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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z EPS says the battle of wits has begun! Control looks like it still likes the trough idea.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    And check out the -AO on the GFS. I know it is the fantasy GFS, but seems like forever since we've seen something like this even in fantasy range. EPOs, yeah, we've seen em and watched em dissappear, same with NAOs, but AOs this winter, not so much, even waaayyyy out in time. I was wondering if the strat had anything to do with it and at 10mb, not so much, but it is drifting south, towards Canada at that height. Now, at 50 mb, there is much more wobbling and disruption. I wonder if what we see here is a situation where the strat is too strong to split, but the descending QBO allows upper ridging that would normally split it, to push it south toward Canada? That also creates, in the GFS's fantasy realm for sure, an interesting wind configuration at 100 mb, just above the jet stream level:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET tries to give soem lovin' to E Arkansas and NW TN today, but according to snow maps, can't quite get it done. I think if it plays out that way, there will be ye olden trowel feature and it will all depend on where that sets up.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS has done better the past two years, but this year's SPV is a beast.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap Strat got interesting overnight after a few bland runs: Euro (sadly only out to ten days): Yeah it does reconsolidate n the Euro, but that is the first time this season I've seen the Euro do anything like a split at the 10 mb level. Before it only made it up to 50 mb. GFS: shows how that reconsolidation could be like a rubber band being stretched. Once you stretch it out, even if it temporarily returns to its original shape, there's still built up momentum that has to be worked out
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    The more I think about it this year, I wonder if these long range flip flops are due to how strong the SPV is and how well coupled it has been. It's like have a single cyclone determining the N Hemisphere pattern. Any little change affects everything.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    0z GEFS kinda bit on that look too.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    In more critical news, would be nice to see a EPS spaghetti plot to see if that is just a washed out with a variety of solutions, or if that sort of bland, general trough over North America is what many members see.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Long range pattern is like a Venus fly trip this year, and we are the fly, lol. It has decided we are getting wise to its tricks, so it must sweeten the nectar to draw us back in: We have to double reverse psychologize the pattern by acting uninterested, lol:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the 500 mb pattern for that Ice Storm in Jan 1951, from NCEP reanalysis:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z GFS on board too, but later in the run.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Congrats to all on y'alls side of the mountains today! If I didn't have a meeting today, I'd already be on the road to Waynesville for lunch at Boojum Brewery, lol.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some of that is trying to get over the mts too:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like snow line is at 2400' in western NC right now. Man, if I didn't have anything else to do today, lol...
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it is about 3500 feet. If I still lived in Knoxville, might be a good day to see where the snow line is on LeConte.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    So close, yet so far away: https://ncbroker.com/webcam/
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Somehow missed this yesterday. Awesome! Thank you!
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    0z EPS looked like it might have been trying to lift the trough out of the southwest at the very end, but TBH it's at like hour 340 something, so we'll see what happens at 12z. The 0z GEFS looks very, very similar and both have us at or slightly below normal with 850 temps.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    And of course that one started a new page so it would be hard to look at the second gif in my previous post, lol
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAO region was pretty ugly until Feb 13 or 14. Storms ran though the TN and Ohio Valley until one cranked up some ridging and pulled the TPV down towards Hudson's Bay. It retreated back to the Beaufort Sea pretty quickly after that. @Carvers Gap if you watch the second gif, it actually has an upper low take something like that weird track. This one goes from Boise to Portland, to off the CA coast and then back, lol. Looks like a pretty strong Pac jet blasting BC even through March 6th. Looking at the whole N Hemisphere, it looks like changes started in the AO domain around Feb 24 and you ended up with a parent TPV over Greenland and a baby over the Sea of Okhutsk. This allows some impressive HP to build north of Alaska: (sorry for the flashes, but the system that produces those maps is a little slow)
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think I'm turning into a little JB, lol. I may do this every year, but maybe worth looking at for hope, far flung as it may be: Was going to try to offer some analysis, but dogs are clawing at me to go throw the ball before dinner. Maybe inspiration will hit after one of those 10% ers, lol!
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    My take. Not meant to be at odds with Carver's above. Was actually thinking about this today and saw that he went for a projection, so thought I'd throw one out there. Besides I was cheated of my sacrifice (apparently my long lost brother Houston met his end) and subsequent plan to come back like Gandalf the white, so I guess I'm still here... Trough dumps out west as depicted SE ridge verifies more amplified. Warmth and rumors of heat. Downsloping, maybe Greene county hits 80 once. Series of impulses ride the southern jet. We rain. Each disturbance amplifies as it moves north, cranking the SE and W Atlantic ridges up and one of these impulses, if it really gets going over the Canadian maritimes, aims a nice shot at the PV. Now, Masiello (not in his normal forecasting mode, but in his observation mode) has pointed out that the SPV has taken a shot every month this winter around the 20th. If this times out just right we get what we've been missing: the hammer and the anvil. N Atlantic/ Scandy ridge AND Northern Pac ridging puts the hurt on and splits the SPV. Model mayhem. Cold dumps somewhere and hopefully, following this winter's pattern, it dumps in Canada and comes south, just as the MJO finishes a tour of 4/5/6. Big westerly wind burst again and +AAM. QBO is at its lowpoint of the winter and we finally get some blocking to show up on modeling. Because of the uncertainty after a SPV split, I'll leave this one at this point in time.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Bleaklies. At least for once they give no hope, and maybe that is a sign things are about to turn:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Been watching the satellites pretty regularly this winter and I have to say, this is about as bad as it has looked:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    sad.
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