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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interested to see if we can get some nice storms over the next couple of days. Seems like they have over-performed in the SE: I'm guessing nothing severe and really don't want that anyway after Saturday, but some plain old thunderstorms might be fun.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51070870 Article about how the Euro uses ultraviolet beams from a satellite to gauge wind speeds in the atmosphere.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's another thought too. I think we can all agree that the Pac jet as it comes off of Asia is pretty stout now, right? Well it should stay that way until the MJO interferes with it. Now, with those big ridges in the North Pac trying to develop, even as soon as now: You have to think they will mess with that energy as the jet drives it east and maybe even get trapped in unexpected ways by those ridges. You can see it with the Euro above as it buckles and shifts in the Arctic. The energy gets slung around even more as it is sheared away from the jet by the positive vorticity (500mb ridging):
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't think it's a head fake either. We have burned ever winter since I joined the forum though, so it's hard to like anything that starts delaying or pushing back a change. I think there may be two things going on regarding models. 1) The storm the MA people are talking about either this coming weekend or early next week was picked up on by ensembles at range as a smoothed out pattern that looked like it might be the long awaited change. Example, let's go back 5 days and look at the 12z EPS from Jan 7 If we were looking at that in the middle of the pattern models had been showing, we probably said something like: "Wow, that's different from what it's been showing, is it a blip or will it hold?" The EPS didn't do too bad spotting a possible storm window for somewhere in the east at that range. But now also notice where the EPS missed the mark bigly: a) cut off ridge in the EPO area rolling into NW Territories and Yukon and its corresponding trough in the Gulf of Alaska b)how big that Greenland/ N Atlantic ridging is showing up. It sorta kinda saw both, but the reality of a OP run is never smoothed and will always have bigger anomalies, for better or worse. 2) Maybe this 20th or so window was never a real pattern change, but just a storm window. There were some people in the MA talking about an Archambault event with this system. Maybe there is a big dog for the NE or Canadian maritimes that flips that Greenland ridging and then helps with the western ridging. I'd like to have the full gamut of blocking too, but I will take an EPO dominated pattern at this point. The really good looks that the models have been showing have always been after the 23rd or so anyway While I was writing this I went to look at a comparison of the 0z and 12z EPS today and TBH, they weren't that different. I think the Euro Op is spooking a lot of people this PM, me included, lol. Maybe it should? I also think this big cut off ridge in the arctic and associated troughs up there are messing with the models. What resources do the models have up there? This? Now don't get me wrong, the models obviously do a good job regardless, given what they are, but how many times have we said a cut off low is hard to predict and how many times has that panned out? Lots, I would say, and that is with the better resolution of GOES 16 and 17 at our latitudes. How much more difficult is it for them to correctly anticipate a cut off anticyclone with the above satellite data. I guess my point is, let's wait and see what happens with this big wobbly ridge as it dances across Canada and what it ultimately does. I also think Carver's makes a good point. Watch as the storms "break" in the Pac, the first one hits the Pac NW, the next couple hit British Columbia, and the the last one breaks in the Gulf of Alaska. The location where the waves stop and head more poleward regresses over time. I think that's the evolution we are going to se as an EPO dominant pattern tried to develop as the ensembles have been showing.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z EPS, looks like it has 2 distinct colder periods now, one around the 20 -23 and then a longer one after a brief moderation:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    A lot of ash being thrown into the atmosphere just N of MJO 4/5 regions from Taal in the Phillippines. Hope all the people are able to evacuate, but also wonder what impact if any this may have downstream. That's the most ash I've seen on a satellite: Looks like it is calming down a bit in the most recent images.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    @tnweathernut Found it: " .. am at the AGU meeting this week and I "snuck out" of my session to hear a talk on the Unified Forecasting System: Some highlights: Version 15.1 of the GFS officially became operational on June 12th of this year. It has a 13 km horizontal resolution and 64 layers. Data are assimilated at a 25 km resolution. Version 14 was retired on September 30. A minor change was made to the GFS in early November. It is now assimilating additional data sets including information from GOES-17. Version 12 of the GEFS is scheduled to become operational in August 2020. It will have the same dynamical core as version 15 of the GFS and its resolution will increase from 40- to 25-km and will include 31 members as opposed to the current 21. The system will be run 4 times per day with the 00 UT run being 35 days in length and the other runs 16 days in length. Apparently, the ensemble system has skill out to 10.4 days versus 9.8 for the current system with 2-3 hours of the additional skill due to the additional ensemble members. The next version of the GFS (version 16) is scheduled to become operational in January 2021. It is in the pre-operational stage now but has been frozen. It should have 127 levels compared to the current 64 and has bias fixes including (hopefully) one for the lower tropospheric cold -bias. Not sure what the fix is. Version 13 of the GEFS is scheduled to become operational in FY2023. It should be a "fully" coupled system that includes an ocean model, a wave model, an aerosol model etc. "
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    That part of the line that produced the tornado moved right over my neighborhood in Morgan County. I was gone, luckily nothing here except some large limbs down, but my wife was here and said it was pretty rough. TROWAL dog apparently tried to hide behind the toilet.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    @tnweathernut dallen or some similar handle in the MA forum had an update on the GEFS a few weeks ago. I think it is going to be upgraded in the fall to a larger ensemble # spread with an updated core. On a phone right now and can’t look for it, but that poster doesn’t post a ton so you may be able to find it. I think that person works on the models for NOAA.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Drove to Asheville this am. Got a pic of an almost lenticular cloud to the Lee of the Smokies. Got blown around a bit through the mountains.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not sure, weathermodels only has anomaly maps on the EPS, no EPS mean temp. I know the 6z GFS looked rough but A, it is the flip flop model and B, the old GEFS looked a lot better:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    The EPS still looking good, if not better for the dreaded 0z run: I would say even the Euro OP looked the best at the end of the run it has yet. If we reel this in, we are going to have to deal with a few cutters first.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Even the Ensemble mean likes that idea of a storm late in the run:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    In my defense, it was close, lol:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Well, look at what I posted after that, lol!
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    In my defense, it was close, lol:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the GFS is about to show a monster storm late in the run.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like there might even be some confluence over NE:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS looking pretty good once again. Will post when it finishes running.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS still looks pretty good though.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    One of the windiest nights I've experienced since I've moved to Morgan County. Will be interesting to see what happens Saturday. Would say some gusts up to 25 - 30 mph.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Didn't mean for this to be so fast, but I forgot to set the speed on the COD site. I wasn't going to post it, since I screwed up the speed, but vodka was mentioned, so....
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    @John1122 you are the winner on that run: I think that's 60 inches in like 36 hours, lol
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    For your enjoyment:
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