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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Lo, as I contemplated from atop my perch, I began to think of what it would be like: I also thought of state of the winter and my addled mind flew to the stratosphere and the tropics Somewhere around the Horn of Africa, I had a vision and my mind flew west: and despite the frustration of some, hope was sparked. So even as the monks marched up LeConte, singing a Requiem: I looked to the PNA for hope:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Jan 2019: Jan 2020: 2019/ 2020 SPV: Totally different, yet here we are again. I get it, the MJO and SPV aren't the only bus drivers, but you'd think there would be a different outcome, lol. I'm looking over the edge at Cliff Tops @mempho , for atmospheric hope. Still not jumping, but won't take much of a shove, lol.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    If anyone (like me) has a masochistic urge to go back and look at old Himawari 8 images for comparison, here ye go: https://seg-web.nict.go.jp/wsdb_osndisk/shareDirDownload/bDw2maKV?sI=D531106,D531107,TI,D531106m,D531107m,TIm,evm&sIt=data_im&lang=en
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think page 8 is when the Halloween-ish cold front came through and there was a bit of snow.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I meant it was quick when it finally happened is what I meant. Yeah, we agonized over it for a while.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap you mentioned Fall earlier. Looks like pages 6 - 9 of that thread are the ones where we started to see a possible change. I read through it and didn't get much out of it for use now, other than it seems to have come up pretty quickly toward the end of October. There was also some early talk of a typhoon recurving, but probably won't get anything like that now and not sure it helped that change in October based on how we discussed it at the time. You or others may be able to see more though, so I thought I'd give the page numbers to make looking for that change easier.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Bleaklies, as they say at southernwx. Make of them whatever you'd like. meh...
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Obviously wish it was at hour <120, rather than 300+, but still not a bad look for an ensemble mean: I do like that the EPS sees promise in that period too.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    GEFS looks pretty messy. Lots of cut off ridges and troughs: Looks like a couple of members may also see that storm, but no shortage of energy hitting Southern Cal.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Well, maybe not DGEX snowfall, lol, but still nice. I was thinking that second piece of energy was going to pop another storm.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy hour GFS about to do what some of the EPS members did. May be a DGEX type snowfall for someone.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    psuhoffman mentioned the EPS looked good to his southwest between days 10 -15,so I thought I'd have a look. Almost every single member shows a storm here between day 10 and 15. member 47 showed 2 , lol There were so many I had to make 3 gifs for them all. Every one of these is a different member, except one (member 47).
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy Times:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the full shebang. Looks Ninoish with chances to me. Of course it is still in that magical 10 day + window, but at least the OP was popping that Aleutian low now and what the EPS is showing looks to match up going forward from the end of the OP:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    No worries. I heard the beep on a post right as I was about to hit enter, lol. Yeah, the GFS storm (23 -26th ish) not so hot on the Euro, but I suspect the EPS tries to roll the ridging over Hudson's Bay, back to the west, but it will get less and less certain as it progs out in time (i.e. the anomalies will look less anomalous)
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro Op finally showing a stable Aleutian low. There's that at least. Sorry, should be more specific, it is showing it from hr 168 through the end.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Isotherm's forecast has been pretty good so far, might be a good time for a re read (bolding is my own): "January Alterations should begin to initiate across the Arctic domain as the month progresses onward, due in part to downward propagating easterly shear stress via the transitioning QBO. Poleward Pacific ridging tendencies are possible, and, a priori, these ridges may connect with developing Arctic geopotential heights to facilitate a stronger transport of polar/arctic air into the Rockies and Northern Plains. However, the momentum backdrop should be neutral to negative, and its distribution continuing to promote sub-tropical ridging. The resultant sensible weather should near to colder than normal temperatures in the N Rockies/N Plains/Upper Mid-west, and generally warmer than normal in the East/South. Snowfall departures, accordingly, should be below normal for most of the East outside of Northern New England. Central New England may see closer to normal snowfall in January due to increased jet suppression via spasmodic Pacific poleward ridging. Precipitation will be above normal in the OH Valley, interior Northeast, and Lakes, via an active SW-NE storm track. February Of the three meteorological winter months, February will differ most from the mean pattern. It is in this month that easterly shear stress will have a more significant effect on the AO and NAO domain, though mediated in significant part by anticipated, enhanced tropospheric receptivity to the genesis of blocking action centers. Higher than normal geopotential heights should dominate the Arctic domain, in concert with some North Pacific ridging. However, there will still be some persistence of SE US ridging via the angular momentum tendencies and backdrop. This should otherwise obviate would could have been very cold and snowy month on the East Coast. Nonetheless, the month should be the coldest and snowiest of the winter, compared to December and January. Still, the expectation is that these conditions will not be sufficient for many of the East Coast cities to reach their average snowfall for the season. Temperatures will be colder than normal across the northern tier and warmer than normal across the South, and near normal elsewhere. Snowfall will be near or above normal across most of the Lakes, OH Valley, Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic. There may still be a gradient across the Mid-Atlantic due to SE US ridging, thereby preventing much snowfall south of Washington DC." Sounds like it is on track so far. Started to see some hints of arctic ridging, but just not a ton yet. I'm not saying Isotherm is right in everything, (no meaningful mention of what we are seeing in the MJO/ tropics right now), but in terms of the general state of the atmosphere in the N Hemisphere, he's looking pretty good now.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I know they've tweaked it since they first released the Fv3, so I have to wonder if they tweaked the precip. output, since it was often showing 40 degree rains as snowfall last winter.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah John, I was just going through soundings for that system and it was doing that thing again where it shows rain, but the "best guess precip. type" was snow, at least for our locations.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    The EPS apparently sees it as being off the charts, lol:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, on 33 and rain, someone just posted a GWO/AAM diagram and showed that it was going into phases conducive to Nino type forcing...I think. I'll try to draw it here with the cpc's explanation diagram. The Green line is the GFS forecast, no clue where I could find a Euro version. But indeed, it looks like it should drive Nino type convection. Agree too, that BAMMwx bunch or whatever have been really messing with people lately.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Someone may have mentioned this earlier, but Bluewave had a good post earlier about the EPS backing off on the cold (I think you have to click "bluewave replied to a topic") to get to the post: That analogue map looks very much like what the EPS was showing in the extended. I don't rally know that much about AAM, so not sure exactly how that impacts us? Maybe extra momentum = stronger N. hemisphere jets and that pushes through attempts at ridging? It's like the ridge wants to build, but the Pac jet keeps blasting it any ridging east. Although even with that added momentum, the control still manages to pop storm at the end: Like Carver's said, maybe it's a hiccup and maybe it looks better tomorrow. Convection still looks hot in Jeff's erogenous zone:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe I'm wrong, but I want the GFS to have everything like 1000 miles south of us at range, lol. Gotta have room for the inevitable NW shift. I think we saw one go from Cuba to Michigan last year, over 10 days.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, these storms almost remind me of an MCS rolling through in the early morning in the summer.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy hour GFS manages to spit out some front end snow (maybe a few flurries at the start?) for this weekend system:
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