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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I’ll have access in about an hour to the 12z EPS city charts so if I can I’ll post for some of the cities in the forum area.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap trying to go back to sleep on a friend’s couch in Boone lol. But it was 445 and of course I had to see how the Euro went down after everyone was saying the Icon made a move towards the GFS.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    The above was when we wanted the GFS to be wrong about the huge upper low, when the CMC and Euro were showing good upslope for this weekend (i.e. today and tomorrow). CMC at this range for today: GFS for same date range at same initialization time: Actual conditions in Kingsport: Now to be fair the GFS didn't exactly nail the 500mb pattern (trend of runs since that time through 12z today): But maybe there is reason for hope that the GFS isn't totally out in lala land. Cards on the table I'm hugging the GFS for all its worth.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ehh, it did indeed end up like the CMC camp, despite starting out further west: Big old cold front. But wait, that output looks familiar.....
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    And the above wasn't meant as a critique of your post @tnweathernut, I just happened to be typing at the same time.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    To be fair, it may end up looking closer to the CMC with surface output (haven't looked yet since weathermodels is slow wrt thatoutput), but I'm happy with the energy's trajectory at 12z than what it had at 0z:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z run is 500 miles west with the energy on 18z 12/22, vs 0z run.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    The GFS and the Euro handling the size of he energy and its trajetcory ejecting down the PNA ridge differently, but I think the end result is going to be a step closer to the GFS this time.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the Euro is digging a bit more this time. We shall see.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    You're a brave poster Wurbus.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Saw a WPC graphic on the MA forum, and thought it was odd that someone bothered to up a dollop of NE TN to 10 - 30% chance of 0.25" liquid equivalent of snow/sleet, instead of the 0 - 10% for the rest of the area (outside the Smokeys). 30 - 50% in the Smokeys makes sense. Leeside of the Eastman Bubble enhancement?
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    It may mean absolutely nothing with this next system, but the GFS was the first to jump back north with the huge upper low this weekend that the CMC and Euro had been dropping over us to give a good upslope event. Looks like it did that about the range we have for the 23rd system. Euro and CMC eventually corrected that way. That being said 6z GFS jumped back a touch north with the the amplitude of the energy's dive toward the SE. It's all just going to depend on the angle and steepness of the PNA ridge the vort runs down. Still a nice clipper though for some forum areas. But then it gives us this more chances after that.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ok, I will be in Western NC for the next two days. Do I need to recreate a scene from Twister for the 12/23 possibility, or will that jinx it? Does being at or above 850 MB help or hurt? I'm willing to humiliatingly abase myself in gif format for the high end of this potential system.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS temp charts for 12z: I think one member has a high of 0 and a low of -5 on 12/23. Man, what an ensemble mean though for that day!
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the magical overnight Euro run: That sucker is a hair's breadth from being a mythical storm. Scenario: SE ridge flexes just enough to make the initial vort amp a bit more as it moves over the NW Gulf. PNA ridge pumps up enough to push the main vort, essentially a TPV lobe, on a track that pushes it from KS --> OK --> Louisiana. That baroclinic zone would make a storm that we would never forget. As it stands, here is the pretty output from last nights run: Wind chills: Kuchera snowfall: Of course the Euro has, over the past couple of years since its most recent upgrades, tended to overamp storms at this range. 6z GFS OP is basically a non event aside from a few flurries. 0z EPS support the idea of at least som snow for plateau areas to the east: as do the 0z GEFS members:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    The rain has absolutely poured here all day today. 2-3 was the WPC call, but I think 3 - 5 might be better once this moves out by 12z tomorrow: Found an otter pond at 3000' in Frozen Head SP, wonder how it will look tomorrow, lol:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro looking like a compromise between the 12z GFS and 12z CMC at 500 mb.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll call that a step in the right direction for the Euro:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS member 33 would be a nice Christmas present:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pretty chilly EPS mean for the Christmas time frame and there are some down right arctic members that look like the 18z GFS:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS looks like it will not follow the OP:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just saw that there was a 40 year record low in Siberia.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry you've had such a rough year, I hope the upcoming one is 1000000 times better!
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z GFS has re introduced the idea of some upslope this weekend, Euro has the vort that causes it on the GFS too, but doesn't show any precip. Maybe we can squeeze out a snow shower or two?
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    There's definitely been can kicking, but I think some of that gets settled, at least with regards to the pattern, once this huge cut off upper low gets out of the way over this next weekend. I really wish we could have gotten some upslope this weekend though since I'm going to be in Boone. Upslope is a pretty hard one to screw up, even for our area, so I'll call that a can punt. Its reminiscent of a certain infamous punt from the GA TN game this year.
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