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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sounds like some good news!
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not the obs thread, but seemed like it might fit better here. Took a group on a hike up to White Rocks near Ewing, VA. This would be the headwaters of the Powell. Water is already spewing out the side of the mountain, literally. Springs on the hillside are shooting water out. Creeks I've never seen as more than a trickle or completely dry are filling very old creek beds. The valley bottom already had creeks running out of their banks, without the additional water from the mountainside having made it there yet. All this after only round one. Creek I've never seen with any water: Waterfall at Sand Cave; Dry spring turned creek: https://imgur.com/a/DXbm4PA
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Big blocks being advertised by the Euro to develop across the N. Hemisphere. Hopefully if that happens they can effect some change in the pattern. But, as with all things this winter, 8 - 10 days. Looks like it might be snowy in N. Africa though.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah the bad part about this is that out current forecast period ends when a pattern like this is starting to become climatologically (at least in my experience) favored for this area.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    0z Euro still with widespread 6 - 7.5" through TN and Ohio watersheds. Some areas 8+. WPC basically sums it up. And that discussion above as well. Just amazing how wide the 7 - 10 inch field is. Weathertree I think janetjanet mentioned that a run of the GFS yesterday broke the pattern down, but (janetjanet can correct me if wrong) I took that as just a hopeful mention of what that model depicted as a way out of this awful pattern. 6z GFS is back to this; Basically GFS think we are one of the most soaked places on earth over the next 15 days. Good news is that it's just one run of the GFS. That being said, the 0z Euro really flattens the jet after day 7-8 and that would help a lot. Maybe not totally shut off precip, but at least stop this training mess. The Euro control (Euro itself run at slightly lower resolution), keeps it coming though, but with a slightly more suppressed flow.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS with aims the highest QPF mean into N. Alabama as of 12z today. 8-9 inch mean into N. Alabama and 7 - 8 inch mean into N. GA.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Alright severe people, I'm coming over to play for a week or two. I have access to all these fancy maps and nothing to use them on for now. What would you like to see? I really don't know what to look for in terms of severe weather, so let me know. But if I'm going to post Kuchera snow maps for winter folks, may as well most CAPE/ shear/ K index (whatever that is, but think has something to do with severe) maps too. Euro Surface CAPE: Euro Deep Layer Shear: Euro K Index: Here are other Euro products I have access to, but don't know what half of them mean:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yes, I have summoned you! But in all honesty, would it be any worse than Flora or Heath or Jimbly-bob, or whatever the Weather Channel goes with? Maybe Old Gregg?
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    #Grumpycat
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Have a buddy in Wetumpka, AL. Tornado hit 3 blocks from his house.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Finally found the site that has all the neat stratosphere prog maps I've been seeing in different places. https://stratobserve.com/tht_pvstr_maps
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    A collection of realtime charts, some hard to find like AAM and GWO: http://atlas.niu.edu/ I'm not sure how to read some of this yet, but thought some might find it useful.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found a new toy for past MJO( some of you may already have this) : http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found a nice website for N. Hemisphere info: https://yannickpeings.wixsite.com/nhatmosphere/copy-of-october-november-1
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    So... is the Modoki off the table @jaxjagman? Basin-wide moderate, or are things still in flux? Source of my question: Does Modoki vs. normal El Nino make that much difference for TN valley in the long run in terms of Winter pattern? Just heard so much about Modoki over the past years (not necessarily on here) and had my hopes up for something unusual this winter.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found an interesting site from the University of Wisconsin with some non operation GOES 17 imagery: http://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=G17-ABI-FD-BAND01 Also, thanks to all for the good conversation lately (esp. Fall-Winter spec.), have been wanting to participate more, but swamped with work at this time. Although just catching up it looks like boring heat is the optimal word for now.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it's all trying to consolidate into a line now over the upper Cumberland plateau. Hopefully that puts and end to most of the tornado threat for those folks. No disrespect meant to any chasers in any way.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Cell in Monroe county, KY looks to be developing a hook. https://imgur.com/jomk03r
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I saw Michael Ventrice on twitter say he thought this was going to be the biggest outbreak so far this year, but I suppose he could have been hyping to get followers. I just don't know enough about looking at severe parameters to tell how significant this looks. Also since I'm on the other side of the plateau and all this looks to be moving W - E, usual that means everything has consolidated and weakened by the time it gets to the eastern valley. I was surprised by the T-storms this morning and maybe that indicates the atmosphere is a little more prepped that it may seem at first glance? At work in Harriman right now and there are a lot of clouds here and that usually (but not always) spells stability, at least for my neck of the woods. But looks like the deck is starting to break up on GOES 16.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found this nice website that has some limited, but nice ECMWF data for the N. Hemisphere. I think it is all past data, but still useful http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found this nice write up on 300 -250mb level while trying to learn more about what was causing the lift over SW VA this evening. https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/winds/JetStream_Stuff/300_200_chart.htm
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting find from a meteorologist in the MA forum regarding how the WPC generates their snowfall and other winter precip types probability forecasts: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/about_pwpf_products.shtml
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Seeing the link Carvers Gap posted in the speculation thread, made me remember a storm I was always curious about. I was in Kingsport at DB at the time and remember a what was probably a weird upper low that just spun over East TN. I remember the radar showing snow everywhere but Kingsport and the analogue of 3/26/99 seems to fit that bill. I wasn't into weather as much at the time, but enough to notice the weirdness of it. Any one have any memories of that one?
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    And I thought my waterfalls coming out of Cumberland county were full before: Sorry should have included the scale, 4.80 inches is the white
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