Holston_River_Rambler

I vaguely remember the radar on old school TWC filling in from CSV toward TRI for the blizzard of 96. 6" overnight and then freezing drizzle the next day, followed by 6 more inches of snow. I remember being able to make snow tunnels under the ice layer. Days of tubing and sledding down this hill: snow plowed on the sides and compacted to create almost a bobsled track. KPT schools were closed for a week. Then a bigger snow hit in Feb., 18" for me IMBY at that time. I think there was one more storm, but I don't remember that one. I wish I had access to radar data or could figure out the ERA5 data to refresh my memory.

A few GEFS members show some snow for the 6th (before the big storm the OP showed at 18z):

wow

Yeah it's just loading up two more TPV lobes to sling our way.

I think something broke on the COD precip type output too: Just random blobs of snow with the TPV lol.

The progression at least in terms of precip type over TRI reminds me a heck of a lot of Jan 96. In Kingsport, we had 6 inches of snow followed by some freezing drizzle, and then 6 inches of powder.

Somebody in the Mid Atlantic sub forum is going to need a change of pants after this run finishes

I think it will be pretty epic, but I was just thinking earlier I didn't want epic at hr 240+ But some of the ensemble members in the GEFS and EPS had similar solutions at 12z.

At least it kicks it out and doesn't totally cut it off, but yeah it could be in error. Kind of hope it isn't though lol.

I think this will be a good run.

Looking good through hr 231

Yeah, its got some room to grow.

We're the Keys source region!

First 12z Ensemble means: EPS: GEFS: Canadian ENS: EPS members: EPS members (2): GEFS members: CMC members:

Euro wasn't too far off IMO, suppressed, but not as bad as the GFS dropping a TPV over the outer banks. There have been some wild ensemble runs lately, I'll post once EPS members are in and we'll see what that looks like.

Well, Euro is running on Weatherbell, let's see what the wheel of NWP spins out for us now.

There's a frame with ocean effect snow in the middle Keys.

6z was even better.

Kind of a non sequitur from me this AM but we finally have the MJO as plotted on the RMMs moving out of 6: I don't really put a ton of stock in the RMMs alone, but from the perspective of model watching, I think they can kind of give us a plotted idea of the "numerical" part of Numerical weather prediction, i.e. models and where they're coming at the pattern from. I just found it interesting that whatever slew of variables it looks at had the value stuck in 6 for almost 10 days, despite model forecasts consistently trying to move it out and now it is finally chugging along.

That reminds me, I found something up in Kingsport yesterday:

@Met1985

Just looked at the 12z Euro and that looked nice.

Definitely quite a spread with tropical Pac convection, but it does seem to be trying to glacially slide eastward. First thought when I saw this was Darwin looks less stormy than Tahiti and sure enough we have a rare (for this fall and early winter) negative SOI today. Pretty good drop over the past few days too, relative to recent trends:

The only thing I can think to add is that the MJO RMM plots and whatever combo of factors that go into giving any individual day a place on the plot (OLR, wind anomalies, etc...) have been really stuck in low amp 6 for a few days now. I've not really posted much since I don't know what I can add at this time, but I have been watching the MJO and even though it's been slow it hasn't really gotten stuck over the past few weeks. It is now firmly stuck. Maybe those same "stalled" anomalies are competing with each other in how the OP GFS model resolves and propagates their influences them and causing some western trough tendencies? Feels kind of like I'm grasping at straws, but western troughs... ugh.

Euro AIFS ensemble? https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.15832