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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Weeklies for thy perusal:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    But on the bright side, looks like we get a consistent period of - NAO every 10 or so years in winter, so maybe we're due soon.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking at the dates, I guess one of the reasons I've always favored the EPO, is because I can't really remember a consistent -NAO since I've been following all this, lol. I was still just watching Henry Margusity videos in 9 - 10.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the best I got: Pretty shocking to see it flip almost every year recently to a + state around what looks like the first of Dec.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, I'm a little suspicious too, but the OP had triplets at the end of its run overnight: GFS shows fraternal twins, but quickly reconsolidates: Looks like most of it is form the bottom up too. If we can actually get the the point where it is stretched, will be interesting to see how all the extra ripples and turbulence play out.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the 18z Euro is kinda digging the NAM, except for its thermals: The precip type maps haven't populated yet for weathermodels, but looks more like rain out to hour 66.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's just the NAM and one run, but it's the best look for board wide possibility for many, all winter: N stream kind of squishes the vort, but plenty of time for changes for betrer or worse:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z NAM coming in north and more precip with the Wed morning system. Dry air though between 850 and 650mb. Definitely the furthest north it has been, we'll see if it holds together. 12z UK and Euro dissolve it over TN
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the 12z Euro strat:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the key for the Ensembles is how they deal with the ridging that sandwiches the SPV. Because everything is so coupled, when you have the -EPO and NAO ridging, it percolates up to affect the strat. You can see it here as the yellows and oranges that correlate to the NAO and EPO regins in the arctic: cross polar flow still there at the end, even more amplified as carvers said
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the Control will probably have a storm as the energy comes out of the SW:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ok, specifically, tell me what is unrealistic about what I've posted? We can bring this back to pattern speculation by looking at the details and critiquing the specifics of what I posted. I posted several maps that suggested the mid-week storm might over perform, but that the UKMET was on an island with how much precip it spit out as snow. I posted some maps that suggested the SPV was going to stretch out and possibly split. Jax was saying that the East Asian jet would retract, using a GEFS map of the eastern US for support. I see no evidence for that. Looks fairly stout to me on the Euro and GFS in east Asia. But Jax is much better with things like the East Asia rule and I respect him, so I saw no reason to contradict what he said. Maybe he sees something I don't.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    One of these days @weathertree4u Nashville will get a 12"+ storm again and when that happens I expect 6 months of optimism, minimum.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thus the discussion of the strat and to be fair the GEFS has just been knocking it out of the park so far. I think me and Jax were talking about totally different things. Also, the EPS looks totally different at that range. If you would prefer more negative takes for your morning reading, I can support that.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    @weathertree4u we have come full circle
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    In what way?
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    MRX not buying into the Wed. morning system yet, but it does get a: "Still much uncertainty with this one, so stay tuned."
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    From the guy who maintains the strat site that produces the 3D vortex:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I have given weathertree a confuse? It was a lot at once, sorry, lol.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Midweek UKMET: Euro not too far off: but a little too warm It's in NAM range now too: Some EPS ensemble support for north of 40 and elevations on teh plateau and NE TN/ SW VA: 6z GEFS: A Met over in the SE was saying earlier in the week not to sleep on this one, since the only thing keeping from being at least a little snow storm (2-4 type deal, my guess not the Met's) was that the vort was not holding together on models at range. Local news weather is not mentioning it at all and that is an important, but often overlooked component for us, (well at last for my superstitions, lol) Gotta have it something like this be a little sneaky, to maintain tradition. I know the Euro looked pretty rough at 240, but the EPS swings that trough through and even the OP wasn't too far from a big storm look, following an arctic front. As long as the energy doesn't get stuck in the southwest Euro still likes the strat stretch idea: 6z GEFS sees a split too. 0z GFS Op:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    So, looks like the Control has evolved to a full split?
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking back at the GFS it was also rather supportive of the 240 -60 hr time frame for an arctic front and a storm:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    And by that I mean supportive of a storm just after the end of the OP
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, I do like that the longwave pattern on the OP Euro at the end is continued by the EPS
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    To be optimistic though, the look at the end, isn't very far from the look at 240, so could just be a reload:
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