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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Queen City posted this in the SE forum, but here are the EPS member surface lows over the course of the potential storm: It's hard to see, on my gif, but there are quite a few ~1000 mb and some sub 1000 mb lows to out SE on the 12z run. NAVGEM is, well, the NAVGEM, but it seems to show a compromise like the EPS mean: It really wants to cut, badly, but that N stream energy bullies it S and E and it turns into an inland runner. 18z GEFS is further east than the OP, likely it is splitting the difference between the two camps: And there are some members that cut the 500 mb energy off SE of us or at least push it east of us as the N stream energy rushes in and phases. I think a lot is going to depend on the speed and timing of the N stream energy as to how much latitude the S stream energy can gain before it passes our longitude. I think the N. Stream energy is over Kamchatka or Mongolia now.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS means: MSLP: 500mb: 850 temps: precip: whether any of this plays out or not, that was a pretty 12z EPS run
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie is almost there, but further W in its evolution (my access only goes out to 144 hrs)
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    After the Nov 30 - Dec 1 storm, the 12z GEFS haz a confuzelment regarding the cut off that the op has now lost:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'd also add that the EPS has a healthy number of members that see both windows (Nov 30 - Dec 1 and Dec 4 - 6), but many of those members see ways to make both or at least one storm, mostly rain. Still, one of the most interesting patterns I've seen since I've been on Americanwx. After the past couple of years, hard not to expect it all to disappear as we get within a few days.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    John covered the Nov 30 - Dec 1 storm, so I'm gonna look at the pattern after that for the oddball cutoff. Looks like the Euro is also trying to do that big ridge bridge at the end of its run: so it's op would probably support, after day 10, a similar cut off solution to what the GFS has been showing for a few days (yesterday's 18z run shown here, by popular request): Even the smoothed EPS mean has a pretty strong signal for over-the-top ridging:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    "Eall is earfoðlic eorþan rice, onwendeð wyrda gesceaft weoruld under heofonum." --Summary of model roulette. This is what happens when there are happy hour weenie runs and I have to replace plumbing all day. Lol.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    That is a beast of a storm the Euro is advertising in John's post above. Surface Pressure drops a little over 20 mb in 24 hours and our temps would really crash as the front came through. Even though it doesn't bomb out in a location to give us a ton of snow, I would love to watch it develop if it came it pass in the way the Euro shows. It would look at feel very wintery and just be fun to track. It looks like four pieces of energy ultimately phase over the course of several days: Each piece, as it rotates through, would produce some upslope enhancement for the typical areas. EPS members aren't loading on weathermodels, so I can't see how enthusiastic or not the members are. I wouldn't say the GEFS members are wildly supportive of the Euro's solution, but there are some similar hits. Timing seems to be the key, as it usually is with these big phasing storms, when the models see them 8 - 10 days out. But, here is a mean of the 3 major ensembles, GEFS, EPS, and GEPS: all show a ridge building in that time period across the Rockies, which would allow energy to drop in and pool somewhere in the OH Valley and/ or Great Lakes, it just a question of whether or not the pieces of energy catch each other and where they do that. Overnight Canadian model shows what could happen if all the timing is off.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting analysis of the NAO for TN:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS sees a window for eastern forum areas around Dec 1: GEFS has some southern lows too, at that time (sorry couldn't find its city charts on Weathermodels) I would still rate it at something like a 10% or less chance, but it is a window, at least for now. EDIT to add that I think this is the window John was talking about last night.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    One of those times I wish the GFS had just run about 48 more hours: I think it would have been an epic fantasy storm.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    A little Saturday surprise at the end of the 12z GFS today:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Frozen Head lookout tower, this AM https://imgur.com/a/mibN5oc
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ensembles past day 10 look pretty similar over NA this AM to what they have looked like the past few days. Really unique tilt to the ridge over the western US, at least as long as I've been looking at ensembles (not too many years). Kinda positively tilted. Using the CMC ensemble this AM since there weren't really any big changes to the GEFS or EPS.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Better than an endless SE ridge: I wholeheartedly embrace any and all upslope opportunities.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS member 16 at day 14 FTW:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    GEFS and EPS look pretty similar out in magical la la Land this AM. According to the GEFS we've hit the point where an airmass that is above average in Canada can = below average here. GEFS: EPS: all over 280 hours out in early Dec. Looks similar to what we kept seeing for the past 2 years at that time range. We will see if this year is any different.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I've been thinking about the past couple of days, goes back to the discussions of the wild fires and aerosols in the lower strat. Disregarding the whole talk of volcanic winter Masiello brought up a while back, I wonder if there will be some impact on MJO convection. I remember in 2018- 19 there was some talk of the SSW or split or whatever it was, forcing some cooler air towards the equator at in the 30mb and up range and that this might have helped fuel some of the convection over the dreaded Maritime Continent region. It was this post from Masiello that got me thinking about it: Convection over the Indian Ocean has been ok, the past couple of weeks and obviously tropical cyclones have also been healthy this year ,so not sure if there is a meaningful correlation.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting. It seemed like the last couple of years everything tended to set up west of where the long range ensembles showed it. Those nice -EPOs would end up being over the Bering strait instead of AK. If the same holds this year, the overnight EPS would look similar to the GEFS, in terms of the sort of 500 mb pattern we might like. 0z EPS: 6z GEFS:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think 2020 has beat the grump out of me. Smiling and redirecting punches is all I have left, lol. But I'm sure by Jan 28, if we are staring down a hr 240+ pattern change, I will find a grump recharge. Some of the usual suspects on wxtwitter suspects have already started the Ural high could = a SSW train. I can't really see anything that looks that promising, other than a displacement of cold and 50 mb heights over AK, the Bering Sea, and Siberia. So, pretty much what we saw last year with displacement that would ultimately end in a reconsolidated and stronger SPV. We will see how it goes this year.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not sure I can add much to the Masiello discussion. Looks like tropical convection is going to be quiet for a while after the TCs in the Indian Ocean die off at least according to the 0z Euro. And I think that aligns with what y'all said above last night. 12z GFS is a little more optimistic about later development of TCs in that area, so I guess we'll see how that plays out. The normal trouble areas for us during winter look pretty quiet right now, but I'm not sure if current wavelengths translate tropical influence the same ways they will mid Dec - early March. Webb was also wondering whether or not a solar flare would interfere with any attempt at a -AO. -NAO this winter, but there no follow up on it yet, and it has been 10 days. Educational exchanges on that tweet thread too.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Welcome Blue Moon!
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hey, at least for once the Euro has underestimated the strength of cold push with a trough. Yea its a pretty quick swipe, but some decent fire weather looks likely early next week: First gif is a trend over the past 5 runs of the Euro's 850 mb temp anomaly and the second is a forecast of 2m temps.Monday morning through Wednesday PM. Sometimes, I guess, you have to reverse psychologizeify the models.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Honestly I just saw “volcanic winter” and thought: ahh some good banter fodder. For myself, I just don’t know what I think. Not necessarily just about that tweet thread, but about this winter. I still feel burnt out after all the models showed the epic pattern shifts in the long range last winter only to evaporate as we got closer to verification time. Not sure I am ready for serious speculation yet and the time sink that entails. and to be fair, this whole year has kind of been a drain. For my part, at least for now, I’m in a “see where the tropical convection decides to set up,” and go from there mode.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Good question. I would like to think it means more aerosols of the kind that would lead to more snow for me, but given my experience with masiello, he probably means it in a strict academic sense that doesn't necessarily mean anything like it. I put it here since I’m not sure how he means it or what it would mean for us, but ya know, I gots to have hope, lol.
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