Holston_River_Rambler

From a purely deterministic model perspective, the 12z Euro continues to give us the Johnny Cash pattern. Although it reaaalllly tried to bring out the s/w in the southwest.

Since the long range 12z Euro decided it hates us and wants us to die (and at the risk of being accused of throwing spaghetti against a wall) I thought I'd try a bit of a deep dive this AM. Upstream tropical first: I hadn't looked at the convection in a while because we've had much more exciting stuff to look at the past week. But looking at the MC regions, it looks like there is still a lot of convection hung up there: In fact I would say the MJO 4/5/6 regions have the majority of the tropical convection across the globe: This is, I think, shown in the RMM plots with the data plotted in such a way as to stall it out again, for almost 5 days now: Sometime in the next week models seem to think convection will die out over the MC and we will get more overt he Western Hemisphere and especially Africa: Those are the BOMM, GEFS, and EPS evaluations of where the MJO is and where it may be going. Verification for GEFS at least (all I have access to) has been pretty good the past week, but it tried to kill it off too quickly in the 2 week period. (2 week verifictation on top): So I think is probably a good bet that at least so far as were can count on tropical convection, we may finally get to see what a nice clean pass through the more favorable phases looks like, at our climatological peak for winter weather. Does that guarantee anything, no, or course not, but I don't know that we've seen that progression in a while. But I have to think that the models seeing the tropics up stream of us as a little stagnant for now, has some implications for how they handle the downstream pattern. As far as any stratosphere stuff goes, I don't see anything that makes me think the SPV will be anything but strong and wound up in teh foreseeable future at the atmospheric levels available to me (10mb, 30mb, and 50mb), but here is a pretty gif: Don't really have time for more right now, but some reasons for optimism IMO even after whatever happens between Jan 6 - 11.

Greyhound

Ah yes the casual everyday -40 windchill

I know it isn't for our area, but the GFS drops the low that forms along the east Coast almost 20mb in 6 hours!

TPV dropping in a crushing everything to oblivion.

At least we have a nice arctic front at hour 234

I don't know I think I might get it done this time. No weird hung up messes over Baja: as long as that TPV orients just right

Already have light snow in the FL panhandle at 210.

Well, let's see what it does with the second system now. As of 200 hours it has a vort streak aimed at a shortwave over s. TX and the TPV lobe SW of Hudson's Bay

This freezing rain set up is a weird one to me. This isn't a traditional CAD high, but one sliding down from Manitoba SSE. If the high was anchored over New England, I'd say we wouldn't have to worry about much ice IMBY, but there is a lot of large scale confluence helping it hunker down towards us. Lol it transfers from Fentress county to Savannah.

Joy

Be interesting to see what the winter precip (sleet/ ice/ snow) look like.

Out to 138 and it's warmer from some areas

It's def. a bit north of 12z, but still some front end snow and ice.

That's certainly a snow mean for NE TN and SW VA and W NC lol:

6z GFS is a front end ice thump now for Jan 6, but the second system (Jan 9 - 11) is in the perfect place for a NW trend. 0z Euro looks fairly similar at the surface for the Jan 9 - 11 event. Looks like the 6z Euro is a little south for Jan 6, but more wound up so it gets more warm air in.

Shortwave kicks out of the southwest for the 1/9 - 11 storm potential window a little quicker too. Still a swing and a miss for that one for TN, but closer than 12z.

The Euro was pretty darn close to something big

I hope so, seems like it is running a little slow today on weatherbell. Here is the jan 6 system, but that's as far out as it is yet.

As John said, like as not a complete fantasy, but that 6z run of the GFS has prompted me to find this old gif:

Impressive that there is some thunder with what is rolling through the TN Valley and Kentucky right now.

If that shortwave doesn't get stuck and wound up over Baja, but instead kicks out, we would have the 12z Euro from yesterday or something like it.

What's wild to me is that there is a way for each storm to hit us, or none.