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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro: Looks like heights are starting to crash at hour 90 when the run ends.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I guess we need to start watching how far south this first system pushes the boundary to try and see where the surface low will get going. I would prefer it to start up just south of Panama City and take a Valdosta -> Columbia, SC -> Raleigh type track.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z RGEM digging it the cut off all the way to the Gulf coast and looks like it is about to spread precip back over all of east TN There might be problems with cold air in this scenario below 3000'
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Red moon rising to the SE here in Morgan County: What is the old wives' tale? Red moon in evening, sting jet be screamin' ?
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Will the SE ridge help with this one and help it strengthen and wind up quicker?
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro dug more than it did at 12z IMO, consolidated everything a bit better at least in respect to vorticity: Looks like that would try to go negative at or just east of East TN
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I bet in next few days we get a wild NAMing of locations above 3000'.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    How long has it been since we've had a system so strong its dynamics drove a change from rain to snow? I'm not talking about one of the "wave rides an arctic front" scenarios we've done pretty well with lately. I mean a big old bowling ball upper low rippin' fatties. 10 or 20 years? I'd love to chase some rate driven snow this weekend across the upper plateau.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ye olden 6z GFS looked interesting for higher elevations this weekend Seemed like that was a pretty far jump southwest for the upper low
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    In terms of the next couple of weeks (not in reference to whatever happens next weekend) for you model junkies like me I think we're starting to see the long foretold Feb. SE ridge flex in modeling. I think we start to see some interesting looks show up again in LR OP runs around around the 20th.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is the wacky depiction from Feb 2 0z run:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro trying to make clippers great again for Middle TN overnight: Some EPS support (like 5/6 members, which is more than I would have expected for such a little system)
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe I'm not sure. I think it looks at a vertical and a horizontal scan so that's how it can see snow melting.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Beech mountain crest looks fun this am:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    The above temp anomaly was from 6z today. Looking back at 0z, we still had a split depicted again at 50 and 10 mb, so the 3D vortex rendering should look pretty cool tomorrow. That site updates once a day for the 3D vortex with the previous day's oz data.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    No split on the GFS strat this AM, but a whale of a warming. I hate to say it for our spring, but I think its coming this time. The last attempt weakened it pretty good at 10mb. Here is the 3D vortex back in December: Here is what it looks like now: The trouble with all this is that the last attempt also seems to have strengthened it in the lower levels. Note the sort of flip that has happened with the 3D vortex. In Dec it was larger up top and smaller on the bottom. Now that has reversed. So if a SSW happens with what the GFS is depicting, it would likely be a top down type that would take 3 weeks or so to have much effect on us. The "we're due" weenie index would suggest one of these should help us after the past 3 didn't. The cynical Holston mind would suggest "at least this might keep us out of a bad la Nina severe season, lol.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I see @BlunderStorm on here. I was about to ask if you were seeing any snow
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Correlation coefficient also shows that there might be some mixed precip pretty close to the ground in the enhanced echoes just west of Knoxville: I'm under some of those higher echoes in souther Morgan county and it is just rain for me, but I would be interested to see what its like under the highest red echoes. Must be a heck of a warm nose for it to be this cold at the surface with those rates and still be rain.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some pretty enhanced echoes over middle TN. Is that just heavy rain or freezing rain? Looks like snow is just over the TN/VA border too: If I could this would be a "try Leconte" sort of a morning just see how things are up above 5000 feet.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS is at it again. : nothing to get too excited about just yet, still a long ways out. That would be a full split at 10mb though.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Soundings look ok on the RGEM too, at least for snow, but I guess the question is more of how suppressed will it be? Is this a case where NW precip shield is under modeled?
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    the soundings look ok even for the lower elevations at least on the NAM: that one is over approx. Greeneville.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pretty much the same boat here, but 32 instead of 30. I was looking at Wunderground temp maps earlier and saw it was a bit cooler there so I was wondering how you had fared.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    CMC has really been trying to create a storm at 240 hrs on some of its recent runs. Alas it is always at hr 240. But it has been consistent.
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