Jump to content

Holston_River_Rambler

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,560

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like member 50 of the EPS is going to go crazy with snow. Knoxville has something like 40 or 50 inches of snow, lol. I will post a gif of the system once it loads on weathermodels.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's a closer version with some more individual numbers:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think I found it on weathermodels: so I guess it is just off the ground, like 30 feet?
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Are those surface gusts or higher up?
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro also now trying to split the SPV like the GFS:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS bringing the goods this PM:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    GOES model starting to support the GFS in knocking around the SPV a little. GOES: GFS: Here's what it looks like in a more colorful, but 2D gif: That one is at 50mb, which should correlate to around the 650 level on the Potential Temperature scale on the 3D models. Euro doesn't look anything like the GFS, but the GFS does have a better track record with these, at least the past couple of years. If this were to happen, I wonder if because the SPV was so strong and well coupled with the troposphere, if it might have more effects than previous ones?
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap Sorry, been out this PM, hadn't even had a chance to look at it and just logged in. Here you go. Not sure why it blinks a little at the end, but weathermodels has been acting up lately.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I’m thankful for on the 12z Euro is that the heaviest rains seem to be shifting to the south of our watersheds.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Good luck y'all. I'm back up to 41. Areas N and NE of Frozen Head look good as on now.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Down to 40 already. Some locations nearby in the upper 30s. I guess we have to wait and see how stout the 850 jet is.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah that was a pretty ending for happy hour!
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I haven't looked at tropical convection in bit, so thought I'd give it peek. According to the RMMs we are in 4, but I would say that there is more to the convection than the RMMs now: Western Pac: Now granted that doesn't look great, but if you subtract that TC over Norther Australia, convection looks pretty scattered out and there's even a few flare ups in the N. Hemisphere, pretty far to the east. IOD region is looking active again too, but there are also some flare ups in sub Saharan Africa and I think that correlates to phases 8 and 1. According to the JMA OLR plots It's having some effect from that region, but is being muted a little by the deep subsidence over India. EPS mean really wants to quieten down the Maritime Continent pretty quickly now. Mean OLR of days 10 - 15: Honestly, I'm kind of surprised it doesn't look worse right now in the MC region, given how some of the MJO forecasts looked. Maybe it gets worse there sooner, but still doesn't look nearly as bad as it did last year.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    A NAMing for some areas at 18z, but the only model to show it so far;
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Same here too:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some heavy graupnel and snow in Wartburg. Visibility drops pretty quick under one of these showers:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Had a few sleet pellets earlier, but that was about it so far. Some thunderstorm type dark clouds as it rolled through though.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found this on Southwernwx this AM. Eric Webb shared a link to Paul Roundy's experimental MJO forecast model and this also shows not only tropical forcing, but also how it impacts the N. Hemisphere's 500 mb pattern. It shows a possible end to all this by the end of January and even if it still takes a bit to develop a good pattern after that, at least it should shut off the rain for a while.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Courage friends. As soon as the GFS sees the MJO somewhere else, even if only the COD, it will show fantasy storms again. Ugly for rain, for now though. GEFS and EPS as they evolve in 10 - 15 days range try to aim the jet from the SW to NY state and that puts us on the right entrance region of it. EPS mean is 5.8 for Crossville and the control drops nearly 10 inches of rain. Juts gonna depend on where the best lift sets up for each system, in terms of flooding, but I think the heavy rain is a done deal. In the mean time, looks like we will get a good upper low pass, from the plateau eastward: Although the energy is getting a little squished. Hopefully we can get a snow squall or two this PM. Winds have already picked up here on the plateau and the temp is falling.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    About 2 inches so far now. EPS mean starting to show 7 inches in some spots over the next 15 days: Individual city charts:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm at 1.4" since midnight and the firehose really just started in the past half hour. Not promising to see a bunch of flash flood warnings in its wake:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Somehow the 500 mbs were in sync for easy comparison, but not the 850s. I didn't do that on purpose, it seems to be just luck of the draw.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    No worries, I can. I keep trying to find the run to run delta panels that Bob Chill has been showing in the MA for the EPS, here is the most recent example: I think it's like the GEFS 48 hour forecast trend setting on Tropical Tidbits, but for the Euro. I think only Weatherbell has it since I can't find it on weathermodels. Actually, I see what you mean now. I will go back and edit the first post.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Firehose has geared up for the evening. The only question is where will it ultimately aim?
×
×
  • Create New...