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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap Here are the 500 mb of the weeklies: 1/2: 12/30: and the 850 temp anoms. 1/2: 12/30:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I know I'm not saying a Requiem for January snows yet, despite what Mempho wants, but the next 15 days look 2019 February style wet for someone in the valley. Gonna have to get the ark gifs back out. Some of the middle and west TN folks already have flood warnings and advisories, in addition to the new watches and there's a new one that just popped up just south of Chattanooga in AL.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    It could for sure. Masiello was commenting how warm the waters were there now, thanks to the IOD causing the extreme heat in Australia. I wonder if once it gets going, it it will even out do modeled expectations.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy hour GFS agrees with the Euro Control. 12 - 14 inches of rain over the next 13 days.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS still kinda likes this Saturday evening and overnight for plateau east for a dusting to an inch. Before that, that fire hose is pointed at me in Morgan County. Mesoscale models and Euro aim the heaviest band of precip right at Cumberland and Morgan counties. Will be interesting to see exactly where it sets up.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    How far is your location above flood plain?
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pretty good agreement for at least a dusting - inch from the plateau east on the EPS: for some reason 0z hadn't yet loaded on weathermodels. Soon we shall be in SREF range, then the fun will really begin, lol!
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Don't know if I've ever seen two pieces of energy from such different places phase nearly overhead. If any of us can get this upper low to pass over head, could be some fun lapse rates and dynamics. Yeah, just saw that Nashville already has flood warnings and advisories in addition to the nearly valley wide flood watches, so that atmospheric river isn't promising:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Glad you mentioned that. The EPS looks that way too. If you run the EPS fast, it sort of looks like it's glitching. Not weathermodels, but the pattern lol. Maybe the whole NWP H5 pattern has reached a point where it can't get any worse and model attempts to project a worsening pattern are about to have a critical error?
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Watchlist for now. Fortune's wheel may yet spin out a new fate and besides, upslope may be lookin' good for the plateau with this upper level energy around day 5 on the Euro.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thank you!
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Saw some people talking about severe thunderstorms with snow in NE today. Thought I'd share: Heavy snow and hail, lol
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro already starting to see the convection firing over the Maritime continent as soon as 36 hours: With all the confusion as to where the MJO actual was, there was a met at 33 and rain who suggested it was in the central Indian Ocean a few days ago. Makes sense then, that it it would now emerge over the MC and that's what most RMM plots have been and continue to show. Crocuses are already coming up here at 1300 - 1400 feet in the plateau. I don't have the heart to look for the daffodils I planted yet, lol. The strat is approaching record levels of cold and to be honest, I'm kind of glad there's no threat of a SSW or split. Maybe it will help models to settle down a bit now that the IOD has quieted down. Although... the Euro control and to a lesser extent the EPS members want to fire convection back up there after mid Jan: I'm interested in raindances forecast, since it seems to match what we are seeing in the near term with the Euro's depiction of MC convection in a few days. However, the QBO would favor more convection over the MC if Tellico (and the the paper I posted in the education section, not sure if that was the one Tellico was mentioning or not) is right. Even though the strat is pretty cold and the vortex is wound up: You can still see a few lobes near the troposphere occasionally wobbling this way and that. These show up in the tropopause as positive or negative swirlies: So even though there doesn't seem to be any help from the strat, that still isn't stopping occasional eddies disrupting the pole at H5 and in fact that is what we've seen most of this winter. I suspect that unless the MJO comes alive and stays alive in the MC, raindance may be right in if not all the specifics, at least the idea of a colder February, since that does match what we've seen already this winter. Still hopeful for something before all this though. Overnight EPS still see a couple of distinct periods of possibilities:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Same here. Had a few good thunder showers last evening.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I found (I think) the paper that Tellico has been talking about and have screengrabbed some images from it (diagrams and conclusions). Still a little under the weather and not sure I could figure this out without more time than I have even if I was felling better, but thought we might like to see it as the MJO moves forward. NPST = North Pacific Storm Track Source: Wang, Jiiabao, et al. "Modulation of the MJO and the North Pacific Storm Track Relationship by the QBO," Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, (2018), 3976 - 3992.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    By 162 hours quite a few of the GEFS members see that cut off N of Hawaii, but gets a bit murkier after that:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Man, if we could get a Upper low to get stuck for a while NE of Hawaii like that: just keeps reloading that -EPO
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's a positive for you John: Now, obviously that is ONE member of 51 ensembles and exceedingly unlikely to happen, but I will say that the EPS does see a few ways (more than recently) for some cold and snow over the next 15 days, so that is a positive! Why, even Chatt has like a 1 : 1000 shot too!
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro may be trying to throw us a bone at the end of its run. Cold looks good: PNA ridge building and forcing some energy south of us Energy is buckling the jet: But things are too progressive to the east of us on this run and the Gulf is cut off.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thanks for all the good discussion all. I think the flu has finally closed its fevery hands around me. Was perusing the twitter sphere and saw that the 12z Euro control has some weirdo blocking configuration. All I can get from the EPS members is precip. over CONUS, but any of y'all have that with a NA H5 pattern? Not that it's worth much at 10 + days but it is showing a Miller B with a front end thump for NE areas locally. Aaannnd of course I say "not worth much" and proceed to write about it for half an hour, lol!! In terms of the non tropical forcing, crankyweather was saying to watch a piece of the TPV that was just dislodged and as far as I can tell that's the piece that has been helping set off the reaction that's been giving us the crazy GFS solutions lately. 7 - 9 is the time frame they've been in, but still not in OP Euro range. Normally I would draw on the gif, but my drawing program, much like my immune system, has crapped out on me. What I have put on there with giphy are two arrows. The black one near Russia points to the piece of the TPV that cranky was talking about. Watch as it kicks toward the sea of Ohkutsk (Masiello was the one who tweeted about this today and helped me put the two together) and bombs out a low there, temporarily upsetting the nasty Pac. That sets off a chain reaction that ends up kicking a piece of energy south and pops a low (red arrow indicates trajectory). Obviously not super confident in a specific outcome, but speculatively, even if the worse MJO forecasts have us in the COD after a quick trip through 8, we'd be in the COD around that time after the short trip through more favorable phases, so coupled with what y'all have been talking about might be interesting to see how that system trends over the next week. After that, dice tossing time.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Fun time fog development this AM: As I was driving to Kingsport this AM, fog rolled in at Oliver Springs and ended at Strawberry Plains. No fog before Oliver Springs though. Satellite shows it hitting the plateau and I guess the dewpoints were lower??
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy Hour GFS brings a snowpacalyspe just off the NE coast. Yes that is a 939 low!!!
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    NC_Hailstorm was saying that: "There's now a forecast of kp3(elevated solar wind/EEP) for 12/25 12/26 and 12/27 that was NOT there three days ago.Any extra solar wind/EEP will try to stall and loop the MJO into Maritime,and given the 4-8 day lag that's why its trying to loop it around Jan 1st-5th." Hopefully we don't have another 6 weeks of heavy convection this Jan in the MC regions
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Merry Christmas to all! I ventured forth to the land of Carvers today and lo I saw a sign: Yeah and verily even over the Holston River itself. A bald eagle watching the river. But as I approached more closely it flew away. Perhaps it is a sign the American models will come to our aid after the new year. It did fly SWerly though, so maybe not, lol!
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Actually 0z Euro wasn't too far off either:
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