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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Allow me. 2019:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think it is definitely decelerating and weakening and looks to weaken quite a bit more: I guess though instead of splitting it as waves break, those waves that bring the warming are being reflected back down across the north pole into Canada. I really wish there was some 3D way to visualize not just the SPV but how a wave would attack the SPV and then be shunted back down to drive the pattern over N America.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think Polarwx is his personal website.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro's EPO would surely dislodge some cold south: Twould be interesting to see how far SE the shallow cold could make it:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    The above was from earlier in the winter. Here is a current graph for the same wave reflection phenomenon: so even though the waves aren’t destroying the SPV they could still be meaningfully reflected toward Canada if I’m reading that correctly and cause swings in modeling wrt the cold
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I’m kind of wondering if the reason we’re seeing the cold push in early February has to do with the waves being reflected as they attack the SPV and heading due south out of the North Pole through Canada. Apparently that is a thing that can happen:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    That run ended up with some 12+ inch lollipops of qpf over the Frozen Head mts.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    After the GFS's lascivious indulgence yesterday at 12z, the sinner repents and gives us our favorite February pattern! I know it is only one run, but if the trough dumps out west and fights the SE ridge, we may end up on the boundary. That is a very realistic and possible progression.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Always remember Dale from this date in 2016:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Disclaimer: the following has noting to do with the next couple of weeks. With regards to the strat stuff, EasternLI had a good post in the NY subforum this AM: You can actually see what EasternLI is talking about on the 3D maps: The top of the vortex definitely gets smaller and slows some, but the bottom seems to keep chugging along. I don't necessarily think that this means a huge change for better or worse though. 1. Even if we had a major top down SSWE, it would take until the end of Feb at this point to see real impacts in the Eastern US IMO. So we were still looking at a couple weeks of an unfavorable pattern in mid Feb. 2. A weakened SPV shouldn't impact the meta-pattern we've been in since fall, the 2.5 weeks of unfavorable pattern, then a week to a week and a half of better chances. I'd almost go so far as to say that when the pattern shifts again at the end of Feb. we will have better chances than with the one we're in or heading for now over thee next week and a half or so. Remember October? The cold snap we got for a week that month was stout. The one at the end of November, ehh, not so much. December? We all remember that one. Hopefully everyone has their water back by now. The one this month? Certainly the GFS has hinted that a major cold snap is possible, but. I suspect it will be more muted like that of November. As the wavelengths shorten and as the MJO makes it slow pass back towards the more favorable phases toward the end of February, I'm really interested to see what we end up with by Feb 25th or so.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy hour GFS sobered up, but at least it has a nice cross polar flow in the long range.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll probably eat this at 18z, but the past couple of iterations of the GFS seem to do well at guestimating timing for big HPs dropping down the lee of the Rockies. It's OP runs have had them pretty consistently for a few cycles now. I think some cold is def. dropping down, just have to hope it makes it east.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    It’s Saturday so happy hour started at noon. Half price well drinks until 18z!
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    If it rains before seven, it'll stop before eleven.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Beautiful surface track on the 22-23 storm: If only we had that track in January and there was some cold air around lol. <sarcasm intended>
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    We should have a year where instead of models, we just run through weird old mountain folklore.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pretty similar at the surface to some of the looks at range we had for the December PV visit: December GFS happy hour run at range Current happy hour GFS run at range:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nice happy hour GFS run for the ever popular day 10 window.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I feel like I've seen this Day 10 CMC Mean look somewhere before...
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Birds are acting up again. Something sort of unusual weather is on the way in the next week or two.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Something of a tangent that I noticed staring at satellite imagery this AMN, but I do think it is pattern related: The first thing to notice is the the big plunge of dry air as a trough plows through the Caribbean (gold arrow). Watch it for a few loops and get a sense of how deep that is pushing toward S America. That trough is from our upslope storm as it rolled off the coast and fired up off the Gulf Stream. The real thing of interest to me though is related to the green arrow. That Caribbean trough seems to have helped squeeze off some tropical moisture from Columbia. Watch a few loops and you can see how that moisture gets picked up by the mid latitude trough over the southwest and us now being aimed at us in the TN Valley. Not sure it means a whole lot for our weather, just an interesting moisture source lol.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Everything is stabilized for now. Definitely appreciate everyone's thoughts and prayers!
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro gave a present to you West TN folks last night: Overnight GFS strat (10 mb level) did something weird that I've never seen before: a double ridge attacking the SPV: 6z didn't have that though.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Getting pretty close to upgrading my a SSW watch to a warning. I think it probably happens now in early Feb, but the good news is that even if it does, any impacts shouldn't interfere with the chances we've been discussion above. Probably 3 weeks until we see the effects of one and of course that depends of the type we see (displacement, split (where to the individual split vortices go?)both?) The below is an ensemble mean (GEFS): GEFS mean in fact shows a 50mb split as early as under 100 hours: I suspect that could cause some short notice EPO mischief if it can percolate down from 50 mb. Euro has a quasi split at 50 mb and also has the ridging in the EPO domain. Again though, it remains to be seen how that could potentially translate down to H5.
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