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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think some of the wishy-washy, waffly-doffly SE ridgeish looks at H5 we've been seeing in the 10 days+ range, may have to do with another Pac jet extension, triggered by a Siberian High descent and subsequent low formation in the pac (much smaller than the last one). High descent circled in black and low development circled in red: and here is what happens with the jet, notice that it gets stronger then weakens and gets more broken up:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight Ukie: Looks like, at least for now, the difference is energy over the midwest that turns the midlevel flow out of the south and mess up thermals. Ukie doesn't have it in the same place some of the other globals do: Ukie: CMC (as the most prominent example):
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight Thursday into Friday AM
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's not even finished snowing yet over NE TN, but figured this would do for us lustful snow hounds:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    It closes off an isobar in the NC foothills, perhaps indicative of a leeside mesolow.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the 21z RAP will be nice to Eastern areas from Knoxville northeast. It's about 75% finished.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Para GFS looks better for that system at Happy Hour:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Para GFS offers yet another solution on model roulette:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the latest RGEM animation to go with John's totals:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry I pulled the wrong run. John has the most recent one above.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Crapola, sorry y'all, I pulled the 12z RGEM. Thanks for the actual one John!
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Good we have a theme for this one now..
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    But is the NAM a conjuror of cheap tricks
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    SREF H5 mean looks more...energetic...with the energy.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I tried anticipating the happy hour GFS a couple of days ago, and I failed miserably. But hey, I'll always have the SREFs. On a topical note, here is a dramatic rendering of tnweathernut's PBP. (I can't take credit for it):
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    NOOOOOOOO!
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    You're not wrong
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Speaking of my own backyard (and probably screwing myself in the bargain), I am just SW of the 3000' Frozen Head mts and have noticed here that we can sometimes squeeze out some extra precip if it is coming in from the SSW (up the valley and then up the plateau, and then up the higher mts). Some of the hi res models have been showing something that looks like that. Not sure if it is some synoptic/ mesoscale feature or the terrain though, in terms of what the models are showing.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Seems like y'all always get missed. Y'all deserve a Miller B that hammers you and warm noses us. (I hate Miller Bs, lol).
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ye Olden NAM suite looks a little south at 12z. I, of course, like it, on account of the southern Morgan County dollop. It's track looks like just a classic one for TN, but with an air mass just a little too marginal for everyone.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is also how the 6z Euro sees it unfolding:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie is also N/W:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the RGEM has decided it doesn't like Sullivan county, but favors Washington and Carter counties: Meanwhile the 12km NAM seems to have decided to just do its own thing and keeps the snow going for most of its run from Nashville east: You be you NAM: 3km NAM has some nice bands: Here is the RAP, for fun, since we are entering its long range now: It will be interesting to see what synoptic evolution the WRF-ARW core shows when it gets in range later this evening. That core has been spitting out some big solutions on the SREFs
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