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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    A friend of mine and I were sitting in my office and he brought up the great Harriman flood of the emory river in March 1929. Thought I'd look at NCEP for upper air similarities: March 1929:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    and the run wasn't even over yet, lol:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    That one SREF member for the win:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing about the overnight ensembles, even if the 500 mb pattern mean doesn't look great, we have all the cold air on our side of the globe, any shake up to the pattern will hopefully drop it down in the CONUS, can we keep it out of the west though? GEFS and EPS 850 temps:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Further afield, in the magical tropical lands, looks like a cyclone has stolen our convection in the western Indian Ocean, but some of the convection in the eastern Indian Ocean is rolling west. Maybe one of those equatorial Rossby waves? Still not sure what is what. Still kinda scattered in the West Pac, but at least some convection in the 7ish maybe 8 areas? GFS still likes the idea of at least a displacement of the SPV toward us for once:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM still NAMifying this AM with the Thursday wave: Really interested to se if the radar actually looks like what the NAM has been showing for a few days for the Thursday wave when all that precip just materializes to the west of us. NAM kind of looks like the UKMET with the Saturday thing now: Like John said the Euro did flop on the Saturday storm, but the energy is still there, just favoring the more suppressed solutions the EPS had been offering. TBH I'd rather have it looking a little weak and suppressed. sheared at this range, so at least we have some wiggle room for it not to go north as it verifies a little NW as stronger than modeled. Absolutely no guarantees too doesn't verify as a washed out, weak wave, but at least it has room to improve now. EPS, according to Bob Chill when Ji in the MA forum was panicking about the 18z EPS last night, usually follows the OP at this shorter range, so not unexpected to see it back off some, but it still looks as good as it did yesterday at 0z, but not quite as good as it did yesterday at 12z: Knoxville snow hole in effect again, and don't even ask about Chattanooga or Memphis.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM keeps doing NAM things. A sub 995 low over Cloumbia, SC ain't nothing to sneeze at: To paraphrase a Met from the MA forum, "now if we can just get one of the good models to follow suite..."
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy hour also delivers on the strat:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Steady uptick on the mean over the last 5 runs, with Knoxville snow hole in effect:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    GEFS looks fairly steady too:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    It forgot to get a running start to help it cut, lol!
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    oooh 18z GFS gets the purple colors into Cumberland county:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm superstitious and it makes me nervous when news outlets latch on this far out. Gotta sneak up for full effect.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Check out how the 3k NAM sees the 3rd wave going down: Looks to me like it wants to keep the upper low back long enough to allow some return flow after the front:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just saw the EPS posted in the mountains and foothills over in the SE forum. It has upped the ante: best look I feel like we've seen all year
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Going with the Feb. 1795 analogue for this week: Flooding rains to snow in Middle TN
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    1795, Andre Michaux gets the old rain to snow, just north of Nashville:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro, Euro, come getcha Euro, get it while its hot:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I agree, it's everywhere right now and that's why we have the COD. I just think the GFS goes a little bonkers with cyclones in 6, so it amps it up too high. But TCs are hard to predict, so I guess it is a wait and see game for that one as of now. In brighter news the Euro looks to come in good this PM for the 3rd wave thingy and Saturday.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking at the GFS satellite predictions, I think one thing the GFS is doing with the MJO is popping some cyclones in the south Pac ITCZ. We started with some good convection in the 7/8 regions, but all of it got eaten up in TC Tino, and that led to the +AAM, westerly wind burst, and big run through 6 earlier. Euro still has convection in those areas, but maybe not as active with TCs (sorry for the bouncies)
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I almost extrapolated it's energy at hour 84 too, lol. It was further south and west than the Euro with it driving down the Rockies and probably would have given us a proper NAMing for the 9th storm.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I always forget to look at the UKMET, lol. It gives a different evolution for the 9th:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thanks. For some reason every other variable populates on weathermodels for the 6z Euro before precip. The NAM is popping a surface low stronger, earlier, and further east, so probably why it gives us that little stripe of anafrontal snow. IMO that could be something the NAM would pick up on first, or could be overamping due to convection.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's going to be interesting to see how the precip. maps come out for the 6z Euro, at least for the 7th event that has NAM'd us. It looks similar at 500 mb to the NAM, but is a little further west with its surface low.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it even went for a little bit of anafrontal too at 6z: OH BOY!!! first NAMing in two months!!!!
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