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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Couldn't resist: Sorry Jeff
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    The end of the 6z run this AM looking pretty nippy too. Snow showers and low 20s for higher elevations. Almost time to start looking at 50 EPS members for true weenie runs, lol.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Chilly early Fall AM at Obed definitely saw some frost on the way there
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some Wunderground stations reporting freezing or below up here on the plateau this AM. The closest one to me is at 39.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wish I could react with both the #sad and #thanks reactions to the above. But I only get one, lol Now that October is closing in, it will be interesting to see what the NAO averages out for that month. We have Isotherm's statement late last winter that (I think) 2 out of the 3 upcoming winters would feature, on average a -NAO. I think Tellico also mentioned something like that based on maybe the QBO??? and that it would be interesting to see that feature wit ha La Nina, but I don't remember exactly what it was and couldn't find it. The post I started this thread with, looks at the NAO in Oct. Haven't worked myself up this winter to the sort of effort I put into that previous post, so this is all I have to add for now. We must hope for the following pattern in early - mid Jan, lol: As John said though .008% chance of it, lol.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Seen on MRX at 5 PM, 9/23/20 Getting twitchy enough to start looking at Hydrometeor classification.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yum: The more interaction between Teddy and the mid latitudes pulls down more cooler and drier air for us. Saw some DPs in the 30s on the 12z run.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    The Para GFS still wants to swing the trough through. Not saying it's right, but was reading the AFDs from Grand Junction this AM (never hurts to dream of cool and snow, right? lol) and they seem somewhat skeptical of the Euro's cutoff solution (not throwing it out for sure though). Maybe this system flip flops in the 5 day window and turns out a little more progressive? It's 2020, so probably not, but I guess it is still on, at least, the edge of the table, that the front might get more of a push. I'll take any damage high latitude energy can do to that Atlantic High.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hopefully it makes it. I'm starting to get worried that it is going to get hung up on the western edge of the Atlantic high. A few days ago it was plowing through on both the Euro and GFS, but it seems to be trending to want to dump more west now on both. boo At least it looks like a certainty we get a mini humidity reprieve this weekend.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I bet leaf forecasts will be tough this year. So much variety across East TN in terms of rain this summer. My first summer on the plateau and I feel like I've lived in a rainforest. Some of the sweetgums and even an odd maple here and there are starting to get a bit of color here.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Messing around with wind forecasts on the Euro this AM and saw this: 65 knot/ 74 mph gust in Crossville??? For those of you who have experience with these tropical remnants moving overhead, is this realistic? If so, glad I had a dying tree cut down last week. Is the "Max Gust" parameter, just the Max gust the model sees as possible, but not necessarily probable?
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I drove through the rains in Knoxville yesterday morning on my way to Kingsport. That had to have been one of the rainiest, dreariest summer days I can remember. Flashbacks to the past two Februaries. Hydroplaning and 3 wrecks in downtown Knox. On the radar it almost looked like a deformation zone. Let's get another upper low on that track in January, lol. Then in my way back from Kingsport I got the line I highlighted at the end of the gif. That one was fun too, lol. Shelf cloud and downpours. I think powell may have a pic of it in the late summer thread. As y'all have been saying, it really has been a tale of two MRX areas this summer. Up on the plateau in MoCo, it seems like we are mini Johns, with rain almost every day (but not as bad as he's had it). On the other hand, my dad in Kingsport was talking about how his lawn was getting brown.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Took a socially distant camping trip to finish some writing work to the CO, UT, and NM Rockies. https://imgur.com/a/E4bDAlg Some low humidity and cool night vides to help get through the humidity these days
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hopefully we get a small taste of it soon. Really hoping Isaias can help pull a trough through for dewpoint relief. It's like walking out into a swimming pool when I go outside, lol
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hail on LeConte and 38 degrees: https://www.facebook.com/LeConteLodge/photos/pb.10150118008000724.-2207520000../10164210396465724/?type=3&theater
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was just referring to this week, lol. Sorry, probably could have phrased that better. I can't take any more freezes. We had a fire going all day last Saturday, (I think...) I was watching the radar and satellite today and noticed some storms over the upper plateau that looked terrain based. MRX mentioned a wave helping too: They even made a lil outflow boundary into KY
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Freezes and snow in Frozen Head to terrain based storms on the upper plateau in a week. woot woot!
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    LeConte hit 12 this AM
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Same situation here. We hit 31 at about 6 AM, but when I looked out everything was still wet. About an hour later a nice thin crust of ice. We covered everything with some bed sheets and that seems to have done the trick.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z GFS for posterity: and EPS:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    It completely died before it made it to my place in Morgan County; I didn't even see a drop of rain. Some nice wind gusts as what was left came through, but that was it.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    This convective system looks pretty healthy to me, compared to the CAMs anyway: Good and sunny upstream too, between it and me, although beyond that I'm not too good at ready the mesoscale analysis pages for severe/ strong storm parameters. To me it looks like it will make a nice charge Paris -> Nashville -> Crossville -> Knoxville
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I know. I wish I could! I would appreciate even the cold and snow out there, if it meant things were back to normal. I'm sure now that there is a nice ridge over the SW, next year will be troughs again, lol. Some of my friends and I are going to try to do our own SW Trip in July, even though the college's trip is cancelled. We usually go through OK, but I want to see KS more, so will be heading through its underbelly. Like a Fayetteville, AR (friend lives there) to Wichita to Dodge City to Pueblo type route. OBS today = Pollen of Doom + some wind that reminds me of N Arizona. I don't know how things are down in the valley, but it has been rough with some wind (very minor) damage on the plateau
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