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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Right now it feels like watching another record -PDO.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    That was some '96 like weather at the end of the 12z GFS.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Also, it is still "slikerin' owl snot" on my deck this AM.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some interesting radar obs this AM. Ft. Campbell snow band overnight: A streamer off of Lake Michigan kinda sorta held together to make it to N. TN east of Nashville this AM: ZOOMed in:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just walked out and same here, minus any flakes.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Flurries up here in MoCo now and a howling N wind.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I also don't like to to see BAMWX chest thumping on X. Bad sign. Totally unscientific to let that to worry me, but it is what it is.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah that trough hung up over the SW doth maketh me a bit nervesome. We're firmly in MJO 6 after having spent several weeks in 4/5 and I always feel like there is a lag in the pattern over North America. I think we've seen this so many times though we're a little "once bitten twice shy" any time that trough starts to set up in the southwest.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    MRX has modified their expectations:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Finally got some really nice thunder here! Make of that what ye will for the pattern.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    HRRR has a pretty helicity swath over the current warned storm and paints another one over my head, later today! Joy
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Tornado warning SW of Nashville and East of Jackson:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    MRX mentions possibility of a tornado tomorrow. This seems like the sort of conditional set up that has surprised us the past couple of years. I am by no means a severe enthusiast, but time of day and any potential clearing, relative storm motion, yada yada just strikes me as having some sneaky potential. We need some thunder either way.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Deck measure pic, taken of course on the most elevated surface in a shady spot: Heavy wet snow stuck to everything, especially windward:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM and Euro AIFS for the win in my book with this one. Euro AIFS, last 26 runs, starting 186 hours out: RGEM's runs, starting 80ish hours out: Compare to the GFS 180 hours out: Euro from 140 hours out (couldn't get a gif further than that) and NAM from 84 hours: Looks to me like there was a progressive bias with this particular system. RGEM I think does better with big picture stuff, NAM and HRRR are better for localized precip. type issues and convective processes. 0z Euro AIFS is still trying to honk on the system Carvers noted: It is still bouncing around a bit though, but hey its 10 days out.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    That was about the temp I started to turn over.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was wondering how you were doing. I actually am pretty close to your total somehow. Absolutely exceeding my expectations. As we get some daylight it is beautiful here.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Moderate snow now. A dusting for me:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Mostly snow now. I bet Knoxtron and John probably have a dusting or more lol.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Rain/snow mix for me now.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Cold rain here this morning. I’d say about an hour until I switch over to snow. 40 and a howling NNW wind.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    If I could transport myself anywhere in our area tomorrow AM it would be High Knob, VA.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM is getting even more moisture back across the Apps for tomorrow AM now, but seems to see the cold air struggling to make it over the plateau. NAM was trending toward more moisture, but is keeping the deep stuff east of Morristown at 6z I think RGEM and Euro AIFS win this one wrt moisture. Both were going to town on this idea for a while. Biggest problem I see now is that we're pretty deep in mild, moist air right now so I think the wait and see for cold air game is, as usual, a real threat. Not pretty for a "waiting on the cold air" situation. Fortunately timing is about as good as it can get, early AM Wed, so the sme model above, shows the below: The Bastardi algorithm is much more optimistic for MBY than the Levi Cohen algorithm: Luckily all I have to do is wake up at my usual time and look out my window to see which turned out right. I think Cumberland county, John, anyone up near Wise or Harlan, KY have the best shot as of now. 100% chance John and Cumberland Co change over to snow at least 45 minutes before me lol.
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