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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro mighty close to making the jump across the Apps:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    They've been pretty consistent for both our areas with a one inch mean and no members showing 0.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    @BhamParker Here is a similar, but not identical set up from Dec 21, 2018. I mention it because I chased it up to 6000 feet and here is how the elevation changed the accumulations, at least as it was underway. I had to leave at about 6000 feet on Mt LeConte, I just didn't have the right gear for this: 6" in about 3 hours and a 20 mph wind gusting to 30+ But below that, here is what it looked like at about 5000-5500 feet: 4500 - 5000 feet: 2500 - 3000 feet: Trail head for Bullhead trail up Mt Leconte: I don't know if you are a hiker, but Bullhead trail is accessible to Gatlinburg and gets you up above 6000 feet. It's a heckuva hike though and this storm looks like it has a much better upslope component. Most of this came from a quick changeover from 6000 feet around 5 AM down to 3000 feet by 10 AM and them on down to the base of the mt. I think 3000 feet probably did a lot better than these pictures depict, since I had to leave early and the one I label 2500 - 3000 feet had no snow when I went up. All that accumulation was by the time I got back to that part of the trail.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z GFS looks like it almost wanted to run the SLP from Macon, GA to Charlotte, NC, but randomly jumps at hour 36 back to the TN/ NC border: I guess we're just at "see what happens time" now. One thing I did notice today was that there was a stronger wedge (from obs at southerwx) and a little bit of a leeside low near Asheville: That's now transitioned to a more of a diffuse area of lower pressure and the WPC even has a couple of what I think are inverted surface troughs and a Low hanging out in the piedmont. This may play a role in how the surface low behaves too, but honestly I'm not sure:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, their 1 -2 for Roan Mountain seemed a little low to me, but maybe they mean the town of Roan Mountain and not the 5500 - 6000 peak. Did I read earlier that you were getting a cabin near Gatlinburg @BhamParker?
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    The WRF NMM showed a similar solution at 12z: That would be as much of a run for my location as I can probably hope for.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z RGEM plows the surface low right up the TN/ NC border.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it, lol. 18z RGEM is coming in further SE.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z NAM is west again, but shows some change over in Middle TN toward Monday early AM
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Check out the streamer off of Lake Michigan on the UKMET, aimed right at Frozen Head
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the Ukie SLP gif. The gif jumps north at the end because the SLP drops off the SE sector view:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie also has that SLP reflection off the GA coast to pull on the Gulf low some, hopefully a good sign that a global sees that too.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, I'm only out to 30 hours or so, and it is definitely SE some. Will post the gif when it finishes on F5 weather.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's popping a low pretty far south in the Gulf 1013 mb SE of Brownsville as compared to 1012 off the coast of Corpus Christi at 0z
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Ukie might be a good test for the front theory. Looks like it is already pressing it further south on this run compared to 0z. Only out to 12 hours for now.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe I answered my own question lol. Interesting to look at 10m wind on the same three mesoscale models: Nam 3k: WRF: RGEM: It does seem like there is a correlation between how far south the front makes it and how eastward the SLP moves. The WRF-ARW gets it a little further south and has the most easterly of tracks: It also gives a little more umphh to a surface low off the GA coast which tugs on the Gulf low a bit. Could be a question of how the convection impacts the SLP formation?
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is where it looks like the front is on the latest SPC mesoscale analysis's windbarbs:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Good question, but I'm not sure how I could figure that out. I think it would have to be a mesoscale model. I'm looking at the RGEM and NAM and WRF on TT, but having trouble seeing it in enough detail on the simulated satellite. Here are the gifs with a fresh satellite. See what you think: 3km NAM: RGEM: WRF: Maybe there is a better parameter to figure out where the front is now? I'm not sure those cloud depictions are all that helpful since they seem pretty course. Current satellite (sandwich depiction with visible and IR)
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not looking at any other aspect of what the GFS is showing for now, that is some upslope heaven at 60 hours: a fetch at 850 right off of lakes Superior and Michigan
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    It gets really close to jumping it up the eastern slope of the Apps. The surface front has made it to around 100 miles (maybe) off the Gulf Coast, it will be interesting to see exactly where the SLP forms on that front
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    There is moisture over E TN up to 700 mb and even 500 mb over parts of eastern KY, so the upper low backing the flow could provide lift for it: 700 mb relative humidity
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    It is really bullish on the n stream upper low as it swings through
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z RGEM looks like it will come in a bit east as of around 40 hours into the run. Looks like more N stream interaction sooner on this run compared to 6z.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro showing some similar mixing, to the 3km NAM over western TN:
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