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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Precip and 850 temps too nice not to share too sorry for multiple posts but trying to do all this from my phone now
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS still looking good and even a little east of the OP
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I saw that MRX overnight mentioned the WPC and hadn't looked at their maps yet: not unhappy with that look 5 days out.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS mean looks more like the OP overnight: A question I have looking at this mean, is will the Surface Low try to jump to or at least toward the coast? I don't really understand the dynamic between a surface low and its upper level support. Sure, give me a normal shortwave on satellite and I think I could ball park where the surface reflection would show up, but this seems like it will be a unique lil beastie. I have a gif saved of a storm whose 500mb vorticity evolution reminds me of this one, but I won't say it out loud. The energy looked stronger with that one and it all came together further south. The 6z GEFS is still a west of the Euro, but seems to be getting a little closer to its solution, especially in the means as the storm develops and heads NE:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Queen City posted this in the SE forum, but here are the EPS member surface lows over the course of the potential storm: It's hard to see, on my gif, but there are quite a few ~1000 mb and some sub 1000 mb lows to out SE on the 12z run. NAVGEM is, well, the NAVGEM, but it seems to show a compromise like the EPS mean: It really wants to cut, badly, but that N stream energy bullies it S and E and it turns into an inland runner. 18z GEFS is further east than the OP, likely it is splitting the difference between the two camps: And there are some members that cut the 500 mb energy off SE of us or at least push it east of us as the N stream energy rushes in and phases. I think a lot is going to depend on the speed and timing of the N stream energy as to how much latitude the S stream energy can gain before it passes our longitude. I think the N. Stream energy is over Kamchatka or Mongolia now.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS means: MSLP: 500mb: 850 temps: precip: whether any of this plays out or not, that was a pretty 12z EPS run
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie is almost there, but further W in its evolution (my access only goes out to 144 hrs)
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    After the Nov 30 - Dec 1 storm, the 12z GEFS haz a confuzelment regarding the cut off that the op has now lost:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'd also add that the EPS has a healthy number of members that see both windows (Nov 30 - Dec 1 and Dec 4 - 6), but many of those members see ways to make both or at least one storm, mostly rain. Still, one of the most interesting patterns I've seen since I've been on Americanwx. After the past couple of years, hard not to expect it all to disappear as we get within a few days.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    John covered the Nov 30 - Dec 1 storm, so I'm gonna look at the pattern after that for the oddball cutoff. Looks like the Euro is also trying to do that big ridge bridge at the end of its run: so it's op would probably support, after day 10, a similar cut off solution to what the GFS has been showing for a few days (yesterday's 18z run shown here, by popular request): Even the smoothed EPS mean has a pretty strong signal for over-the-top ridging:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    "Eall is earfoðlic eorþan rice, onwendeð wyrda gesceaft weoruld under heofonum." --Summary of model roulette. This is what happens when there are happy hour weenie runs and I have to replace plumbing all day. Lol.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    That is a beast of a storm the Euro is advertising in John's post above. Surface Pressure drops a little over 20 mb in 24 hours and our temps would really crash as the front came through. Even though it doesn't bomb out in a location to give us a ton of snow, I would love to watch it develop if it came it pass in the way the Euro shows. It would look at feel very wintery and just be fun to track. It looks like four pieces of energy ultimately phase over the course of several days: Each piece, as it rotates through, would produce some upslope enhancement for the typical areas. EPS members aren't loading on weathermodels, so I can't see how enthusiastic or not the members are. I wouldn't say the GEFS members are wildly supportive of the Euro's solution, but there are some similar hits. Timing seems to be the key, as it usually is with these big phasing storms, when the models see them 8 - 10 days out. But, here is a mean of the 3 major ensembles, GEFS, EPS, and GEPS: all show a ridge building in that time period across the Rockies, which would allow energy to drop in and pool somewhere in the OH Valley and/ or Great Lakes, it just a question of whether or not the pieces of energy catch each other and where they do that. Overnight Canadian model shows what could happen if all the timing is off.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting analysis of the NAO for TN:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS sees a window for eastern forum areas around Dec 1: GEFS has some southern lows too, at that time (sorry couldn't find its city charts on Weathermodels) I would still rate it at something like a 10% or less chance, but it is a window, at least for now. EDIT to add that I think this is the window John was talking about last night.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    One of those times I wish the GFS had just run about 48 more hours: I think it would have been an epic fantasy storm.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    A little Saturday surprise at the end of the 12z GFS today:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Frozen Head lookout tower, this AM https://imgur.com/a/mibN5oc
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ensembles past day 10 look pretty similar over NA this AM to what they have looked like the past few days. Really unique tilt to the ridge over the western US, at least as long as I've been looking at ensembles (not too many years). Kinda positively tilted. Using the CMC ensemble this AM since there weren't really any big changes to the GEFS or EPS.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Better than an endless SE ridge: I wholeheartedly embrace any and all upslope opportunities.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS member 16 at day 14 FTW:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    GEFS and EPS look pretty similar out in magical la la Land this AM. According to the GEFS we've hit the point where an airmass that is above average in Canada can = below average here. GEFS: EPS: all over 280 hours out in early Dec. Looks similar to what we kept seeing for the past 2 years at that time range. We will see if this year is any different.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I've been thinking about the past couple of days, goes back to the discussions of the wild fires and aerosols in the lower strat. Disregarding the whole talk of volcanic winter Masiello brought up a while back, I wonder if there will be some impact on MJO convection. I remember in 2018- 19 there was some talk of the SSW or split or whatever it was, forcing some cooler air towards the equator at in the 30mb and up range and that this might have helped fuel some of the convection over the dreaded Maritime Continent region. It was this post from Masiello that got me thinking about it: Convection over the Indian Ocean has been ok, the past couple of weeks and obviously tropical cyclones have also been healthy this year ,so not sure if there is a meaningful correlation.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting. It seemed like the last couple of years everything tended to set up west of where the long range ensembles showed it. Those nice -EPOs would end up being over the Bering strait instead of AK. If the same holds this year, the overnight EPS would look similar to the GEFS, in terms of the sort of 500 mb pattern we might like. 0z EPS: 6z GEFS:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think 2020 has beat the grump out of me. Smiling and redirecting punches is all I have left, lol. But I'm sure by Jan 28, if we are staring down a hr 240+ pattern change, I will find a grump recharge. Some of the usual suspects on wxtwitter suspects have already started the Ural high could = a SSW train. I can't really see anything that looks that promising, other than a displacement of cold and 50 mb heights over AK, the Bering Sea, and Siberia. So, pretty much what we saw last year with displacement that would ultimately end in a reconsolidated and stronger SPV. We will see how it goes this year.
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