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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    15z RAP FWIW:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hvward had a good post earlier this AM in the NC Mountains/ foothills thread about how the NAM might be handling the set up better because it was a "gridded" model, as oppose to the Euro/ UK which are "spherical". Apparently this allows the NAM to do better with small, punchy vorts moving in quickly one after another. 12z Euro:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro looks like it will be better than 0z, but maybe not quite as good as 6z. Splitting hairs though.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I didn’t think it could get more NAMtastic but it will on this run at least. On my phone so can’t post maps.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the 6z Euro for y'all too:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro still drier than the NAM, but hands down the best it has looked for the I-40 corridor in TN
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think I've looked at the interaction between the two pieces of energy over CA and the Rockies til I'm crosseyed. Main piece is still the one off shore. I think it's basically go time now. Have to wait and see exactly how precip breaks out and how all that interaction plays out across the Rockies. NAM just keeps the energy together more, despite the squish coming in from the north. RGEM just isn't quite out that far yet on TT, but looks like it could go either way If it was just up to how well the energy survives crossing the Rockies, I might be more inclined to side with the NAM, since sometimes these pieces are more energetic, but the Euro really, really wants to suppress with the N piece: but I don't know that it would take much for something more NAM like to happen. CMC likes Tellico's idea above, it almost turns the corner.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah @Carvers Gap to poke the bear a bit, check out the 18z CMC:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z GFS looks north from 12z too. Not quite as nice as the NAM, but still quite a jump.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    3km NAM looks tasty as well:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Good old fashioned NAMing at 18z:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET trying to come north too, still rather suppressed, but much less so than 12z yesterday:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Our little shortwave west of CA still looks stout this AM and a nice moisture feed from the STJ in the Pac: I feel like it might be a little more potent when all is said and done.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro also looks like it has some convection parallel to the Gulf Coast. If that happened it could cut off the moisture to an extent. How long has it been since we've even had a chance to worry about Gulf convection cutting off moisture though, lol.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro looking better with the moisture in southern plains: Looks like a little more SW flow, but its so close. What a weird set up in regards to its details. Lots of lil vorts in the southern stream too. The flow is almost precisely W --> E any variation to either NW or SW could produce very different results.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    It would be kind of a consummation for this winter if we got the look at hour 84, only to fizzle out and suppress as it moves east.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    1/3 of EPS members are north enough to make it interesting at this range:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    In fact here it is as of now: Wish I had included CA for size, it is small but fiesty.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    So on second thought, I kinda think the piece of energy over the Pacific right now is a key here: Euro swings it in underneath the N stream shortwave and squishes it while the NAM: swings it out much more intact. Not saying the NAM will be right here, just that it is a touchy set up.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the Euro is going to come in about the same as 0z, or maybe a little north, depending on the frame you look at. To my eyes anyway, just not a huge difference. But this seems to me to be sort of a hair trigger set up. To get precip you have to have two things, moisture and forcing. We have moisture at 500 and 700 mbs: But a shortwave cuts off that flow as it swings through: Now look how differently the NAM handles that piece: The big HP looks like a done deal, we want to root for more return flow and it wouldn't take much given that the flow is basically W to E ahead of it on all models. Maybe there is reason to be hopeful as these shortwaves can sometimes amp up last minute....or at least suppression = more dry out time. Hopefully we can eek out a few EPS hits.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hvward, a met over in the SE mountains and foothills thread, brought up the NAVGEM scoring a coup DEC 2017. As I understand it, NAVGEM is generally the most progressive model and even it gets more precip north than the UKMET:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    looks like it, and check out the face profile over SE KY:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET does something odd with the energy, it pushed it ENE and washes it out, where the NAM and GFS kick more out. Euro at 0z was a compromise between the two camps, we'll see what it says in about an hour.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    GEFs and GFS like the idea of the second piece possibly coming out of TX: UKMET says nope and suppression, though it is further north with the first piece of energy:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    On the one hand I can buy into that, since the flow seems to have been more progressive than modeled this winter, but on the other hand, it is the NAM, builder of hopes and crusher of dreams
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