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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    There have been a couple of OP GFS long range runs that have shown a semi split over the past couple of days, but that's about it so far. One oft he frames in Jax's gif shows one of those runs.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe we can avoid Canada dumping all its cold at once this time and the Canucks will dole it out one 1038 HP at a time.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    That's awesome! Still rain here. You're above 2000' now, if I remember correctly?
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    @BackpackingWeather Here is a photo of one of the more photogenic drifts on the AT near Cammerer : And this is at a pretty low elevation on the trail up to the AT from Cosby: https://i.imgur.com/LRLnICP.mp4
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    And when I say "early" I mean within 3 hours of it starting.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    @BackpackingWeather Here is a video I took several years ago at approx this location on Bullhead Trail: This was pretty early in to a NW flow event at about 5700 feet. The video is only in SD, so it doesn't do the conditions justice. The wind was gnarly. I've seen hip high drifts (3.5') on the AT near Mt Cammerer after one of these events.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    How many rounds of thunder and rain did the TN Valley have today? 3?
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    There's been some strat can kicking, but I'd say we're still under a Strat watch:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    And there it is. First negative SOI reading since (I think) November
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    that is hands down the best LeConte/ Clingman's NAMing I've ever seen
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    A more realistic total for LeConte, just to keep my posts in reality might be 6-12 on that NAM run
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Oh Lawd it was a Le Conte NAMing at 18z
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    TBH I wouldn't be surprised if this (upcoming uplsope) is a situation where one of those vorts almost looks like a clipper with its precip heading down from the NW
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Winter Storm Watch for the TN border counties higher elevations. \ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 311 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-121000- /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0001.230113T0500Z-230114T1200Z/ Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi- Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Monroe- Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, Gatlinburg, Citico, and Coker Creek 311 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible with locally higher totals possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Mountains of East Tennessee, generally at or above 2500 feet elevation. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Kind of in a waiting for test and test results situation right now so thought I’d kill some time with what looks like a hopefully a good upslope set up. Hopefully that write up pans out lol.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I also like about this upslope is that the vorts rotating through seems to be positioned in just the right way to accentuate the Lake Michigan feed. The red arrows are vort lobes rotating in and the blue arrow is the fetch off lake Michigan. I'm not sure if it works the same way as a jet or not, but that should put places from the Smokies north in the left exit region of the vort max and help maximize not only the orographic lift but the PVA as well. There is a 500 wind max over east central MS as well: but that may be too far away to help much, The above were from the 12z 3km NAM just for resolution purposes. Euro has the two vort maxes too, just at a lower resolution.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Getting my first real taste of cold air damming here in Durham today. That N. wind is legit.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hi res models have been pretty consistent with a fetch of Lake Michigan
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM and RGEM look pretty good for NW flow on the 6z runs.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was actually just looking at the control at H5 on southernwx and said hmmmm I bet Carvers has something to say about that…. thanks for all the good discussion the past few days. I have a sick family member in Duke Medical and am in Durham for a while this week. Not able to add a lot but trying to check in and see how things look periodically.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, one sort of meta-pattern I've thought about for the past few days is that the 1.5 week cool downs interspersed with the warmer periods seem to be later in the month since Oct. So it may even be like the 23rd IMO, before the next big front tosses us a change up. I also feel like the Oct cold snap was worse than the Nov. one. If that's the case this months one may be less impressive than the Dec one (it would be pretty hard for it to be worse lol) and the Feb one may be worse than the potential Jan one. All that of course implies the repeating pattern is legit. Some of that is almost wooly worm level on my part though lol.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET for the bowling ball FWIW: I'm not even looking at precip. type for that, but guessing it is elevation dependent. Ukie does seem to be digging a bitmore than 0z.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    And just to be clear I’m not giving up totally on next weeks bowling ball, it could still trend better or we could get some good upslope. For the above (wrt the 20th) I’m just talking in terms of the long wave pattern.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    not looking good so far, lol sorry for the double post but the edit to the original wouldn't embed the picture.
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