Jump to content

Holston_River_Rambler

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,559

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still snowing a bit up here in Morgan County. Hopefully a good sign for later upslope events for my location.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still peppering down up here on the plateau: Not amounting to anything, but pretty to see!
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Got another little snow shower swinging through. Tiny flakes though, so not showing up on radar.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    About 1/2 an inch here in Morgan County. Works for me!
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Front still not quite to my location yet. Just walked out and still mild. It has to be close though. I bet I'm currently getting downsloped by Frozen Head area.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    You can see the front on radar in northern Scott and Campbell counties:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Was thinking about the system last Jan and found the radar loop that looks towards the end anyway, like what the meso models have been doing for E TN tomorrow AM. Jan 29, 2019: Obviously this one is different with more precip. initially, but will be interesting to see how it compares when all is said and done. Now:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think what we're waiting on is a little shortwave to race up from the southwest and give us those last few hours of enhancement. I really think some eastern valley areas with any trapped moisture and that extra bit of lift could do better than me here on the southern edge of the plateau. Blue Ridge don't kill me but I wonder if a Greeneville to JC to Abingdon line might do the best?
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    MRX updated their snow map. I like that 2 - 3 over Frozen Head. I'm at 1300' and just southwest of it.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro backs off on totals a bit, but not so much as to be disappointing. Getting close to "watch and see model" time I reckon. SREF in one hour
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Fortuna iuvet audentes. SREF jumped up for the Great Valley. Likely a good NAMing incoming! Edit: Not quite as good a NAMing as I though
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Good old Euro also not too, too far from bringing some version of the legendary Thursday storm back: Potential NW trend over the next 5 days for the win?
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Everything seems to show a little precip. max traveling ENE, just a question of where it sets up. 12z GFS favors Tellico and valley, RGEM John and areas just north of me.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Morgan County about the same as Chatt. Just noticed it today lol, before I read this. In late September, just after I moved though, I did notice a lot of trees above 2000 feet were losing leaves but not really changing too much. Just splashes of yellow at that time, all over the ridges top to bottom.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS and GEFS interested too: What a beautifully timed dance between 2 short waves: as Carver's said, perfect track!
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Frabjoyous, gleeful, fulsome day/ let us enjoy it whilst we may.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wondering this AM if next week's early system ends up like the one last January (patent pending Dayton micro lee side low storm). At hour 102, there is some higher precipitable waters creeping up the valley: and relative humidity at 700mb looks good through hr 108: and at 850mb it looks good with some upslope type flow through hr 120: for lift, there is still the tail of a jet streak to our north and west through hr 108: and some cyclonic vorticity through hour 114: All the ingredients are there for an inch or so (not that all of it might stick) and this is kind of what happened with that January storm last year. A little relative humidity gets stuck after nosing its way from the south up into the mid eastern valley between the plateau and Smokies and you get a few hours of lift from upper level features and then from some typical upslope flow. Northern Blount and Sevier counties did ok:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think that might have been 2 years ago that they had that big anafrontal or over running event there and NC. Isotherm's winter forecast is out and to sum it up, we better enjoy next week, lol: http://www.lightinthestorm.com/
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I will call this one a win if I can get it within SREF plume range and get to try and extrapolate the incoming NAM, lol! Think you have to wait for the typical 6, 12, 18 and 0z runs? No says I! Just SREF ninjy 'em at 3, 9, 15 and 21z!
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Cool November Euro run for posterity's sake, for those who don't have access:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like someone is going to get NAMed by the Euro this run. First model play by play of the year too in some subforums!
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Indeed it does: Still a little early for the close up maps though.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Good thing we have the Euro on our side with that one. GFS has been moving more and more toward the Euro's solution for the later week system over the past few runs. I think we also want to see more of a sharp dig out of the piece coming out of Alberta to get us under a nice right entrance region. As Tellico pointed out the GFS is more progressive with it, so hopefully it will also end up with more of a dig. With some of the thoughts about a possible warm up mid month, it would make sense that we could have a chance at something beforehand. Also, check out the buckle over western North America at the end of the 0z Euro. That might force some energy pretty far south. As Carvers has been pointing out still some big highs helping all this along. I feel like a lot of those we saw last season seemed to weaken as we moved forward toward verification time, but new season, maybe new outcome. Along those lines the piece of energy that gives us a chance at hour 180 is currently over Siberia and according to both the GFS and Euro comes across the North Pole:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro is love!? Euro is life!?
×
×
  • Create New...