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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z GFS gives TN a nice I 40 storm at hr 174. Ideal levels of suppression at range after that.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Regardless of the specific outcome, the GFS REALLY wants a big storm somewhere in our forum area around the 23rd. Seems like its been trying to show something since that period came into range.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I liked the 0z GFS, it was fun! It actually maintained a bit of continuity at 6z in its med - long range, in there there is a general chance of cold and wintry weather. But it spat out a fun solution for the snow showers associated with the upper low late next week. You've heard of orographic lift snows in a NW flow, you've heard of an upper level cold pool causing instability, well... I give you positive vorticity advection snow from SW --> NE on the backside of a huge upper low! Maybe it just counts as a clipper at that point? Rut Roh though, the Euro abandoned us to GFS despair at 0z: It doesn't so much get sheared out as the GFS had been suggesting, as it is able to just move ENE. The CMC also took a jump NE and looks like a compromise between the 0z Euro and 6z GFS, but favors the GFS's depiction. EPS members took a hit a 0z too, but there are still a good number of members who see the opportunity: plateau: mts: For those who like upslope, hopefully this is just a blip in these OPs and maybe the actual block will hold a bit better. *Holston cringes silently since he is planning on being in Boone next weekend*
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some of the 18z GEFS members till have the upslope as well.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just on the GFS as far as I can tell. It looks about the same on the Euro and CMC.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z GFS jumped in a big way toward how the Euro and CMC were handling the system next week. Hopefully that is a sign that it is handling things poorly right now because its long range looked warm.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    You put that a lot better than I did. But that was what I was trying to get at.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ehh 6z GEFS seems to be a bit more optimistic than earlier runs about the upslope next week:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll add that the EPS is pretty enthused about at least snow showers and flurries next week on the plateau and mts: Plateau: Mts: But, is the GFS the new Dr. No? Even if it is ultimately wrong, can it effectively show how things could go south?
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight ensembles: EPS GEFS GEPS GEFS is definitely in ints own world with regards to the SE ridge and troughs in the western trough. But I'm kind of in what can go wrong, may go wrong mode right now... hopefully that's just a personal problem lol
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Someone in the MA forum linked to this today. Some good insights into how the CPC folks see the pattern evolving: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ For me, it was striking how much came down to La Nina probabilities. Not saying they are wrong to do that, but the whole write up was fascinating in terms of trying to see how the pros reason through medium to long range forecasting. Some good MJO disco in there too.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    The big storm that was going to be a big front next week has almost turned into a Miller B on the 6z GFS. The GFS depicts the low transfer from Dubuque, Iowa to Cape Fear
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Beautiful night up here in Morgan County: Sadly the clearing seems to only happen after dark.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    My body is ready for its +PNA experience
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's banter, but man, I think there's some weenie rule that says a run like that has to be posted: The stuff Gulf Low dreams are made of lol.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Could be an interesting end to this GFS run
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS member 15 would be a nice present:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe they put something in its algorithm from way back in the FV3 days when it used to produce those wild snow storms late in its run.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing we can say, is at least the pattern can kicking seems to have stopped, at least for now.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll probably be able to kayak in my front yard after this next batch of rain moves in:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro had an interesting take on the big system next week: Might could be not bad for upslope? The rest of that pattern doesn't look too bad either. I think this storm window is the same one the GFS called like 10 days ago, but had it as a storm moving WSW into Norfolk: Speaking of the GFS, it looks pretty similar to the Euro in the window: I know I just posted that time frame at 500 mb yesterday afternoon, but I fully expected it to be 100% different on the GFS this morning with how that model has been swinging lately. At least this is a dollop of consistency.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think it depends on which phase it initializes in. A few years ago Webb had some research that if the models initialize it in phase 7, the GFS suite does better than the Euro. But other than that I'm not sure.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    The Pac looks pretty good (Euro) to much improved (CMC) on the 12z OPs late in their runs. Will it hold? Will it flood? Will severe weather blow us away next week?
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Creeks are looking healthy at Frozen head. Highest volume in a looong time. Judge Branch and tributaries:
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