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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    And to be fair to the oft maligned CFS, the Euro weeklies show a similar progression, but less amplified and one that starts further out in time. Let's not forget last year either, when the Euro weeklies had their tail(s)? handed to em by the CFS weeklies.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    And while we're looking at the CFS, might as well check out why it does that: Looks like it drops the SPV towards sea of Okhutsk/ Aleutians, by then splits it and a part drops into Hudson's Bay. Again, I don't necessarily have faith in any particular CFS solution, more of an experiment this time since I wish I had done it when the CFS was showing the current pattern at a long lead.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ok, so no one will probably believe me on this, and I don't blame you, but the CFS, three weeks ago, was already showing this trough in the SW pattern. I think it was even back when it was showing the MJO doing the big loop through 8 and 1. I remember because it looked weird to me that it would drop a trough there with that MJO progression. I wish I had taken a gif of it then, just to go back as see if it did ok with the overall pattern idea. In no way talking specific storms at 700 hour leads, but if nothing else a western ridge would keep us from being on the right entrance region of a sub tropical jet and keep the flooding at bay: Above image is the CFS pattern change
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting study in low level wind, upslope, and downslope in the microclimates of east TN overnight:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hurricane PV: Euro 10hPa wind forecast, days 7 - 10
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    C'mon trough, swing east and dry us out: All ensembles have been doing this for a couple of days. Euro most insistent that the EPO is still bad, but even it is relenting on the PNA enough to hopefully dry us out. The base pattern has to change eventually anyway, right? If we flipped to this mess in early December, maybe we flip at the first of March?
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's that sun angle
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Got some wet snow or sleet with this band moving off the plateau now.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    To add to what Jax was saying, Euro this AM is aiming the RMM toward more favorable phases, but would like to see more consistency:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's made it to Colonial Heights at I 81 intersection
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think a little bit of vorticity at 850 got sucked up the valley by the larger one to the north. You can kid of see it on the satellite and the Euro showed it at 0z, but pushed it into the mountains. Some of those peaks are above 850, so maybe the vort got channeled up the valley:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here it comes up 81: Near the 26/81 interchange
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like some back building to about 11W:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Clearing to the west, but fog building into the ridge tops in Morgan county now, maybe some warm air aloft moving over the snow cover up there? I think JC sees some snow, if only a little, and maybe even Bristol
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Finally hit it near whites creek just south of Rockwood https://giphy.com/gifs/QvBK7LiFXYb1kQcHuK
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Can't take it anymore, heading off the plateau down toward Dayton.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Heavier band starting to develop aimed at Loudon:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it has made it to Gatlinburg too.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    It has made it as far west as MM 359 on 40. I'm hoping to see a flurry here, but suspect the best moisture will stay east. Shortwave looks healthy for Knoxville and esp. areas south
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's made it to Maryville now:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Winter wonderland near Monteagle and Sewanee now.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Seeing some snow fall on TDOT cams near Lenoir City.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Glad y'all are getting some lovin!
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Check out near Manchester TN:
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