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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    the NAM at range looks like it wants to bring the whole shebang out of TX wit ha 1044 parent high nosing down:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    0z Euro OP looks north for especially the second wave, even some snow into VA, though that could be from a N. steam shortwave trying to hook up with the energy ejecting out of TX:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is the best I have from weathermodels, MSLP: 18z: VS 6z
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hopefully the southernwx folks won't kill me for stealing these pics, but I don't have access on weathermodels for 18z EPS to more than basic maps. EDIT: sorry just realized that this is the control only. The mean does look better though.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll see if I can find some pics, but apparently the EPS and control at 18z looked a lot better for the post frontal deal later this week.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Also interesting to see how the Control progresses the flow after the giant cutter the OP is starting to show (and the EPS is dead set on). Looks like it opens the gates of the arctic:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Tropical convection looking a lot like it did about a month ago. Winding up and aiming southeast. Today (sorry no gif, Himawari was acting weird, flickering in and out): Last month: That added +AAM and resulted in: (loop from Jan 24 - 28) Sorry for the speed, more meant to show the Hudson's Bay block. Some similarities on today's EPS, at least through hr 270:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Up in Kingsport right now so no pics, but the UKMET looked a tick better with a wave that rides right after the mid week front drops through, but still suppressed after that
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Further out in time, the Euro Control and EPS, suggest what looks to me like an odd/ blocky pattern, : GEFS and GEPS have something similar: I can't tell if that is a good look, or if it would just give us a bunch of cold/ rainy cutoffs?
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    OP Euro didn't necessarily get any worse overnight for the 21 - 23 system. Still south, but even a little bit more north from yesterday. I'll wait for the NAM to nail the coffin. It also suggests that there could be a Gulf low late in the run. Could be one to watch as the EPS is pushing another western/TX trough just after hour 240. And it seems to me if one fizzles out, sometimes a second one can surprise, JMO. At least either way we dry out for a while.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    You severe folks can correct me, but this looks to me like it has severe potential written all over it:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    No worries I see what you mean now
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sure and I agree. I think he would too. He was calling for more high lat. blocking this feb and that has yet to materialize in a meaningful way.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap re: the NAO discussion on the last page, if you go to Isotherm's blog/ page 50, he actually breaksdown his method. 09 - 10, he called for a +NAO: source (def. worth a read and something I will bookmark and revisit): https://www.lightinthestorm.com/page/50
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy hour agrees:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just eyeballing some of the other years outside of my image above, it looks like October is a pretty good gauge. I wonder if that is why many of the winter outlooks don't come out until early November. Remember last year (18 - 19) when Isotherm predicted a predominantly negative NAO: source: https://www.lightinthestorm.com/page/3 Coincidence that 1950 is when the CPC begins as its dataset? Obviously we only have so many tools, but I kinda wonder if it is just as simple as looking at the October value. I suspect it isn't for him, but, even if that was all a person did, using that dataset, you'd be right 80% of the time. The years previous to 2018, the NAO averaged closer to neutral, though still positive, than in 2018. I'm going to venture a guess that his 4 variables are from one of the following QBO, ENSO state, solar state, Oct. NAO average, AMO.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    By the way, this past October's averaged NAO value was -1.41
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I feel like if I stared at that data long enough, I might be able to figure out Isotherm's formula, lol. Here's the location of the data set for those who may want to look too: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, I wonder how that eventual shake up will go down. Will we flip to a + one some summer in the future, or will we just get a winter with one at some point regardless of the preceding summer or fall. What do you think about this: I went through and looked at the CPCs data set for the NAO and tried to pick out the summers preceding a mean Jan NAO of at least -1, from 1972 - 2012 (just an arbitrary number I picked to keep this image smaller). Red underlines are the preceding summers and black are Octobers. The big recent year of a -NAO (2009 - 10) actually had pretty negative numbers in the summer (sorry looks like I underlined the wrong October for 2009 - 10, but just look below that lowest black line). Other than 2009 - 10, Januaries that average a negative NAO typically have an October value that is near neutral or positive. Probably a warm signal for that month in our area. Again, other than 09 - 10, the preceding summers tended to be neutral to positive as well. I threw 94 - 95 in there because it had a highly +NAO average for the preceding summer, but still gave a positive value in the winter.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    WPC rather optimistic about precip. getting back north, days 5 - 6, not so much on it being wintery though:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wonder if the Canadian blocking would be higher latitude this year if it wasn't for the super, ultra SPV? Some of these lower latitude blocking episodes have coincided with isotherm's predictions and +AAM states, they just don't get as far north as they might have without the SPV
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Longer than usual EPS to show a variety of things Next week threat, then zonal coolish, then what looks like a severe threat, and then cold signal again.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    The last frame hadn't loaded on that Euro strat map when i posted it, but here it is now:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro also getting a little punchy with the strat late in the run: some of that even shows up in lower down in the Pac at H5: If we can get that lobe of the SPV/TPV positioned just right over the Aleutians, we can hopefully get some ridging over AK. But, I'd say there is a chance, at least at this range, that it could shift right back over AK instead of the Aleutians. A further hypothetical, as noted by Masiello earlier in the year, -NAOs are often preceded by that sort of a low.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro suppressed again, but UKMET offers a compromise between the OP GFS and Euro:
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