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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just for speculation, let's assume Raindance is right: "The patterns have been operating in repeat mode nationally at about a 3.5 month lag, so the H2 November storminess should come back about March, for two weeks. The 1/16 storm in New Mexico roughly corresponded timing wise to the 10/4 storm in New Mexico. The idea is 9/16-10/15 is roughly January, so 11/16-12/15 is roughly March." So that would put us at around October 6th's pattern as of now, if Raindance's approach pans out. Here's a quote form Jeff on Oct. 15 (not picking him for any reason other than it was a succinct summary of where we were at then): "Front parade continues. Looks like midweek and again early next week; warm in between." Sounds familiar, but with the difference that we are in January now. Looks like the Euro OP first showed the final push that flipped November around Oct. 18th, so that puts us 12 days (lol) from seeing a potential shake up, again, if Raindance's approach works. Now, interestingly enough, this big storm off the Canadian Maritimes, correlates almost perfectly if I extrapolate Raindance's approach, to Hurricane Lorenzo, a storm that started to shake up the hemisphere in October. Not going to spend a ton of time talking about it, because Cranky has a nice recap of Lorenzo and what it did: http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/lorenzo.htm His conclusions for the TL/Dr crowd: Visual of it: Sorry if I'm pushing cranky a lot today, but since the tropics aren't helping right now, gotta look north and up in the atmosphere and say what you will about him, he sticks to that sort of an approach.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I get the feeling now that maybe isotherm and raindance (who are questioning some of their conclusions because of how bad its been), may still turn out to be right for Feb. Hard to blame them for worsening their outlooks though, even if only slightly. Cranky's take is that if we can get the TPV uncoupled with the SPV and keep the N Hemisphere more "chaotic" we will have some of the same reprisals we had in late autumn. Otherwise there isn't going ot be a lot to shake it up, until we get a final strat warming, and by them it's probably too late for us. Of course all this, for everyone reading, is regarding the broader pattern. Not impossible with the wonky suppressed flow to get a surprise Upper low,.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not hardly any convection in the West Pac now, relative to recently: A flare up over Indonesia, which is obviously not great, but it isn't a big one yet. Although there is some still in the 6 region, it's south of the equator. Still some in the western Indian Ocean, but a little too far south as of now, I would say, to help the N Hemisphere: Crankyweather has been looking at the big storm over the Canadian Maritimes as a possibility to shake things up in the N. Hemsiphere and I agree, since there isn't much else for now. It's phasing with a piece of the TPV. It's pulling some ridging north, wish it was a little more meridional though. Will be interesting to see how things shake out after it starts to wind down. That storm might have done more to change things, but the big but failed EPO ridge that is sliding down into Canada is also forcing a new piece of TPV to take the place of the one that was over Baffin Bay, lol and guiding the ridging its pumping up further east. I don't know if you saw it or not @Carvers Gap but psu and isotherm had a discussion about MJO and base state resonance in the NYC subforum last evening. Interesting thoughts on why things are unfavorable.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's a weird pattern. Kind a like Space Invaders with pieces of energy shooting at warp speed across the country from a split flow.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe, but that western Indian Ocean also looks warm. And as Tellico has pointed out, not sure it wouldn't get pulled back to the MC as it's trying to do right now. I hope the western Indian Ocean fires up, near the horn of Africa.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Something else to think about after looking at the 18z GEFS. That storm that almost came together on the Euro at 12z, the GEFS had a few members that blew a N/ Stream wave through and amplified a wave on the front. The Euro has the two phasing, but even the Euro probably hasn't figured this one out at 5 days, given how fas the flow is right now. I would bet the northern one would arrive faster than the southern one, that is if the shortwaves even hold together and make it to us, lol. But it is on the table as a possibility in this desert of hope.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking at some of the images of La Nina's online, I'm not sure that is far enough west to make a difference, but interesting nonetheless.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Also of note while I'm on the recent developments kick: Current SS temps: 7 day change in those:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    One good thing about all this is that these systems are amplifying west of us right now and by the time they start to move out, they have picked up enough speed to not cause flooding. You may have pointed this out @Carvers Gap ,but some of those big surface highs are verifying. There's a 1044 in the Yukon and a 1044 over Lake Ontario.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    But after making all that I think I can see what's happening. You have had some attempts to create a - EPO ridge, but the vorts and all the energy aimed at the west coast of north America just keep shearing all that positive vorticity apart. A big storm pumps up a ridge at Alaska when it is the Aleutians and as that energy and warmth and ridging are transported north and up into the atmosphere, the huge SPV just starts to shear it apart and all it can do is roll SE and be pulled further that way by the TPV near Greenland. Rinse and repeat right now.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll be interested to see when and if this AAM burst or whatever it is dies off, how things start to develop. It really seemed to come out of nowhere. One day everything was looking up and then Ventirce/ BAMwx et al. were tweeting about it like crazy. I'm not sure what the predictability is with AAM, but you'd think someone would have seen that one coming. Just some food for thought too. Here is a composite from Snowy Hibbo's page of 500mb patterns when the AAM has been +1: Imagine that. An Aleutian low, a little N. Hemisphere blocking, and a STJ aimed at the southeast. Hmmmm believe I've seen that somewhere before..... I wish I had the Euro's take on this, but all I have are the CFS and GEFS: You'd think, according to the CPCs chart above, where we are at with the AAM/GWO whatever it is, would promote things like Dateline Convection and South American Convection, but I guess like Jeff said the Tropical Cyclone (Tino, I think) took all the good stuff away and said screw it, I'm headed to Tahiti. But wait a minute though, looks like Tino has now dissipated: what excitement will wait for us by the 3 AM Euro?
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was a little tongue in cheek in my post about the EPS, but if I'm honest about it, I did kind of like that look. Just hard to fulsomely buy anything right now past day 0, lol. If you actually had an H5 look like that, you'd have to think we'd have some sort of overrunning/ or Miller B scenario.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    IOD region seems to be flaring up again: Maybe one of those waves (ERWs?) triggering it since the convection seems to move from the E IO to the W IO? Slightly south of the equator, so may not have much of an impact. I'll take any flies in the ointment at this point. The convection in the western Pac, on the other hand, did briefly flare up today in the MJO 7 region as the TC departed SE, and north of the equator, but it looks to be weakening almost looks like it is backbuilding toward New Guinea and region 6, lol. MC looks relatively quiet for now, not saying it will stay that way though. In fact the Euro, as you'd expect from its RMM plots and Tellico's info, rebuilds it into the MC: But interestingly the Euro also builds some convection west from there, too: Of interest to me here is that Isotherm and Jeff have both said that as long as the convection is south of the equator, it has more of an impact on the S. hemisphere. If I'm misrepresenting what y'all said, apologies. Early on in the first gif of the Indian Ocean, there was a hint of some of the convection creeping north of the equator. The Euro OP, later in its run though, really tries to build it north of/ near the equator in what would be the MJO 1/2 region: (sorry for the speed of that gif, but it is what it is) Now in Isotherm's update he predicted the MJO to have little impact as it would stay mostly south of the equator: "1) The MJO intraseasonal passage is predominantly transporting its momentum along and south of the equator. Thus, whether the technical wave dissipates in phase 7 or phase 8 is largely immaterial from my standpoint. The momentum induction required to mediate North Hemispheric vicissitudes in polar night jet strength is simply not present. The transports yield a distorted MJO response with mid-latitude ridging; hence the Canadian height rises, and Atlantic ridging to the South of Greenland, but these features are not sufficiently poleward to induce significant polar, equatorward transport of airmasses. 2) Thus, while the MJO wave is anomalous, its effects are somewhat less than desirable in comparison to more bonafide northern hemispheric responses. Again, the directional propensity of the MJO is closely mirroring last winter's MJO passage [directed generally S - equator] through 8 in February, which yielded a rather distorted/quasi-improved response in the NHEM." Part of his response was I think in answer to the debate some have been having, not really here, but there have been some on 33 and rain who felt assured it would get to phase 8. Isotherm's answer: 5, 6, 7, or 8 it doesn't matter. But, if the Euro is right about the Indian Ocean, (and to be fair it is an OP at the end of its run, so we know how that goes, lol) that might actually have some sort of an impact. Just looking for something to add some umph to shake up what we have. I think what happened was that we actually had a short lived attempt to build a genuine -EPO, but the strengthening STJ from the AAM spike keeps decapitating the ridges that build there. Case in point: There have been and will be some attempts to build a - EPO (using the GFS just to illustrate the point, not to predict any certainty) I label them "Big Old Ridge Attempts" and there are 3 at least as depicted by the GFS over the next two weeks. But each time a -EPO tries to develop, it gets kicked out by these super stout filaments from the PV. So we get a nice cold shot or two, but nothing sticks. Look at the global AAM (may be part of the reason for the above), it is not just off the charts, but off the page, lol I may be wrong, but I'm guessing the scientist who made those plots never anticipated it getting this high? Not trying to say that if that drops it'll make the pattern better, since I have no clue how it works beyond as it has climbed, it seems the long range went splat. Maybe some of the fantasy looks will start to improve once that dwindles out a bit.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I put parts of the article (I think) Tellico is talking about, in the educational section a while back, mostly over my head, but thought others might want to dissect it.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I mean, if you look at the Z500 normalized anomaly and squint and pretend the 850 temp anomaly maps don't exist, it's almost promising.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's like the EPS is really trying to push the ridge into the west coast, but can't quite get there.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro somehow (and I don't have a clue how given it's recent runs) manages to create a Miller B that almost gets it done for higher elevations.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I've had trouble getting the links to post from Imgur though for some reason. I've tried to use it, but when I post a link it generates, I always just get the link.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    All is not lost @nrgjeff the Euro tries to give you some flurries with that vort dropping in late Monday night!!
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm actually kinda happy it is at least going to be cold for a bit. When I bought my house in Morgan County the previous owner left me like a year's worth of fire wood and I'd like to use it before the termites come out!
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I actually thought it was a little bit worse than his first take, lol.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Isotherm just updated his winter forecast. Not many changes, but though some might be interested.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think since fall 2018, but not sure.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro got a little nervous too near the edge of the COD last night:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap it saves them? Wow, thanks for looking I just assumed they got automatically deleted after a while. I was looking back in last year's thread and most of my gifs were unavailable.
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