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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Back to the RGEM though, it continues to insist that the 3rd wave Thursday is still looking rough wrt ice: 6z RGEM for the entire event: and that is the FRAM product that takes into account melting. Latest NWS blend finally made a jump toward the more SE solutions (run over run trend for the past 9 runs)
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    WRT the north or south trends, I think what we've seen with this system is pretty cool. So we have gradually been shifting the mid and upper level forcing north as the SE ridge is being resolved a bit stronger by models run over run (just using the GFS as an example of this phenomenon, not as the model I trust the most in this situation: but the low level cold push has been coming in more south each recent run as the surface HP sneaks down beneath that forcing: So what you end up with wrt precip is a north trend, but also a more fzr/ IP trend than snow:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, looks like more sleet this run, especially with the second wave
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z RGEM lightens icing amounts, but ticks south again. Past 3 runs: Latest run in full resolution:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the 18z NAM is like 10 - 20 miles south again with the freezing line.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z RGEM
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Out of curiosity I just checked and the 12z RGEM actually has me in southern Morgan county with 0.10" of FZR.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I guess the point of my post was more wrt the Aleutian low. Like you I really don’t remember seeing one consistently. I do think the big NAO in Dec is skewing that mean that Mt Holly posted. Feels like it’s been pretty +ve for a while now.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe we get a 76-77 repeat next year lol. Looks like that was a modest Nino after a mind numbing bunch of Ninas:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Stole this from the MA and thought it was interesting regarding La Nina from the NWS Mount Holly/ Philadelphia Source: https://www.weather.gov/phi/weatherstory Ah yes the Aleutian Low, a popular feature in La Ninas, lol. Seriously though, I thought La Nina's were remarkable for Aleutian ridging. TBH if you just showed me that H5 anomaly map and asked me if we were in a Nina or a Nino, I would say Nino. I think the huge anomalies in late December may be skewing it a bit:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think Carver's probably answered some of my questions regarding the SE ridge with his post, I was typing it as he was posting.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm kind of surprised that we've not seen an all out torch w/ SE ridge yet in the long range. I expected it to be from maybe the 6th - 22nd based on the cycle we've been in since fall. But it seems like it keeps getting pushed back a bit and that was why I posted the 28th for the next colder cycle. Even though the SOI has been up and down daily, the 30 day trend has been downward: It was up and up through most of December.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yep. RGEM has been pretty darn good this year. If not always perfect at least consistent. It's at range but it favors the ice to continue with the next wave Thursday. Not much else does right now, so it will be interesting to see how that evolves.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think our next monthly window starts the 28th.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Latest Euro:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Absolutely pouring rain this AM. RadarScope’s hydro meteor classification even popped a few pixels of hail heading my way.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here comes the old, oozing south over Nebraska and Iowa:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll use the ever stingy NWS model blend to kick it off: Looks like some CAD against the Ouachitas and Ozarks
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Time was, a halo around the moon tis time of the year indicated snow on the way. The old folks also used to say if snow hung around on the mountains for a while it was waiting on another one. Well, we met both of those criteria over the past few days. Halo last night: snow yesterday:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the NAM and RGEM ticked SE again with the freezing line. I'll start a thread for it.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Halo around the moon tonight. Remember when that meant snow in winter?
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yep
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing about the strat. is that I don't see any signs of it strengthening again yet, so if there is an attempt at a retrograding Scandinavian ridge later in Feb. there may not be a lot of interference. A few of the latest GFS runs have been trying to show just that, but I'd say its too far out to worry too much about now.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Do these HPs usually press better than modeled, or is that just a weenie wish casting rule?
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hopefully we can get a good NAMing over the next few days. It's been a while.
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