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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I had some hope for a Bond or Heinrich event to screw up the N Atlantic, but now that it has been so cold there this winter, unlikely, lol.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yup. Some hope for a quicky before the trough dumps in the west, but otherwise it's fighting the flaming SER Balrog. And then there's this:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe instead of raindance's idea of a repeat, we are actually running in reverse and will get back to November's pattern in March. Looks familiar to me( 31 December's 12z EPS run, out to 360 hrs) today's 12z EPS Remember when we had that conversation about the N Hemisphere pattern locking up? lol.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Isotherm's latest update pretty much tosses the whole first half of Feb. Still, somehow, seems optimistic about late Feb and March.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Apologies to mempho, but taking a brief break from fighting the southeast ridge balrog as I plummet to the lake below Kazaduum. Not saying it will verify, but that GFS run looked a lot like last Feb: I will say if we want to see a strong attack on the SPV, having the pattern the OP GFS depicted at 12z is a good way to get it started from the Atlantic side.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm in the middle of an epic battle with the southeast ridge as I fall, but I can say that the Euro kinda likes the triplets idea again @Carvers Gap
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Shhhhh @Carvers Gap it is all part of the plan, lol I didn't see that earlier, lol.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Deer Whisperer "Thus is our treaty written; thus is agreement made. Thought is the arrow of time; memory never fades. What was asked is given; the price is paid."
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Deer Whisperer tis a sign. The 0z Euro this AM had the SPV split into triplets, but the 12z (after only one formal sacrifice offer) had more of a consolidated SPV: Three are needed and three must go!
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    It must happen soon. Lo, even the Mac has come to join us. The end times are surely here!
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I have offered myself @mempho to @WxWatcher007. You must assist in the ritual.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Somewhat encouraged by the nW drift this PM of convection in the 2/3 zone: The 4/5 isn't as bad as it looks on the above, but it ain't great either
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    some similarities, mayhaps:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    happy times! for exactly 6 hours no less!
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Strat is ugly this PM. Euro had a big consolidated purple blob at day 10 and the gfs too at day 15. Both show disruptions in the day 6-7 range, but reconsolidation after that.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    We kind of saw something like this earlier in the winter: Sorry for the arrows (they were originally for when I used this early in the season) but you can see a similar dance at the pole in the first few frames. This is from when there was talk about a flip at the end of December, but the attack just pushed it back to Greenland and we got the +NAO
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    As I understand it right now (subject to change ad I learn more) the dynamic tropopause shows places where the stratospheric polar vortex dips down into the troposphere. So in this example, you can see a bit of subtropical something or other being deflected poleward and disrupting what I see as the main TPV. Heres how that would translate to a potential -AO at 500 mb. (sorry for the backwards and forward, but wanted to make sure I captured the interaction in the gif) Just using the GFS for an example and because I don't have the Euro's dynamic tropopause content.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not sure I know enough about the terminology to know the difference, lol. The talking wxtwitter heads are calling it a "wave two" disruption and using jet maps and dynamic tropopause images, so I'm guessing its a bottom up kind of thing with storms slinging energy poleward and upward. But this is a good mission for me today and would like to try and figure it out.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Indian Ocean is purt near lit this AM too
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting to me to see how it all kind offsets as you get lower in the atmosphere.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's how the "triplets" idea translates from 10 mb to 50 mb, to 100 mb, to 500 mb:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro is back to its triplet idea with the SPV while the GFS is still wavering. I think something is definitely going to happen to disrupt the SPV in abut 6 - 7 days, but how that plays out afterwards, hard to say. Most likely outcome would be reconsolidating, based on persistence, but not guaranteed.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Are the meteorological end times upon us yet?
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