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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not that I really trust everything that far out, but @Carvers Gap but it drops the trough in the west after that
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the Control might have had the good storm that the end of the OP promised. All I have are the upper level and 850 winds as of now though.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    What I'm hoping is nice about that particular prog. is that if the SPV is coupled, and pressure from heat fluxes and higher heights or whatever might have an easier time transferring down to the 500mb height than in some of the previous SSW/ splits
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Didn't quite go out far enough, but man, that one would have been pretty. Energy diving down the Rockies, ridging in AK and a crosspolar flow
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the Euro will deliver at the end of this run. (Yeah, yeah, I know, the end, but to be fair that one storm is now 6 - 7 days out, even though a rainer on this run for valley locations, it picked up on that one pretty early too).
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    looks like it was trying to go for a big Gulf storm after it ends at 144, as long as that energy diving down the Rockies doesn't get sucked back toward the Baja
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET looks pretty good through its whole run, esp. for NE TN and SW VA:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    And just like that, first thing I see when I log into twitter, the High Magister Masiello has spoken:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sticking to giphy for now: Looking good in the Eastern Indian Ocean:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Obed Winter sky
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sure, things change or fall apart, but I've decided I kinda like at least looking at the control alongside the EPS smoothed means, since it gives a concrete picture of where things might really go, to compare to the smoothed mean that has a 50 different possibilities figured in.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro had a new look for the SPV last night: GFS kind of looks like the Euro did yesterday: Last time there was a displacement this winter, Euro did better, but overall the GFS (at least as the Fv3) has better track record the past couple of years
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Check out the longwave pattern the control was going for in the longrange. Looks to me like its going for ridging into the EPO and NAO areas.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    @weathertree4u All that PV mess last night was more aimed at it looks more likely now that it has all season, BUUUUT, that's not saying much and doesn't mean it's gonna to happen.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Awesome!! One my way back to Morgan County, the temp was dropping os fast, there was fog above some of the fields once I got on the plateau. I'm still at 44, but dewpoint plummeting .
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Did he take all the links off permanently? Noticed I had to start typing "MJO dynamical models" into google to get the full MJO model suite mess, instead of just clicking on Ventrice's page. TBH couldn't remember if they were on his page or not, lol.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nope, only giphy, but I will figure out imgur, one day....
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    IMGUR still hates me and wants me to die apparently...
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Was actually about to post some gifs about it for the Euro, GFS, and GOES models, but my computer crapped out. Euro has enough of an umph to break off a little whirl of it: GFS wanting to elongate it: GOES has some disruptions, but not as much One of the things I noticed when we had the ensemble flop a while back was that the GFS was thinking about a split, but Euro reconsolidated it over Siberia and once the Euro saw that, that contributed to the flip.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    First one only went to 240 hrs, this one gets the whole run. GEFS seemed nice to me, just storms after storms, not all snow, but at least lots of chances.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Let me try that again:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap EPS (and a little extra at the end)
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