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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    LeConte hit 12 this AM
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Same situation here. We hit 31 at about 6 AM, but when I looked out everything was still wet. About an hour later a nice thin crust of ice. We covered everything with some bed sheets and that seems to have done the trick.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z GFS for posterity: and EPS:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    It completely died before it made it to my place in Morgan County; I didn't even see a drop of rain. Some nice wind gusts as what was left came through, but that was it.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    This convective system looks pretty healthy to me, compared to the CAMs anyway: Good and sunny upstream too, between it and me, although beyond that I'm not too good at ready the mesoscale analysis pages for severe/ strong storm parameters. To me it looks like it will make a nice charge Paris -> Nashville -> Crossville -> Knoxville
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I know. I wish I could! I would appreciate even the cold and snow out there, if it meant things were back to normal. I'm sure now that there is a nice ridge over the SW, next year will be troughs again, lol. Some of my friends and I are going to try to do our own SW Trip in July, even though the college's trip is cancelled. We usually go through OK, but I want to see KS more, so will be heading through its underbelly. Like a Fayetteville, AR (friend lives there) to Wichita to Dodge City to Pueblo type route. OBS today = Pollen of Doom + some wind that reminds me of N Arizona. I don't know how things are down in the valley, but it has been rough with some wind (very minor) damage on the plateau
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Like y'all have been saying, it's been a "all day fire" kind of day up here in the plateau. Even though my usual trip to the SW is cancelled, today reminds me of some of the spring days above 6000' in the Southwest. Normally I'd be over it at this date, but the wood smoke smell makes it worth it!
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Got some pea sized hail with this line as it is coming through Morgan County
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    That plateau one is about to hammer me. Looks like it was bowing out a bit the last few NEXRAD frames
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry the above should say glad there's **NOT** a ton of sunshine.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z new HRRR4 or whatever it is now is throwing some sort (I say that because it has a little black swath overhead) of severe storm right over my head at 23 - 0z this evening. Also popping some CAPE and decent (300 -occasionally 400) helicity values in my neck of the woods. 14z old HRRR looks similar. Not sure it will make a difference, but glad there's a ton of sunshine in sight right now.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    There's a storm in N AL that's looking healthy.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    We hit about 30 and a couple of basil plants bit the dust, but surprisingly the tomatoes look good. This is the first year we've owned a house and this one came with a garden, so will be interested to see how all this does.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight Euro bringing winter back for the upper plateau and higher elevations next Wednesday if we can survive this weekend: Fair number of members on the EPS see the chance too.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah same here. Lucked out with some heavy rain to knock the pollen down though.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thanks Jeff and Calderon for the replies. McMinn, sorry about the outbreak word, I was probably too loose with that as far off as things are now. It is 2020 after all though, so my mind just went to worst case right away, lol. Yeah, hopefully something kills this threat Sunday AM, no one needs power outages and other major infrastructure problems right now.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    This Easter Sunday outbreak looks like it could be ugly to me on the Euro. I don't know very much about severe parameters or exactly how ugly, but as Webb's cyclone map that Windspeed posted says, one look at that is all I need. I am not a fan of storms moving SW -> NE with a strong upper low moving over the bootheel of Missouri, since that can send them right up the river valleys in East TN with a lot of shear. Most damaging storms I can remember have that motion. Looking at Pivotal soundings, still looks like most of the worst is S and SE of east TN, but all I'm going on is the "threat box" if that is what it is called, where it tells you the possible wx threats. Most soundings over middle E TN give a "Marginal Severe" result, with "Marginal Tornado" nearer Nashville, but near Chatt it is giving a tornado result, with storms moving up the TN river valley near the mts. Euro suggests that there could be a bigger line/ clusters of cells moving through first, and then more with a secondary line of discrete cells as the front moves through. What do y'all who know a lot more about severe weather think?
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Indeed. The people who owned my house before had one and there is still an electrical hook up for it, but alas, I didn't foresee our current situation so spent building a fence instead. I may check out home depot tomorrow (weekly run into town). More of an observation, but the air quality is night and day here in Morgan county when compared to my old place just under I40 in Knoxville!
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, if the N steam energy ends up verifying a bit faster and the southern bit across the SW slower, they could play together. As Windspeed's quote above says, I guess it's not out of realm of possibility that the northern might be quicker and the southern one gets hung up a bit. Beautiful pattern on the EPS too. Will be interesting to see if any EPS members get it done. Normally by this time of year I'm out of the snow zone, but would be kind of fun to have something besides COVID to chase on the interwebs. I'm fortunate enough to be able to work from home, so I say bring it on. That is until power goes out and all the food we have ferreted away have spoils... But I guess it would be fitting to finally get a good SE interior snowstorm, when it's harder to enjoy it.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Greyhound thought of you when I saw this video this AM Pretty high water at the end.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    For those who imbibe and are interested, Burial Beer in Asheville is now shipping to TN. The shipping cost isn't too bad ($14 for 70 bucks worth, cheaper than gas to drive there for me).
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just saw the sun. It still exists.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ok, thanks for letting me know. There was definitely some colder air moving in and I had seen something similar over KY Lake so wasn't sure.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some long rolling thunder with these showers as they roll through the plateau this morning.
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