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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    This one almost meets the definition of a bomb cyclone according to the NAM and RGEM, goes from 993 to 969 in 20 hours. Should be a dynamic system.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Obed Flooding at the confluence of the little Emory: Judge Branch coming off of Frozen Head: Highway 62 at the Emory River:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    3km NAM looks fun for the duration of its run: Keep in mind, some of the snow early on is not the normal wrap around upslope, it is driven by an upper low and the strengthening surface low to the lee of the Apps.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hearing reports that parts of Highway 27 in Roane/ Morgan county are under water now.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Indeed. as always credit to @PowellVolz for bringing this, the greatest of all gifs, to my attention. Also, feel free to deny everything if I get in trouble for this, lol.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    At second glance Euro actually looks close to cluster 4 at day 10, so I guess me might be closer than we think. But we gotta remember how bad this base state has been this year too. Doesn't mean it can't change, but whatever can go wrong at range this year, usually has.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Judah Cohen, despite all his hype and attempts to use twitter for a variety of ends, shared some research yesterday that is helpful: The projected displacement puts us in cluster 2 and at least gets us close to cluster 4 which would be ideal. I'd like to see all this within like 3 days at this point, but all models are at least consistent showing that it will get displaced our way. That seems more reasonable than a split with how strong this SPV has been and probably the best we can hope for. No clue how quick it would respond for us, even if we get the best case scenario, but at least the cold air is on our side of the globe for once at high latitudes, so we could be getting a lot worse looks at long range right now. Even the cluster 2 and EPS over night look zonal and would get us out of this flood pattern.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Downtown Sunbright from 8 hours ago. from Morgan County today facebook page:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Secondary disruption of the SPV finally starting to get into Euro range: GFS still has it too and now looks similar to the Euro with a displacement to the south:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro backed off on the rain totals overnight, but not by too much:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Top of the line rolling through now. Sounds like a tropical downpour. More vivid lightning https://giphy.com/gifs/XdD1lHWteTEi6MPD0B
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wow. In only 27 hours... looks like 6-7 in the southern, eastern great valley this is one heck of a system.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Apparently you have to have a special camera to catch lightning. I had my phone set up and got a super vivid flash and this was all it took: All you can see is a little bit of light through the trees, and you better be in a dark room, lol
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, first edge of that mess is hitting me now. Heaviest rain of the day and lightning now.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    This looks pleasant:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro looks a little better for the middle TN and E KY folks for Thursday:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z GEFS has a nearly 13" MEAN lollipop in SW NC:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hard to believe, but here we are.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro precip projections. Up close and personal: EPS city plots:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    at least the NAM still looks nice for the third wave deformation zone or whatever it is: heck Nashville is looking better than me: the Saturday storm has fizzled now across most reliable models.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    front yard, day 1: several creeks crossing the roads in my area of Morgan county (Mossy Grove)
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    If you thought the GFS was bad at 15 days with flooding potential, wait till you see what the Euro has by day 10
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    My grandad was a principle in Scott county schools at that time.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    A friend of mine and I were sitting in my office and he brought up the great Harriman flood of the emory river in March 1929. Thought I'd look at NCEP for upper air similarities: March 1929:
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