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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Got some snow in MoCo too:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just drove out toward Frozen Head and looks like snow above 2500' Just saw a pic from Crossvile on the news and some pretty big flakes i na quick flurry there, hopefully I'll see some soon!
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Fun band of cold advection/ orographic precip to the lee of the north flank of Frozen head mts aimed into N. Knox county:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pretty wild pictures from Clinton:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Video:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Got a video of it coming through Oak Ridge, will post when I get a better internet connection.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Absolutely pouring as the front is about to come through. No thunder yet, but the precip rates and thunderstormy.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking at overnight Euro, RGEM, and GFv3S, kinda wondering if I can get a flurry this evening. May take a quick jaunt up to Frozen Head as the precip. ends to see what I can see.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    NWP experiment time: A little enhanced convention near the dateline. Does that correlate to a 12z colder suite of models? Not saying that it will actually be colder when the future arrives, but curious to see occasional how flare ups here or there in the Pac and Indian Oceans can impact one run or another of a model. Which will be more impacted? GFv3S or Euro? Probably not quite scientific to base my conclusions on one run or another, but as an avid model chaser it seems interesting to think about after last year's Indonesian convection of doom (the ICD index, lol, patent pending).
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Another fancy ERA5, this day in weather history (1993 ERA5 still my fav). 3 feet of snow atop LeConte though!
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro trying to show higher elevations some love for Halloween night, but could just be the thingy models do where they show acc precip lingering for 6 hours after it has already gone in reality Can Blunderstorm get a flurry? Hopefully, but only time will tell.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Two weeks and 4 inches of rain turned dry creek beds at Frozen Head into: https://imgur.com/a/iEI7IH5 (Time lapse waterfall)
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    via Imgflip Meme Generator
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I've gotten around 2 inches in the past 24 hours! Both GFS and Euro think more is on the way too!
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Douglas lake effect:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Speaking of the Euro and cold, the end of last nights OP run looked pretty nippy for late Oct. I'll throw the gif out for fun, but just the precip. one since the temps don't actually look all that bad lol, but maybe my standards for cold are too high: Isobars running from Baffin island to Iowa. I imagine if this verified it would be hard freeze time once that front clears us. I know it is just one run, but the GFS has spit out some pretty cold solutions in the Halloween time frame. The question now seems to be, as y'all say above, will this be a cold outbreak before a pattern shake up?
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Speaking of snow, it is almost that magical time of year again, time for the EPS 45 day maps!!!!!
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Windspeed beat me to it, lol! I was trying to find some site that had a weird ratio accum. map to post. If we assume 30:1 ratios someone would have over a foot!
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wish I felt more confident writing about the long term so I could contribute more, but after all the time I spent trying to figure out last winter and repeatedly getting my tail handed to me I'm sheepish. I know the Atlantic has the AMO, but does it have any other sea temp indices? The Pac has the PDO and ENSO, but the Atlantic only gets that one? Maybe since it is upstream of the US, when meteorologists were studying these indices the Pac got more attention, or maybe the Pac is just bigger and more important for NH patterns. What doest he PDO do exactly? Is it impactful for the convection influencing the polar jet and how that interacts with MJO fueled Hadley cells further south? As far as Pac sea surface temps go in ENSO zones, I feel like last year taught whipped me to wait and see where the convection pops and behaves after the MJO becomes active and influential for NA. Is the Pac still really warm basin wide? As anomalously warm as last year? Not rhetorical questions, and I'm guessing it is, but I can't remember where the anomalies were and how they looked last fall/ winter. Looking at the current sea surface anomalies, if I just eyeballed that from an admittedly hobbyist POV, looks Ninaish for now, but with little warm water to fuel convection in the usual Nina MJO location. Sure enough, current satellite reflects that: But according some discussion above (maybe back a bit), in our ENSO thread, and Lord Masiello of Wxtwitterlandia, some form of ye olden Modoki may be on the docket? And indeed there do seem to be some warm bubbles westward in those ENSO zones. But like I said above, I feel like I want to wait and see where the convection tries to set up since all the warmer areas and even the areas where there is a contrast between abv. and below normal SSAs can have a say as well. Here is something I found while trying to find a ENSO subsurface map that might be even more helpful for this convo than the map I was originally looking for: At least there is some certainty hope for drought relief, esp. for eastern forum areas:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Seeing some readings on Wunderground this AM in the 20s on the plateau. A 27 near Obed. I live near the Mossy Grove KTNOAKDA6 station and we're close to freezing at 35.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Downright wintery feel this AM at Frozen Head, after the warmth. 47 in the parking lot and probably a few degrees cooler as I went up 1000 or so feet. Raining up there and though I'm sure it was still waaaayyyy up there, the rain/snow line at least felt close.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Too soon?
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    For the past few years the apathy for Vol football hasn't set in until November. Don't get me wrong, I'll still watch, but I think GA State went ahead and dashed all hope, lol.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Strangely enough I'm a little more optimistic about some sort of pattern change after yesterday. The first fully cloudy day in a while for my area, with at least a minuscule amount of rain at the end of it. Maybe these systems are just digging a little more as the seasons change but despite how bad the ensembles have looked and continue to look, yesterday was a real change even if only a small one. In terms of the long range, I feel like the past couple of weeks were a lot like last winter in that the long range kept looking like a flip, but the long awaited Pacific pattern set up just a little too far west to get a trough here. Now looks like another of these little fronts swinging through later in the week. EPS and GEFS are at least having some members change things up after next week, since they show the ridge shifting west, but at 180+ hours could also just be random dispersion of so many members. I will say western Canada looks like it will get some snow from the big trough digging out that way. And hey maybe the EPS MSLP analysis is on to something developing a high up that way. Not sure if it is too early in the season to look at something like that, but even a little break would be nice:
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