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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the main storm's couplet is trying to reorganize, and heading toward the Powell area.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    That foreground valley in the landscape picture I posted above is pretty close to where that last couplet passed
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Passed by, just a little wind, but I suspect the couplet passed juuusssttt to my north.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    New random couplet headed my way, yay!
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    This will give y'all some idea of the terrain it is dealing with now: Vertical arrow is pointing at the valley that has the prison, and the horizontal arrow is approximate track, WNW --> ESE
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    No, it was probably about 10 minutes NE of me.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the circulation is passing really close to the prison near Frozen Head.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    A gif of the couplet from earlier: Most recent: Frozen Head has some peaks above 3000' so that may do a number on it.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Lots of lightning to my north. Wind echoing down from the mountains nearby.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I just saw a 142 mph from MRX
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Northern cell (Fentress) is going to get pretty close to Sunbright. If I had to pick a location I’d say a bit south of the main town.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    That one is on a trajectory closer to my location, joy.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    It’s getting close to being on some pretty flat land on that part of the plateau. If it survives to southern Fentress county it’ll probably make it to the Frozen Head area.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Warned cell just south of Gainesboro:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Best save that one too: Euro: Here are the ensemble means: I don't think everybody sees a widespread 8+ inches like the GFS shows, but there is convective precip involved and for localized areas, if everything lines up, I don't think 10" of rain is impossible. I wish I could find those atmospheric river models with specific parameters they use for California and the Pac NW. There's def. a eastern Pac connection.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nasty OP GFS run for rain and cloudy weather. Front finally pushed south of us Sat and Sun 15 - 16 and wave tries to bring us some snow. Pretty much an on and off firehose until then.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS just janet janeted East TN pretty good.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think me and Carver were thinking along the same lines, lol.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think it is also important to acknowledge that we are smack in the middle of a the worst of what the MJO can do right now. Straight up 5/6. It does seem to want to continue east though. I think the fact that it didn't just sit, centered over Java is one reason the SSWE/ split has pooped out. Not sure that I care too much about that, since so much can go wrong with SSWEs. Seems pretty similar to last time. MJO gets hung up in the area above, then slowly starts to amble eastward. I don't have the the Euro verification handym but at least the GFS has been biased to a weaker pass: I was actually thinking it might be slower than it, so I guess that's a positive.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    janet janet
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z AIFS looks like it is coming back south to be like the GFS/ CMC.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the 0z EPS and 6z GEFS members: GEFS: EPS:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    That was an epic run, lol. Backed off at 6z, but still has the same players. Interestingly it seems to have started to back the progression of the AIFS from 24 hours ago and now 0z, if not the details: Front slides in around this Wed. Pushes through over the weekend after a few impulses ride it then this: 24 hour qpf panels:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thundersnow reports in Seattle.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pretty fun to watch the color flip from the equatorial perspective:
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