Holston_River_Rambler

SREFs in an hour, lol

Yeah it looked like it flattened the system out a bit and made a clean pass. Will be interesting to see how all this plays out in March. Is the reality of the system more amped and does it have more precip? I'll be in Boone, so John upstream from me should be locked into half a foot, lol.

Kuchera Map:

12z Euro:

Looks like it will keep the surface low east of the Apps. East of Charlotte at hour 72.

To me it looks like a snow sounding, especially with heavier rates, but honestly wouldn't put much faith into it until I saw it falling, lol.

pretty different profile around Knoxville: More tapered, sort of a warm cheek. I have no idea if those soundings are realistic.

Looks like the 12z GFS saw a warm nose at 700 mb for some reason in the Cumberland county area:

Looks to me like it came in slightly SE from 6z, but not as SE as 0z. Not a huge jump either way.

Looks like a little more confluence, might be a tick SE.

Actually I dug around on weathermodels and found the NBM: Looks like the NBM is more of a blend of their low end amounts and the 10% chance amounts

I don't have access to the NBM anymore on Pivotal, but I'm going to go with that map is the NBM.

In the qpf frames it looked like it downsloped TRI quite a bit.

6z Euro (no Kuchera available)

Precip. type maps take forever on weathermodels for the 6z and 18z runs of the Euro, but here is the 18z Euro qpf: Only out to hour 90, so still some snowfall afterwards:

Looks like the 18z Euro is slightly deeper with the southern energy, compared to 12z, out to hour 66.

Should have the 18z Euro in range this evening. Wishing I hadn't cancelled that Storm Vista weather subscription for the ultra fast Euro, lol. Thanks for all the updates, I've been out on a hike on the upper Cumberland plateau today. Beautiful calm day, but the cliffs were hanging on to the cold of winter.

Wasn't it the first one of the season that was doing almost this exact same dance? I know, like you said, they've all been pretty dicey, but this one's projected track looks very similar to a specific one. I went back through the gifs and it looks like the it was the Jan 2 -3 storm. This is how it looked at around 7 days: Here is is once we got in HRRR range: I think it ended up being a pretty stout single shortwave: This one looks like it has more of a n. stream component to it: Kind of like the one in late January: But remember how that one jumped around so much at hour 100 and ended up with a strung out tail (below)? The Euro is trying that: Do the shorter wavelengths help us out and keep the southern energy stronger in March? I'm going to be in Boone this weekend, so that may give plateau areas an advantage, lol. It's a good looking Miller A mean on the GEFS. How's TIMs looking today? After its last performance I think we need some tornados in shoulder seasons for it to be fully charged.

We have the Carter's Valley snow hole and the Hardin Valley snow hole on the 6z GFS run: We also have a Strat split right now: With the potential for another one in the long range. Convection from last weeks western Pac kind of puttered out so we never saw the big SOI drop I thought we would, but I was pretty impressed by how the MJO just tanked into the COD this week.

Looks like the convection from last Sunday has pushed into the western Pac a little quicker than I was expecting. With that look I wouldn't be surprised if there is a huge SOI drop one day later this week or next weekend. Now to be fair the SOI was almost +20 today, but there is also a tropical cyclone creeping around near Darwin. Looks like there is also some decent convection firing in the eastern Indian Ocean, so I guess we'll see what that does as the week goes on. I still think we might have a window centered on the ides of March, plus or minus a few days before or after.

Mostly rain here with a little bit of very wet snow mixed in.

Same mixed bag here in Bearden area. About to head back to Morgan county so I’ll be interested to see what it is doing up that way.

Looks like the Obed is living the dream today: https://fb.watch/bnGvZy9M-q/

I think we're in the worst of the "long range modeling having deteriorating looks" phase of Feb. Tropical convection is ugly, but chugging along: It still has to make it further east and not die out when and if it gets into more favorable reasons. I'm sure there will be a couple of tropical cyclones to delay it as well, but I think the second week of March holds some hope. There's some talk in the MA forum of a -AO as well. Or I could be totally wrong. But hey, at least the floods look like they end today for a week! And no one has 14 inches of rain, thankfully.

Some pics from the book of faces of the Emory at Oakdale. Looks like it got pretty close: A creek that flows into the Emory at Oakdale: Source thread: https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=10228796306238170&set=pcb.2030041027163489