that La Nina firehose we all know and love!
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know, I still think the MJO did a pretty good job delivering cold air here, even with the 8-1-2 in the COD. I DO think the horrible Pac on the long range Ops and Ens. has been impacted by where the MJO is now and has been for the past few days. Yuck: On the other hand Satellite looks kind of meh to me. I've seen much worse looks. I'm kind of surprised it registers this as a medium amplitude 7. It would be nice if we can get this NAO block to hold out long enough for whatever the MJO pass gets back to whatever produced this most recent cold snap and the one week long on in October. It was pretty stout. Wiped out + anomalies for the western part of the state and almost did it in the east: Now if we get through the next week and a half to two weeks and the Pac still looks awful on day 10+ or so modeling, Nina for the loss!
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy Thanksgiving from Morgan County:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some chatter about the long range EPS in the MA subforum, so I thought I would post it here. Interesting pattern if it verifies:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Remember when the Euro showed this? Pepperidge farm remembers:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry for the flurry of posts, but just thought of one more thing to add. Well more of a question. Do y'all think there is a relationship between the upper level divergence forecast over NE South America and the Caribbean, and the -NAO that the ensembles are also wanting to build along the same longitude?
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Out in ye olden tropics, looks to me at least like the MJO wave has moved into 5/6: At that pace it should make it to the more favorable regions in about 2 weeks. Still some convection holding on in the central and western Pac too. I don't have a clue what it is, but there seems to be some favorable aspect to that environment. I will be interested to see how all that looks in a couple of weeks. The RMMs suggest that it will do what it did last time and die out: The above is the GEFS, and the EPS looks pretty similar. But let's remember that the low amplitude treck it just took through the COD produced enough cold to probably even out the temp anomalies in November by the end of the week. The EPS and GEFS also want to argue for significant tropical forcing over NE South America and the Caribbean in about 10 days: Not really sure if that is MJO related or something else, but it will be interesting to see how and if that modulates the pattern.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    The GFS has been handling the Friday system weirdly over the past few runs, but the Euro has been more consistent. Either way , the main low is pulled west of the TN valley, like Carver's said, but hopefully the Euro has a better handle on the pattern and the GFS is holding the system back too much. It's November, cutters gonna cut. I feel like its always been some version of a cutter, just a question of can the whole shortwave eject out of the SW at once, and how much energy gets pulled in on the back side as it strengthens and pulls away. It is East TN and it is a chance for snow, so what can go wrong, may in fact go wrong, lol. Hopefully at least a good upslope for the eastern mts and NC.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Past that system, the GEFS and EPS seem pretty -NAO happy past day 10: Canadian ensembles, not so much:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    it's a situation where it would be fun to see how many Ensemble members show such stout blocking and which don't, to give us the more washed out meh look. Is it like a big snow on the ensembles where one or two with major blocking skew the mean, or more of an even split? Not sure there is a model service that gives individual ensemble members H5 looks though.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    You -NAO lovers are gonna love the 6z GFS: Of course it is still waaayyyy out there.
×
×
  • Create New...