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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Where's the facebook meteorologist who types in all CAPS @Greyhound I trust that person's forecasts the most.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the AI just copy and pastes info in a more sophisticated way than the average college student lol:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    You've inspired me Carver!
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    For us plateau folks I don't know that its looking much worse. RGEM soundings don't have as pronounced a warm nose even though the boundary layer temps are less than ideal, lol. GFS soundings do have the warm nose to an extent though. Here is another example like those from last night: Since I started looking at these soundings for this system, it seemed that this warm nose was the problem more so than the boundary layer. It was enough to melt the snow at 5000 - 7000' and since the boundary layer was too warm, it just stayed a cold rain. My question is, why in the world are we getting an elevated warm layer on the NW side of an upper low. NAM shows warm advection at 700mb coming off the Atlantic: Even with that WAA we still get a pretty good sounding over a place like SE Cumberland county at hour 45: Good forcing and moisture into the DGZ and nearly isothermal later from 700 mb down. Some of the soundings above even say snow in their "best guess precip type" box, even though the precip depiction is rain. IDK though it still looks very marginal, but I guess that's nothing new. It seems like its been so long since we've even had a shot with a system like this I don't remember any personal experience to help out lol. Probably time for ye old weather rock.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Actually just read back and saw where Jeff answered this, sorry.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's one more from the RGEM this time from around Fall Branch, TN at 5am Sunday morning. That is a stout warm nose. Interestingly, it seems like the NAM is usually the one to sniff out warm noses and although it has one, it is not as notable as the RGEM's. IDK. Is forecasting some downsloping?
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's another over Hamblin county at 8 AM Sunday: says rain, but that is some good forcing into the DGZ. Rates will overcome?
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z NAM soundings show that it is darn near run thing for my area: Says thats rain and this is snow:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry for taking a million years in model watching time to get back to this. Was out quite a bit today. I think it provides an extra focus for lift and may have something to do the upper low lagging behind the surface reflection over the warm coastal waters. The flow is still S or SW at the mid levels so that as the developing cyclone throws moisture back the upper low can lift that moisture. I could also be really wrong about that write up lol. https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Inverted_trough#:~:text=An atmospheric trough with pressure,side of the subtropical high.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Further afield the MJO has lit a fire wrt cyclones in the Maritime Continent and western Pac: That does look like it is really trying to work its way into the Pacific though. WRT the Strat, there's been some slight can kicking forward in time, but I suspect it will be pretty shredded by the final week of February. That's about the same time we had one in Feb 2018.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    WPC projects an inverted trough back over Roan Mt. As it has slowed down it has kept moving further into long range for the Hi Res models, so hopefully still time for a few more adjustments for those of us on the plateau, lol.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro: Looks like heights are starting to crash at hour 90 when the run ends.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I guess we need to start watching how far south this first system pushes the boundary to try and see where the surface low will get going. I would prefer it to start up just south of Panama City and take a Valdosta -> Columbia, SC -> Raleigh type track.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z RGEM digging it the cut off all the way to the Gulf coast and looks like it is about to spread precip back over all of east TN There might be problems with cold air in this scenario below 3000'
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Red moon rising to the SE here in Morgan County: What is the old wives' tale? Red moon in evening, sting jet be screamin' ?
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Will the SE ridge help with this one and help it strengthen and wind up quicker?
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro dug more than it did at 12z IMO, consolidated everything a bit better at least in respect to vorticity: Looks like that would try to go negative at or just east of East TN
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I bet in next few days we get a wild NAMing of locations above 3000'.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    How long has it been since we've had a system so strong its dynamics drove a change from rain to snow? I'm not talking about one of the "wave rides an arctic front" scenarios we've done pretty well with lately. I mean a big old bowling ball upper low rippin' fatties. 10 or 20 years? I'd love to chase some rate driven snow this weekend across the upper plateau.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ye olden 6z GFS looked interesting for higher elevations this weekend Seemed like that was a pretty far jump southwest for the upper low
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    In terms of the next couple of weeks (not in reference to whatever happens next weekend) for you model junkies like me I think we're starting to see the long foretold Feb. SE ridge flex in modeling. I think we start to see some interesting looks show up again in LR OP runs around around the 20th.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is the wacky depiction from Feb 2 0z run:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro trying to make clippers great again for Middle TN overnight: Some EPS support (like 5/6 members, which is more than I would have expected for such a little system)
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe I'm not sure. I think it looks at a vertical and a horizontal scan so that's how it can see snow melting.
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