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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks to me like it is already worse than pretty much every model predicted for today, even 6z suite this AM: 0z ARW2 wasn't too bad with it's progression. I understand the yellows/ oranges on NEXRAD aren't exact equivalencies to a models 6/3 hr precip. or projected radar depiction, but still, those look like pretty high rates moving in.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM getting a little interesting for parts of SW VA tomorrow. Just one model and a curiosity at this point (really enjoying the sun this PM), but Euro was south-ish at 12z today and the 18z GFS is south-ish too.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found a better close up:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sun's out! VOLS win! Weird ebb and flow of the clouds off the plateau. They seem to recede, then move back. Maybe front to NW came through?
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    So how about that Euro overnight? Looks like it may be drier for this system in East TN than even yesterday's, if the Euro is right. A general 0.2 - 0.7 across both watersheds. 6z 12k NAM further north, but 3k develops the convection parallel to the Gulf and keeps higher totals further south like the Euro. The key seems to be just where that convective precip. develops. If it is further south and parallel to the Gulf it might cut off some of the precip in our area. Will it be right? Will heavier precip. seemingly magically appear on radar as the system moves in? I guess we'll know tomorrow.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    And of course now the shortwave is pulling this morning's rain further north. I give up.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    FWIW 6z NAM pretty crappy this AM: Forecast: Reality: Obviously this doesn't mean it will be right or wrong about the next system, but like the training over Knoxville, models still really struggling even as an event is happening. WV GOES 16 does seem to hint that there could be some additional development NW of current precip, but not much as of now. Thankfully as of this AM the trend over the past 3 runs on NAM is for a system with a more southerly axis of heavier precip. As the above comparison shows though, who knows what will actually verify. Euro still south too with the heaviest rain: It also seems to be overdoing the northern extent of precip this AM, unless there is something radar is missing, always a possibility with the plateau. 0z Euro also tries to give our eastern areas a dusting next Friday with a clipper type system. Any guesses on how long it teases us?
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z UKMET not too far from something with the 3/4-5/6 wave. Definitely enough room for any NW trend for now. Euro has it but more suppressed. If this one jumps as far as the 3/2-3 wave has, might not be too bad.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    At least it moves. I guess that's all there is positive to say. I don't see anything in the next two weeks involving "training" or "stalled out."
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    TRI folks, here is a fancy snow map for lunch. Somehow managed to get it within 6 days, lol.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    https://www.weather.gov/mrx/hydroevent?platform=hootsuite MRX write up
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Last 30 days for perspective
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Updated NWS 7 day precip map to include the last training over Eastern Valley:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll add I'm almost to the point where I don't look at much besides the Euro and EPS, but man the 0z Fv3 had almost the same progression for the pinball storm. Amazing how similar the tracks the vort. took were on both models. 6z fv3 was suppressed, though. Some good news too in that between the CMC, Euro, GFS, and Fv3, no model gives our area over 2inches of .qpf over the next 2 weeks! Ensemble means are a little more aggressive (as in 2.5 inches vs 2). Euro is the lowest at 1.9 over 15 days. I'll sneakily slip this in here: Sorry for the resolution, but made it a gif to save space. If any of you have access to the individual EPS members, I recommend a look at 0z member 47 from day 6 through 15, lol.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    The Euro lost the monster pinball storm. (I'm calling it that since when I looked at the energy, it is actually over the Aleutians tomorrow, but on yesterday's 12z Euro run, it bounced all around Canada and the arctic for 9 days before hitting us). But it gained three smaller threats within 10 days. One of these is in 6 days. 2 - 4 inch storm I - 40 north and then another 3 - 5 inch storm from Knoxville and points north and east. Looking at the vort maps, the "pinball storm" is still there, just slightly different placement. Very chaotic over N. America with a ripping Pac jet undercutting big vort chunks rolling in and south through souther Canada, displaced by the big EPO ridge.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was able to see the video from MS yesterday when another person posted a link to the site in question, but after the ads I saw on that site yesterday, I won't go to anything labelled meteotube unless I have to. "Very original site". Yes. Yes it is.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I know there are still major problems down stream, but for Knoxville the creeks are quickly receding. OH and TN Valleys need every dry break we can get!
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Another one of those Euro runs where I would have loved to have seen it out about 2 more days. Not that there's any reason to put much stock in that individual solution, just would have been a beautiful run for NWP curiosity's sake. Drops 12+ in 6 hours on Abingdon with more to come. Major coastal storm. I think a 6 inch snow storm probably would be better than rain at this point, but the mountains definitely do not need a 2 foot plus storm as the pattern shifts to spring and maybe more rain. Wouldn't that just be a perfect final gut punch for this winter though? We get a beautiful snow storm, but can't enjoy it because of the worry for flooding with melt.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Didn't realize weathermodels had this until your question prompted me to look.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Videos of flooding in Knox county from Knox county mayor.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sadly it looks like what is left of the convection in N AL is heading straight for portions of E TN. At least the end is in sight now on radar with no more for several days.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    And now this insanity: (Not me in case you are wondering)
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    mudslide? at Laurel Run Park in Hawkins County:
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