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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS overnight got a little more robust with its trough that rolls through late month Maybe even some hint of a ridge trying to push into AK Control has that:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like some healthy convection in 6/7 and maybe even some 8:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is what @Carvers Gap was talking about for those interested, strat. temps at 10 and 50 mb. Highest anomalies are at 10 mb. That's a good warming, and I think the warmest it's shown all season, but the wind field is still pretty consolidated:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry, was ninja'd by Carvers as I was contemplating looking at the CFS on pivatol, lol
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sometimes I like to look at the EPS normalized anomalies, since they usually look better, lol: Looks like it may at least be trying to push some of the cold out of AK later in the run:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    It could, but it is how we got a little snow in December, so I'm down.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    My punishment today for poking that bear:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, @nrgjeff kind of wish I hadn't brought it up now. I think I was so used to seeing the MA folks troll each other over it, that when I saw it I couldn't resist poking the bear a little bit, so to speak. I will say in our defense though, there were a few attempts to try and figure out if they were talking about the general sun angle of the time of year, or if it was more of a "it'll melt quick when the sun comes out" approach. Also, if any of y'all at MRX are reading this, apologies, and please continue the forecast discussions, I love reading them. Last year a met in the SE forum mentioned there was talk of discontinuing them.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Amazon is watching me, lol:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's what that above 500 mb pattern on the Euro Control translates to on the surface, just showing for an option for the Euro past day 10: Not particularly dry, but storms move in and out and the firehose is cut off as upper winds realign a bit.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro control shows some troughs making it through past day 10: and the OP dries us out from Thursday AM through next Tuesday, so some good news there.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm starting to think it's just gonna wind down over spring. It has dominated every single attack on it. GFS showing yet another result this AM, rolling it back toward eastern Siberia: 100, 50, and 10 mb winds at day 15. You can see some of the attacks on it in the 3D vortex graphics, but nothing really makes it above the lowest levels.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah I think I it’s just going to depend on where the firehouse sets up. It was showing 6+ in some places south and west. Not a guarantee, but I’d say there is a potential to overperform
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS means of 7.5- 8 inches back in N Alabama:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, what John said.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Well, maybe I spoke too soon:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    TBH though, this is kind of what the TPV has been doing all winter though. It gets kicked out of AK, then rolls overhead, we get a shot at winter as it rolls by and parks over Greenland, only to see it rotate over the top and back to AK.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro wants to park the TPV over Alaska, but I could also see a situation where it is kicking energy out and is about to drop the TPV more toward the Aleutians: At least it kicks enough of a trough through to shut of the spigot.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it finally did, it is really trying to creep it toward the better phases
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe we can get some blocking going, (but better placed this time) again if the WWB verifies and adds some momentum:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sun angle is brutal
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Revising my first chapter this AM and looked at it and the first freakin thing I saw was some note about using La Nina patterns to argue for an increase in tornados around the same time a religious revolution seems to have happened in and around Cahokia.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I remember some rain to snow type situations in 94, but I was in Kingsport at the time, so may have been spared the worst of the ice.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    You know you're a weather nerd when you are writing a dissertation about Native Americans and European colonialism in the southeast, but this is your first footnote: Well maybe a late antiquity nerd too, lol.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    And finally, my knee hurt and woke me up at 2AM, a sure sign a pattern change is incoming in approx. 2 weeks. Only 2/5ths joking.
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