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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Anybody in SWVA SEKY or the tri cities seeing snow?
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't think that's banter. Cool to look at!
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    A snapshot of just one 6 hr period on that run:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know that I've ever seen anything over the 30" color contour outside of the Sierra or some random NAM run for LeConte If this holds together as a bowling bowl at the very least I bet we get one heck of a NAMing for someone.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Actually I move the post from banter to here just so more people will be likely to see it. Please, no one put much stock in this and get let down if it doesn't happen
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    That was the official VA Creeper Trail weenie run of the year
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight Ensembles: EPS MSLP members: H5 anomalies: GEFS MSLP members H5 anomalies: GEFS quite a bit more progressive and maybe that is the way of things in this current fast progressive flow? I would also say that there is more spatial spread among GEFS individual lows, even though that ensemble has fewer members than the EPS 0z EPS: 6z GEFS centered on the same time:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight CMC clown map:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Meteocentre now has the Euro again, so we can compare the 98 storm to this one with the same color schemes: 98 upcoming pattern: I wish I could get em side by side, but I can't.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yep.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the individual low centers on the EPS:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro is going to be fun for the bowling ball system next week, lol
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    For some of you SWVA folks @BuCoVaWx @BlunderStorm Some of the Hi res 12z models are giving you some snow early Sat AM. As is the custom I have chosen the model that shows the most snow (RGEM) and chosen the prettiest graphic presentation of said snowfall (COD)
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found this over in the West Coast sub forum: https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/iwv-and-ivt-forecasts/#IWV atmospheric river models if anyone wants to fantasize about being in the Sierras
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not much of substance to add this morning other than silly MJO RMM plots: It just struck me how, if nothing else, I don't know that I've ever seen a forecast aim for 2 with that amplitude. I'm just used to the red arrow being the only way the RMMs show that amplitude, lol. OP Euro RMM not as interested.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    If anyone wants to take a stab at comparisons I made a gif of the radar from that storm (late Jan 1998) and the H5 pattern:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was actually thinking about that as I typed that out lol. I think maybe people have tried to use it as some sort of guaranteed snow index in the past, IDK.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's definitely going to be interesting to watch modeling around the 10th when the MJO RMMs show it finally kicking along into more favorable phases. I suspect we get a big SOI drop around the 10th as well. Mean EPS plots show some nice subsidence over Darwin around that time: OP GFS:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I need someone to explain to me in interpretive dance whether or not winter is over.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    What I am about to post is highly speculative (even more than usual) so use/ look at/ care about with caution. WRT the 12z GFS long range depiction of a possible NAO block developing. There seems to be a connection between this and ridging attacking the the SPV at 50mb: But this is not evident above Greenland at 10mb: What is still evident at 10 mb is a warming emerging over Siberia and aiming toward the N pole: Again it is waaaaayyyyy out there, but that is not a healthy SPV, if that sort of evolution plays out. What would be really interesting about this evolution to me, is that we've had SPV disruptions initiate over Greenland from lower down in the atmosphere (i.e. NAO), and from the warming over Siberia, but I don't know we've had one with both components since I've been posting. We remain in a SPV Watch. Amy Butler had a pretty level headed post about the evolution on the twitterwebs:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think one of the problems models are having in the medium to long range right now, is that the Pac jet is about to retract pretty abruptly from a basin wide extension to one that is more normal for a Nina: You had this a couple of days ago: and you are going to something that looks a lot more choppyL I think that's partly why the GFS or all models seems to have done so well with the pattern we are in now. The jet was pretty much overwhelming everything and it was pretty easy to see where individual shortwaves would end up. As that breaks apart though, you get individual shortwaves still flying with the speed that jet imparted, but without it aiming them all to one place. So we get the bowling ball type pattern past day 10. I will also be interested to see how all this adjusts if and when the MJO actually makes some head way into 8/1
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Let's hope so, lol. For us to get a good hit it usually means they are ridged and warm nosed. IMO things don't look better or worse for us or them. 18z GFS ushers in bowling ball season early:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    For some reason it wouldn't embed my gifs, so I'll try again here: warming elongation and shearing of the SPV 50mb ridging and 500 mb ridging below that
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