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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking at all the individual EPS members for the hr 192 deal, probably the best look for a winter threat this season. Now that may not be saying much, but there seemed to be several solutions that favored a system south of us, or some version of OP. Last night, many looked like cutters, but a nice shift IMO.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wonder if it is spliting the difference between some Miller As and Bs
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z EPS seems to want a Apps runner for the 13 - 15th storm, but still a ways yet to go:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Can we get the below pattern again in Jan and Feb? k plz thx
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not nearly anything like what Shocker had here in my part of Morgan County, but still getting an occasional flurry south of Wartburg. Temp dropped 3 degrees the last 100 feet of my drive up the plateau on hwy 27.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    After yesterday's thunder saw this: Thunder in November and December was thought to portend a peaceful, fruitful year ahead, sadly no mention of snow, but snow is important for a good year to me, lol. "On November hit bodeth [a] blissfull year"
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is a fun system for sure. Nice squall line in middle TN now heading this way. Maybe it will surprise with the NW flow tomorrow night too!
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    More thunder in Morgan County. Pretty good cell just to my north. Two thunderstorms = two snowfalls, right??? There is a mountain nearby too.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    First official winter observation: Thunder rolling on the plateau. The most thunder I've heard in a while. Some rolling for over a minute. starts about 10 seconds in, would have recorded longer but my wife interrupted my weather geek out Edit, as the storm gets closer, it has the most vivid lightning I've seen while in Morgan county.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM looks really nice too.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think last year's December storm was while the MJO was in 3. Would fit for this year too if one were to materialize. Overall I'm still much happier with the tropical convection situation than last year. I think even the worst case depiction on the Wheeler diagrams only takes it to the end of 3 toward 4. Looks to me like most models want to take it back into the COD. The Euro definitely wants to extend the Pac jet, but also looks like the oft tweeted Sea of Okhotsk/ Kamchatka low that is helping to drive that jet is pumping up a big EPO ridge. Further east that translates to some blocking and maybe forcing some storms further south, just not sold yet that energy can get beneath us. But we have an interesting NWP coincidence where the Euro and GFS have energy in similar places over North America at the a similar time. [The GFS gif begins after the Euro one ends, sorry for any confusion].
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    At least in the near term, been pretty nice to see the consistency with the depiction of the NW flow event next Sunday night into Monday AM. Moisture all the way up to 500mb with a nice flow off of Lake Michigan: Gives us this: (Is that a 6" near Blunderstorm?!) Obviously NE and elevation favored, but I'm curious to see if I can get a flurrific band here SW of the Frozen Head mts with this set up. The flow looks a lot like the one that kept me in flurries all day a couple of weeks ago, if I go by that nice image Knoxtron took of the accumulations from that storm: I'm just afraid flow from that direction ain't gonna last too long, so areas that do better with a WNW or NW flow will probably get more bands. Happy Thanksgiving!!!!
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Speaking of long range model flip-flops, just as a hypothetical to add to what tnweathernut posted, happy hour GFv3S brings the long range goods. Obviously it is what it is, not meant to be taken literally, all the necessary caveats, but that is a nice possible look with the energy diving towards the gulf and a stuck 50/50.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    0z Euro looked even better for that. Would be a nice atmosphere for setting up Christmas decorations!
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    New house came with a creek that shows up when it rains! Some thunder with the cells towards the back of the rain shield:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Little damp this morning...
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just when I think the GFS can't surprise me, it does. One of the more bizarre looks for the pattern over North America I've ever seen at the end of its run. Almost like it is trying to set up the same pattern that caused flooding last Feb. but with snow.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pretty trend of the trend on the GEFS over the pst few runs: EPS not bad either:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Down to 42 now. I've been paying more attention to longer range stuff and today kind of snuck up on me. I was trying to quikcrete some fence posts and hd 9 bags laying outside when it started to rain. Glad it was just a quick shower!
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Had a surprise shower this afternoon. Cool, cloudy, NW flow.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the tropical mess is definitely different this year. I just hope it leads to a good snowsome outcome. Last year's tropical convection was stuck in the Indonesia area was driving the SSW and I think there was even some discussion of it creating a feedback loop. Looks like it is the same situation this year, but in a very different region, over the western Indian Ocean and Africa. EPS thinks it wants to stay there for a bit. What's extra interesting to me right now is having the best tropical forcing further west is being projected to have a similar result. Last year the catch phrase was mountain torque and Masiello seemed to suggest at least once that MSLPs in East Asia were facilitating a more efficient transport of heat to the strat at high latitudes. Of course that's only if I even came close to interpreting him correctly. It kinda made sense at least in a visual way. Tropical forcing shaped the expanded Hadley cells in and they and Ferrell cells helped guide the jet(s). SSW helped lower the tropopause in the tropics and cold airmasses in Siberia dropping down even made it to the Phillippines and all this helped maintain convection where it was. My question is now how is all this going to play out with a new year and obviously new circumstances. We're definitely not doing loop de loops in MJO phases 4-5-6 this year! Does the forcing further west lead to more Ural mountain torque instead of Himalayan? TBH I'm not even sure what that means, but surely it can't have entirely the same result or can it? Very interesting too to see some of the divergent thoughts folks have on how the winter will play out in the broader AmWx forums and wxtwitter. Isotherm emphatically says toasty east of the Rockies D - J, but seems a bit more cautious for Feb - March, based on the descending QBO and possible high-latitude blocking developing then. Isotherm was also firmly against there being anything like a SSW before mid to late Jan. Griteater seems fairly optimistic to me and emphasizes the IOD and a -NAO. Isotherm only mentions it the IOD once and argues for a predominantly +NAO. On the other hand, Grit thinks that the "The NPac SST pattern [will] evolve thru winter based on the winter 500mb pattern. For example, a pattern with an anchored Aleutian Low and Western North America ridging would lead to a +PDO SST structure." Isotherm went negative on the PDO. Raindancewx is like Grit, but to paraphrase him, a tad further west with the cold anomalies. Eric Webb seems to be all about a warm December (#loltorch?) and Masiello wants to stay by his fire from late Dec on. Does he just like fires? Or is he showing his hand? After trying to decipher him last winter, I'm not so sure. Gun to my head, I'm watching the tropics to see where the convection sets up and how that effects the jet. But this winter just feels different and colder to me so far. Will be interesting to follow the strat. for a bit and how models deal with the MJO being in the COD.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro weeklies look awful. Hopefully that is an awesome sign!!!! Last year it seemed like reality was the opposite of what they foretold:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    And somehow I now have nearly the biggest snowflakes of the event for my location, lol.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    So, any thoughts on late Thursday night y'all? Euro been edging up awfully close over the past few runs: 850 temps look marginal, but hey, what do we have to lose: And that's not an awful track for two dancing shortwaves: Still 48 hours out and room for a slight NW trend?
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