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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z GFS is trying to play ball:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think I found the site: https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/tgstatus/ " NOUS42 KWNO 141334 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1331Z FRI FEB 14 2020 The 12Z NAM started on time with 14 Alaskan...27 Canadian... 70 CONUS...14 Mexican...11 Caribbean...and 9 Pacific stations available for ingest. 12Z NAM RAOB RECAP... 72240/LCH - No report for the NAM. 70414/SYA - Missing Part TTBB. 72214/TAE - 10159. CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS... NCEP does not anticipate a CWD during the next 3 days."
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    One of my model pages had a notice about it earlier this AM, but can't find it now, so maybe its fixed?
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Jon Wall on twitter (also on southernwx), posted a really nice trend showing why the Euro had backed off, but the 6z Euro seems to have gone teh otehr way now, so hopefully we are back in business at 12z 12z NAM looks similar
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    OP Euro went for the suppressed/ held back energy overnight, but still several EPS members that get moisture back into the TN valley. 6z GEFS meanwhile has its best looks yet (give the gif a few seconds to start)
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Same old, same old. Trough out west, ridge east,
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Don't want to put words in Mr Bob's mouth, but I think he was pointing out the weeklies look nice the next two weeks:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I a video meeting with people in Cumberland county and hearing reports of snow there. In Roane county right now and chilly drizzle.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    ILMRoss a met in the SE thread has a good breakdown of the Euro, if interested.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    IMO that jet look is more believable than having a bowling ball at this range, since our current pattern has been conducive to that sort of a jet
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    One of the things that really cool about the OPs look is that it has us on the right entrance region of a jet, just like it has for all these heavy rain events recently: get that mega high and those dynamics. yum.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    beyond the 21 - 23 time frame, GEFS and EPS looking good and somewhat similar: GEPS though, wants nothing to do with the Davis straight ridging so dumps the trough in the west again at the end of its run. It does look similar before that.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    A little hesitant to post one EPS member, but 28 does a good job illustrating what a NW jump on the OP could do for even Chatt:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    CMC not bad either, for general look:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight Euro was interesting for the 21 - 23: still a ways off to be talking about NW trends, but not a bad look overnight considering the consistency of the system on models. select cities from 0z EPS Won't post all the overnight EPS surface plots like I did a few weeks ago, since that storm dissolved after that, but looking in the 7 - 10 day range, really nice looks on almost all members. Most of the misses are suppressed and not north/ rain. 6z GEFS has a warmer solution for about 50% of its members and the 6z GFS is suppressed/ holds energy back too long. One theme though is that a nice high is showing up, 1045 (GFS) - 1048 (EURO)
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Man, if it had been March 1, talk about coming in like a lion!
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Line of storms looks pretty healthy, already some lightning up here in the plateau.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z GEFS looks like a really nice evolution again: several good hits on the GEFS for the 21 - 23rd, even though the OP was a bit held back in the SW and suppressed.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's still low to mid 40s here. I was kinda surprised and thought I'd warm up as I drove home up the plateau. Crossville is 10 degrees warmer though.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS this PM definitely looks different, no normalized anomalies need for me today, lol:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS member 40 for your viewing pleasure
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS definitely has some support for the 21 - 23 time frame
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Perhaps this is the long awaited November pattern return.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy Times:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro kinda has the same system the 6z GFS has (and has had off an on), but is holding energy back in the SW. 0z Euro 6z GFS 0z Euro 6z GFS
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