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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    That shakes up the areas where the SPV dips down toward the troposphere
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think it's a case by case basis. Because it has been so well coupled I think when it recently rolled back to Siberia, I think that helped promote the Hudson Bay Ridging, but could be wrong there. I'm also not sure exactly what mechanisms transport the displaced the cold air if there is a split. I do know we want something like what the GFS showed in the dynamic tropopause. Lots of poleward disruptions to kick swipes of energy of the pole and toward the mid latitudes.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it also goes for the SPV split again around 260 hr, but reconsolidates.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy hour doesn't give us much, but the GFS likes the idea of a mega EPO ridge late.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Member 26 is living the dream:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Saw some other folks posting the EPS members and sure enough, at least for now, they are downright enthusiastic, for the period above, especially considering how far out that is If you look really close, there's even one Chattanooga special in there, lol
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    CFS weekly for that period from 12z today looks pretty similar:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm down with that. Definitely not as healthy as it has looked most of this winter.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe everything is finally lined up to give us more confidence, lol. Or maybe we's about to get the old magic carpet ride:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Kinda matches the Euro and CFS weeklies too.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll be honest, I didn't see much of a split, but you may have access to other levels than me, I only have 50 and 10 mb: that is the 50 mb, and the 10 mb looks more consolidated.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    It could, or it might not, we've seen both. Euro was brewing up some weird storm at the end and although it runs the low right in the eastern valley, there was still quite a bit of energy carving out a trough into the gulf
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z GFS almost got it done:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro back down a bit overnight, but GFS still saw it getting attacked as of 0z:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I would guess so, but he could have thought I was just asking about why the RMM plots didn't show a 4, not necessarily about whether or not that convection has an impact.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I posted that satellite over at southernwx and asked what people thought. Eric Webb responded to me: "There's almost always convection over the Indo-pacific warmpool, satellite based IR doesn't tell really tell you anything. Plus, the upper level circulation signal tied to the convection hasn't been moving (it's quasi-stationary), thus it's not an MJO.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know exactly how the RMMs are calculated, but there is not much convection anywhere else, if I only had satellite, I'd say it was in 4 with an amplitude of 2 - 3.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not gonna lie, this made me look at the tropical satellite and it looks awful right now around the phase 4 area:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Fair enough But fire building (high 45, low 25) weather is all I've got to chase at this point, lol:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Although I will say the very end of the EPS looked familiar:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't think the overnight Euro looked too bad. If it's gonna dump the cold, gotta have a surge of warmth in front of it. SPV looked a little more consolidated on the Euro though. Flipping between the temp anomalies on the Euro between 10 and 50mb, looks like the warming is happening mostly at the top Even though some levels look consolidated, overall it looks to be under stress in the mid range:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, I had heard someone saying they looked bleak so that's why I went and looked, but I thought it wasn't that bad with the overall pattern. Unfortunately weathermodels only has the 5 day increments.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    850 temps:
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