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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think digital snow counts if the person seeing it looks at GOES lightning data!
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Finally got some nice western Pac convection: But as others have noted the TC in the Indian Ocean is probably skewing the western Pac convection's impact to the overall pattern. Long range GFS develops another TC right behind that one and the Euro isn't quite as excited about it, so maybe that has some impact on how each model resolves things downstream? Either way I'm just glad to see some convection developing in the western Pac. Both the Euro and GFS have the MJO staying low amplitude in the COD and getting back to 8 in the COD in about 10 days.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    CMC looked to be heading somewhere nice at the end of its run.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe the GEFS control would work? That ensemble might still be run on an older version of the GFS core?
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    It was a Maue tweet that I saw on southernwx: I think that is the 500mb pattern N hemisphere pattern.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    It has, but supposedly the newest one had lower verification scores than the old one. Not sure exactly which parameter was used for the score though. I'll see if I can dig up that post.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nothing like that first 34 degree rain to set the mood, lol!
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Actually, looking back at the beautiful 18z GFS run from yesterday, the storm window was a bit later in next week. But it still had a nice 50/50.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Models still have the storm window this AM. Euro shows the NAO blocking the flow and we get a pseudo 50/50 over the Gulf of St Lawrence: OP's solution develops the storm too far west, but hey, I'm guessing this won't be the exact way it works out in 200+ hours. GFS has the same wave, but no trapped 50/50 to push it south. We're dealing with two cut offs to thread the needle for the 13 - 15th storm. One an anticyclone and one a cyclone (-NAO and possible bootleg 50/50), so I suspect model mayhem will continue. I think the best case scenario is the 18z run from yesterday (posted a few posted back) and the worst (for now, lol) is 6z GFS this AM (low cutting over Minnesota). Maybe we can split the difference and get some upslope? Window has not closed though. The more I see of this particular -NAO, the more I the more I think we have to have a 50/50 of some sort. Without that, as heights rise in front of a system, with no Pac help to force the track to our south, these storms are all going to try to force the SER to connect to the NAO, and then cut. I think someone mentioned it in the MA forum, but we could have big model swings in short periods of time for discrete storm windows, just based on if some random little low gets stuck in just the right way underneath the block.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAO definitely doing it’s job at 12z!
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Op GFS at 6z was another ideal La Nina run. I think I could draw up a pattern like that if you just told me La Nina. You can even make a really fast gif of the run and it doesn't matter for our area. Not much changes: 0z Euro was a bit different. It ends at 240 with a nice trough: I know ensembles are better at long range, but it just struck me this morning how badly the pattern could potentially work out if the GFS is right. As we've been saying, the GEFS and EPS still like the better pattern day 10+. So at least we still have that. GEFS: EPS: Western Pac looking a little better (even if still not great) with some convection north of New Guinea: Strat split seems to have worked out and is within 90 hours now: Both the Euro and GFS show it reconsolidating after this. Not sure how healthy it will be though.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hopefully one of these years!
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wonder if the suprema la nina look on the long range GFS is partially caused by the big convective flare up in perhaps one of the worst places for us to see it. This is a gif of the sat. imagery over the SW Pac over the past 5 days: I wish I could make it go a little slower, but not sure how to adjust speed on giphy. Notice at the beginning there was very little south of Vietnam and Laos, but some pretty good flare ups recently. I think the flare up over N. Australia that drifts east towards the areas E and SE of New Guinea is associated with the MJO movement into the west Pac, but as seems typical of La Nina, it all get shunted SE. That convection created a big rise and now a big drop (but not to negative numbers yet) in the SOI. In the past 7 days it has gone from approx. -4, up to 30, and now back to 15. Interestingly, the overall 30 average of the SOI has been lowering: I guess that's a lot of huffing and puffing just to talk myself into waiting to see what happens once the block gets established and give the tropical convection some time to keep working itself out. I think the long range OP model runs can, for the continental US pattern, be really dependent on how the tropical Pacific looks for any given run's initialization. Even if it does just turn into our typical la Nina, think of the poor flooding rains we missed out on last year! We could get started on those early this year to help with drought striken areas! Even the WPC gives a 5-7" total over the next 168 hours near MBY:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Well, since y'all have brought up the Nature signs... Birds and squirrels have been behaving like the winter of all winters is coming to us on the plateau. I actually thought about trying to get a picture of them around my house, but never got around to it.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    That 18z GFS was the ultimate La Niña run!
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Also of note. I think we get an upgrade to the GFS today.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    And of course now that the MJO is getting into the western Pac all that nice convection from two weeks ago (that it might have helped enhance) has died out, lol Although there is some south of Hawaii and east of Central America.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thunder IMBY. You know what that means...
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    The 6z GFS shows what could be a downright magical pattern evolution. Not saying this going to happen, but I guess it is at least on the table. Imagine what would happen if the NAO block trapped a vort under it in a massive rex block on a continental scale: And then it retrograded west enough to keep us on the NW edge of a upper level SW flow, while maintaining cold air:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    One of the interesting things about the strat PV disruption is that I think it is 100% related to this NAO block (not sure which is the chicken and which is the egg in this case though). However, long range strat PV is showing another sort of SPV evolution that might result in a warming and not just a split: GFS Euro: I think what we are looking at in the medium/ shorter range is more like what happened in 2018 when we had the nice blocking in March after the strat split or warming (can't remember which) in late Feb. the gifs above would be like more recent SSWs but they're pretty far out in 300+ hr "magical retrograding snowstorm on the 18z GFS" land, so who knows. It's such and awesome block, I hope someone one in the eastern half of the US gets hammered at some point. With such a big NAO, you might think we would be looking at an Archambault event as the block eventually breaks down. That is a summary of the nature of the events from the page below and was written in regards to a different event. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/03/pacific-archambault-signal-for-equinox.html I think these are the publications if anyone is interested. I may dig into one later when I have more time:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    What in the world is that at the end of the 18z GFS: The ultimate -NAO storm?
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    The bright green is SO2
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS and Euro wanting to show a bit of a split of the SPV. Looks like there is probably some relationship with the -NAO ridge developing. Euro: GFS: Here is the 3D model from the 0z GFS run last night:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    In fact, we might want to go ahead and clear janetjanet a place off at the TN Valley weather table: There's that La Nina firehose we all know and love!
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know, I still think the MJO did a pretty good job delivering cold air here, even with the 8-1-2 in the COD. I DO think the horrible Pac on the long range Ops and Ens. has been impacted by where the MJO is now and has been for the past few days. Yuck: On the other hand Satellite looks kind of meh to me. I've seen much worse looks. I'm kind of surprised it registers this as a medium amplitude 7. It would be nice if we can get this NAO block to hold out long enough for whatever the MJO pass gets back to whatever produced this most recent cold snap and the one week long on in October. It was pretty stout. Wiped out + anomalies for the western part of the state and almost did it in the east: Now if we get through the next week and a half to two weeks and the Pac still looks awful on day 10+ or so modeling, Nina for the loss!
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